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Aurora Gaming vs 9z 2:0: result and AI prediction
Aurora Gaming and 9z played on 16 October — group stage, decider, Thunderpick World Championship 2026: the series ended 2:0. The AI models' bet: Aurora Gaming −1.5 map handicap at 2.50 — 6 of 15 models chose it; the bet won.
- Thunderpick World Championship 2026
- Group stage, decider
- Best of three
- Stream
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Aurora Gaming −1.5 map handicap
2.50AI models' pick · 6 of 15 on this bet · 2 more in the same direction
What the odds were
Since the first snapshot Aurora Gaming have shortened: 1.52 → 1.43, 9z — 2.78 → 3.23. The money is going on Aurora Gaming.
abbreviations
- 1, 2 — Aurora Gaming or 9z wins the series
- H1, H2 — map handicap: −1.5 means winning the series without dropping a map, +1.5 means taking at least one map
- O, U — total maps over or under: over 2.5 means the series goes to a third map
How the series went
- map 1Aurora Gaming59 min
- map 2Aurora Gaming40 min
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on Aurora Gaming −1.5 on maps — the bet won. 2 more chose close bets in the same direction: an Aurora Gaming win. 5 more bet on under 2.5 maps — the bet won. The other 2 bet on 9z +1.5 on maps — the bet lost.
- 6 of 15H1 (−1.5)our betodds 2.50DeepSeek
GrokKimiDeepSeek FlashMistralXiaomi MiMowon - 2 of 151same directionodds 1.43ChatGPTMiniMaxwon
- 5 of 15U 2.5odds 1.75Claude
GeminiQwen
GLMNemotron Superwon - 2 of 15H2 (+1.5)odds 1.64
SonarNemotron Ultralost
Odds — the price at the moment the AI model answered.
Aurora Gaming have won six of their last ten series, and the opposition has been serious: a 2-0 over Spirit, the top team in the Valve ranking, plus a series with Vitality that Vitality edged 2-1. Over the same stretch 9z have four wins and six defeats, with a 13-20 map record across the last 90 days and a round difference of -44, against 39-24 and +89 for Aurora Gaming. The map pool points the same way: Anubis 9-3 with eight picks of their own, Nuke 7-2 and Mirage 10-6, while 9z are 3-7 on Nuke.
The market has moved towards Aurora Gaming across the past 18 hours, from 1.52 to 1.43, and we're backing the Aurora Gaming -1.5 map handicap at 2.50 on that gap. The counter-argument is fresh, though: 9z beat this same roster 2-0 a fortnight ago, and a single map dropped would sink the -1.5 bet.
Where we could be wrong
9z ban Anubis first almost every time, seven times in eight, and steer the series towards Dust2 or Nuke, where on 14 October they took the second map 13-1. Aurora Gaming's series have gone to a third map in 10 of 24, and a decisive group match usually makes both sides more cautious in the veto.
Form, rosters and maps
Aurora Gaming
9th in the Valve ranking · 1716 points
roster · player rating over six months
- XANTARES6.23
- woxic6.21
- Jimpphat6.30
- kyxsan5.55
- Wicadia6.42
recent series · 6 wins, 4 losses
- W2-0Ninjas in Pyjamas#18Thunderpick World Championship 202615.10
- L0-29z#17Thunderpick World Championship 202614.10
- W2-0Spirit#1ESL Pro League Season 2411.10
- L1-2Vitality#3ESL Pro League Season 2410.10
- W2-01win#38ESL Pro League Season 2409.10
- W2-1FURIA#7ESL Pro League Season 2406.10
- W2-1BetBoom#11ESL Pro League Season 2405.10
- L0-2Falcons#6ESL Pro League Season 2404.10
- W2-09z#17ESL Pro League Season 2403.10
- L1-3Vitality#3StarLadder StarSeries Fall 202620.09
maps over 90 days
39–24, round difference +89; 10 of 24 best-of-three series went to a third map
Rounds won on the CT side 60%, on the T side 47%, pistol rounds 55%
1 day since the last series, 9 maps this week
map pool over 90 days
| Map | W–L | Rounds ± | Picks | Bans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirage | 10–6 | +8 | 3 | 1 |
| Anubis | 9–3 | +41 | 8 | |
| Dust2 | 5–4 | +15 | 3 | 6 |
| Nuke | 7–2 | +25 | 2 | |
| Cache | 4–4 | 0 | 7 | |
| Inferno | 4–4 | +2 | 6 | |
| Ancient | 0–1 | −2 | 1 | 14 |
Bans Ancient first in 14 of 17 series
9z
17th in the Valve ranking · 1543 points
roster · player rating over six months
- meyern5.74
- max5.88
- luchov6.28
- dgt6.39
- HUASOPEEK6.09
recent series · 4 wins, 6 losses
- L1-2Falcons#6Thunderpick World Championship 202615.10
- W2-0Aurora#9Thunderpick World Championship 202614.10
- L0-2FURIA#7ESL Pro League Season 2407.10
- W2-0BetBoom#11ESL Pro League Season 2406.10
- L0-2Natus Vincere#34ESL Pro League Season 2405.10
- W2-0TYLOO#44ESL Pro League Season 2404.10
- L0-2Aurora#9ESL Pro League Season 2403.10
- L1-2G2#5FISSURE Playground 310.09
- L0-2MIBR#12FISSURE Playground 309.09
- W2-05star#80FISSURE Playground 308.09
maps over 90 days
13–20, round difference −44; 4 of 14 best-of-three series went to a third map
Rounds won on the CT side 50%, on the T side 43%, pistol rounds 52%
1 day since the last series, 5 maps this week
map pool over 90 days
| Map | W–L | Rounds ± | Picks | Bans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuke | 3–7 | −19 | 2 | 1 |
| Dust2 | 3–4 | −22 | 4 | |
| Mirage | 4–2 | +14 | 4 | |
| Cache | 2–2 | +4 | 1 | |
| Inferno | 1–3 | −14 | 3 | |
| Ancient | 0–2 | −7 | 2 | |
| Anubis | — | 7 |
Bans Anubis first in 7 of 8 series
head-to-head series, last two years
3 series: Aurora Gaming 2 wins, 9z 1 win
- L0-2Inferno 11-13, Nuke 1-13Thunderpick World Championship 202614.10
- W2-0Dust2 13-3, Mirage 13-11ESL Pro League Season 2403.10
- W2-0Nuke 13-1, Dust2 13-5Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 202614.06
Valve ranking as of 5 October
