24 Oct
Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz: AI prediction, PGL Masters Bucharest
Aurora Gaming and TheMongolz meet on 24 October — group stage, round 1, PGL Masters Bucharest 2026, best of three. The AI models' bet: Aurora Gaming −1.5 map handicap at 1.92 — 14 of 15 models chose it. Below: the analysis, the odds, team form by series, rosters with player ratings and the map pool.
- PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
- Group stage, round 1
- Best of three
- Stream
published UTC
AI models' pick: Aurora Gaming −1.5 map handicap
1.92AI models' pick · 14 of 15 for this bet, 1 for others
Match odds
Since the first snapshot, the series-winner line has not moved.
abbreviations
- 1, 2 — Aurora Gaming or TheMongolz wins the series
- H1, H2 — map handicap: −1.5 means winning the series without dropping a map, +1.5 means taking at least one map
- O, U — total maps over or under: over 2.5 means the series goes to a third map
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for Aurora Gaming −1.5 on maps. One more went for TheMongolz +1.5 on maps.
- 14 of 15H1 (−1.5)our betodds 1.92ChatGPTDeepSeek
Gemini
GrokKimiQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMiniMaxMistral
SonarXiaomi MiMoNemotron SuperNemotron Ultra - 1 of 15H2 (+1.5)odds 1.92Claude
Odds — the price at the moment the AI model answered.
Aurora Gaming have won seven of their last ten series, among them a 2-1 over Falcons from 6th in the ranking and a 2-0 sweep of Ninjas in Pyjamas. TheMongolz, over the same stretch, hold five wins and five defeats, one of them a 0-2 loss to 5star, who sit 80th. The gap in calibre shows up in the Valve ranking as well: 9th with 1716 points against 49th with 1318. Across the last 90 days Aurora Gaming are 43-27 on maps with a round difference of +93, while TheMongolz are 12-11 with +4.
Nuke 8-2, Anubis 9-4 and Mirage 10-6 leave Aurora Gaming with enough quality in almost any veto, even though Anubis has been TheMongolz's first ban on all nine occasions. The prices rate Aurora Gaming at 75% to take the series, and the −1.5 map handicap comes from the same skew; we're backing it at 1.92.
Where we could be wrong
The counter-argument is the history. Eight meetings over two years have gone five series to three in favour of TheMongolz, so this is an opponent Aurora Gaming know well and do not find comfortable. Their own best-of-threes have reached a third map 11 of 27 times, and with the veto still unknown the series could land on Inferno, where Aurora Gaming are 5-5 and where TheMongolz go most often.
Form, rosters and maps
Aurora Gaming
9th in the Valve ranking · 1716 points
roster · player rating over six months
- XANTARES6.23
- woxic6.18
- Jimpphat6.33
- kyxsan5.58
- Wicadia6.42
recent series · 7 wins, 3 losses
- W2-1Falcons#6Thunderpick World Championship 202618.10
- L0-2FURIA#7Thunderpick World Championship 202617.10
- W2-09z#17Thunderpick World Championship 202616.10
- W2-0Ninjas in Pyjamas#18Thunderpick World Championship 202615.10
- L0-29z#17Thunderpick World Championship 202614.10
- W2-0Spirit#1ESL Pro League Season 2411.10
- L1-2Vitality#3ESL Pro League Season 2410.10
- W2-01win#38ESL Pro League Season 2409.10
- W2-1FURIA#7ESL Pro League Season 2406.10
- W2-1BetBoom#11ESL Pro League Season 2405.10
maps over 90 days
43–27, round difference +93; 11 of 27 best-of-three series went to a third map
Rounds won on the CT side 59%, on the T side 47%, pistol rounds 53%
5 days since the last series, 5 maps this week
map pool over 90 days
| Map | W–L | Rounds ± | Picks | Bans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirage | 10–6 | +8 | 3 | 1 |
| Anubis | 9–4 | +36 | 8 | |
| Dust2 | 6–5 | +12 | 3 | 6 |
| Nuke | 8–2 | +29 | 2 | |
| Inferno | 5–5 | +8 | 6 | |
| Cache | 5–4 | +2 | 7 | |
| Ancient | 0–1 | −2 | 1 | 14 |
Bans Ancient first in 14 of 17 series
TheMongolz
49th in the Valve ranking · 1318 points
roster · player rating over six months
- nin95.93
- Techno4K5.44
- bLitz6.03
- 9106.60
- cobrazera6.03
recent series · 5 wins, 5 losses
- W2-0Alliance#241win Private Club 219.10
- L0-25star#80FISSURE Playground 309.09
- L1-2MIBR#12FISSURE Playground 308.09
- L0-2Falcons#6Esports World Cup 202620.08
- W2-0paiN#54Esports World Cup 202616.08
- L1-2Natus Vincere#34Esports World Cup 202615.08
- W1-0magic#23Esports World Cup 202612.08
- L1-2FaZe#26BLAST Bounty Summer 202631.07
- W2-0Wildcard#58BLAST Bounty Summer 2026: Closed Qualifier26.07
- W2-1HEROIC#15BLAST Bounty Summer 2026: Closed Qualifier24.07
maps over 90 days
12–11, round difference +4; 4 of 9 best-of-three series went to a third map
Rounds won on the CT side 53%, on the T side 47%, pistol rounds 48%
4 days since the last series, 2 maps this week
map pool over 90 days
| Map | W–L | Rounds ± | Picks | Bans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inferno | 3–4 | −8 | 4 | |
| Mirage | 2–2 | +4 | 2 | |
| Nuke | 1–3 | −11 | 1 | 3 |
| Dust2 | 3–1 | +7 | 2 | |
| Ancient | 2–1 | +7 | 3 | |
| Cache | 1–0 | +5 | 1 | 2 |
| Anubis | — | 9 |
Bans Anubis first in 9 of 9 series
head-to-head series, last two years
8 series: Aurora Gaming 3 wins, TheMongolz 5 wins · the last 5 below
- W2-0Overpass 13-11, Mirage 13-10PGL Astana 202613.05
- W2-0Inferno 13-6, Mirage 13-9BLAST Open Spring 202627.03
- L0-2Dust2 9-13, Mirage 11-13ESL Pro League Season 23 Stage 207.03
- L1-2Inferno 16-14, Mirage 10-13, Nuke 14-16Thunderpick World Championship 202519.10
- L0-3Mirage 14-16, Dust2 9-13, Nuke 4-13Esports World Cup 202524.08
Valve ranking as of 5 October
