FINISHED
Astralis vs Alliance 1:2: result and AI prediction
Astralis and Alliance played on 1 October — playoffs, upper bracket quarter-final, Stake Ranked Episode 4 2026: the series ended 1:2. The AI models' bet: Over 2.5 maps at 2.13 — 11 of 15 models chose it; the bet won.
- Stake Ranked Episode 4 2026
- Playoffs, upper bracket quarter-final
- Best of three
- Stream
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Over 2.5 maps
2.13AI models' pick · 11 of 15 for this bet, 4 for others
What the odds were
Since the first snapshot Astralis have drifted: 1.56 → 1.61, Alliance — 2.56 → 2.56. The money is going on Alliance.
abbreviations
- 1, 2 — Astralis or Alliance wins the series
- H1, H2 — map handicap: −1.5 means winning the series without dropping a map, +1.5 means taking at least one map
- O, U — total maps over or under: over 2.5 means the series goes to a third map
How the series went
- map 1Alliance70 min
- map 2Astralis36 min
- map 3Alliance78 min
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on over 2.5 maps — the bet won. 4 more bet on an Astralis win — the bet lost.
Astralis have been grinding their way through this run. Four of their last five series finished 1-2 or 2-1, and the opposition came from deep in the Valve ranking — 100 Thieves 40th, Betclic 104th, Sangal 134th. Twelve of their 17 best-of-threes have gone to a third map, and the lopsided pool explains why: 0-5 on Dust2, 2-5 on Nuke, 0-2 on Anubis against an 11-4 record on Ancient. So over 2.5 maps at 2.13 rests on the way Astralis themselves play out a series. The veto splits conveniently as well: Anubis is their first ban and Ancient is usually their pick, while Alliance ban Mirage and have taken Inferno in 9 of 13 chances, a map where Astralis sit at 3-4. Alliance, for their part, have only reached a third map 4 of 14 times.
Where we could be wrong
The two most recent Alliance wins came without dropping a map, 2-0 over magic and 2-0 over TYLOO, and both sides have shown this season that they can lose a map without a fight: Alliance are 1-6 on Dust2, Astralis 0-5. The veto is still unknown, and in the upper bracket quarter-final at Stake Ranked Episode 4 one side could simply hand over the opening map and leave the series short of a decider.
Form, rosters and maps
Astralis
20th in the Valve ranking · 1446 points
roster · player rating over six months
- HooXi5.49
- jabbi6.24
- ryu6.05
- Staehr6.39
- phzy6.13
recent series · 5 wins, 5 losses
- L1-2100 Thieves#40Stake Pulse Beat II26.09
- W2-1Betclic#104Stake Pulse Beat II25.09
- W2-0FOKUS#43Stake Pulse Beat II21.09
- W2-1Sangal#134Stake Pulse Beat II21.09
- L1-25star#89FISSURE Playground 310.09
- L0-2BetBoom#9FISSURE Playground 309.09
- W2-1G2#11FISSURE Playground 308.09
- L1-2G2#11Esports World Cup 202619.08
- W2-1Ninjas in Pyjamas#27Esports World Cup 202616.08
- L0-2Falcons#2Esports World Cup 202613.08
maps over 90 days
23–24, round difference +59; 12 of 17 best-of-three series went to a third map
Rounds won on the CT side 55%, on the T side 50%, pistol rounds 48%
5 days since the last series, 6 maps this week
map pool over 90 days
| Map | W–L | Rounds ± | Picks | Bans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ancient | 11–4 | +43 | 13 | |
| Cache | 6–2 | +41 | 1 | |
| Inferno | 3–4 | +2 | 2 | 2 |
| Nuke | 2–5 | +7 | 1 | 4 |
| Dust2 | 0–5 | −19 | 8 | |
| Mirage | 1–2 | −4 | 6 | |
| Anubis | 0–2 | −11 | 14 |
Bans Anubis first in 13 of 17 series
Alliance
22nd in the Valve ranking · 1402 points
roster · player rating over six months
- twist6.06
- eraa6.61
- bobeksde6.22
- upE5.75
- Avid6.06
recent series · 4 wins, 6 losses
- L0-23DMAX#311win Private Club 126.09
- L1-2SINNERS#531win Private Club 125.09
- L0-2MIBR#16FISSURE Playground 311.09
- W2-0magic#23FISSURE Playground 310.09
- W2-0TYLOO#18FISSURE Playground 310.09
- L0-2Legacy#7FISSURE Playground 309.09
- W2-0FaZe#13FISSURE Playground 308.09
- L0-2TeletubisieUnited21 Season 5426.08
- L1-2Phantom Academy#219United21 Season 5424.08
- W2-0ENCE ProspectsUnited21 Season 5420.08
maps over 90 days
14–19, round difference −40; 4 of 14 best-of-three series went to a third map
Rounds won on the CT side 51%, on the T side 44%, pistol rounds 42%
5 days since the last series, 5 maps this week
map pool over 90 days
| Map | W–L | Rounds ± | Picks | Bans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inferno | 6–4 | −4 | 9 | |
| Ancient | 5–5 | −4 | 2 | |
| Dust2 | 1–6 | −22 | 2 | |
| Nuke | 1–3 | −10 | 2 | |
| Cache | 1–1 | 0 | 9 | |
| Anubis | — | 1 | ||
| Mirage | — | 11 |
Bans Mirage first in 11 of 12 series
Valve ranking as of 7 September
