1 Oct
BIG vs fnatic: AI prediction, Stake Ranked Episode 4
BIG and fnatic meet on 1 October — playoffs, upper bracket quarter-final, Stake Ranked Episode 4 2026, best of three. The AI models' bet: fnatic to win at 2.33 — 5 of 16 models chose it. Below: the analysis, the odds, team form by series, rosters with player ratings and the map pool.
- Stake Ranked Episode 4 2026
- Playoffs, upper bracket quarter-final
- Best of three
- Stream
published UTC
AI models' pick: fnatic to win
2.33AI models' pick · 5 of 16 on this bet · 4 more in the same direction
AI models
- 6O 2.5odds 2.04ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Gemini, Qwen, DeepSeek Flash, Xiaomi MiMo
- 52 — matches our betodds 2.33Grok, Kimi, GLM, Dots3-Note, Nemotron Super
- 4H2 (+1.5) — matches our betodds 1.47Claude, Mistral, Sonar, Nemotron Ultra
- 1U 2.5odds 1.75MiniMax
Match odds
Since the first snapshot BIG have drifted: 1.64 → 1.69, fnatic — 2.08 → 2.38. The money is going on fnatic.
The odds are buy prices on a prediction market: they carry no bookmaker margin, only the gap between the buy and sell prices.
abbreviations
- 1, 2 — BIG or fnatic wins the series
- H1, H2 — map handicap: −1.5 means winning the series without dropping a map, +1.5 means taking at least one map
- O, U — total maps over or under: over 2.5 means the series goes to a third map
AI prediction and analysis
6 of 16 AI models went for over 2.5 maps. 5 more went for a fnatic win. The other 5 chose other bets: a fnatic handicap and a total-maps bet. 9 are betting on the series result and 7 on the number of maps.
- 6 of 16O 2.5odds 2.04ChatGPTDeepSeekGeminiQwenDeepSeek FlashXiaomi MiMo
- 5 of 162our betodds 2.33GrokKimiGLMDots3-NoteNemotron Super
- 4 of 16H2 (+1.5)same directionodds 1.47ClaudeMistralSonarNemotron Ultra
- 1 of 16U 2.5odds 1.75MiniMax
Odds — the prediction-market price at the moment the AI model answered.
Nuke never makes it out of fnatic's veto — it has been their first ban all 25 times. From there they walk in with a 12-3 record on Cache and 11-3 on Ancient, while BIG are more modest on the same maps at 6-3 and 6-4. Mirage sits at 2-6 for both, so the picks will settle it, and even on Inferno, the map BIG choose most often, fnatic have a 5-3 record.
The form gap is wider still. Over the last 90 days fnatic are 44-21 on maps with a round difference of +146, against 23-18 and +23 for BIG, whose recent defeats came against Nemiga, ranked 52nd, and magic, ranked 23rd. The one series between these two in the past two years went to fnatic 2-1.
We're backing fnatic to win at 2.33, with the obvious caveats attached. The veto is not known yet, and BIG most often open with a ban on Anubis, where fnatic hold a 10-1 record. Part of fnatic's recent run came against Just Players, 88th, and Phantom, 64th, and the price has drifted from 2.08 to 2.33 in a day.
Where we could be wrong
- The market makes BIG the favourite: 1.69 against 2.33 on this bet.
- The veto just before the match decides which maps get played: an awkward map in the pool can turn the picture around.
Form, rosters and maps
BIG
16th in the Valve ranking · 1480 points
roster · player rating over six months
- tabseN5.77
- faveN5.89
- blameF6.63
- JDC6.14
- gr1ks6.45
recent series · 4 wins, 6 losses
- L1-2G2#11FISSURE Playground 309.09
- L0-2BetBoom#9FISSURE Playground 308.09
- L0-2magic#23Intel Extreme Masters Beijing 2026: Global Qualifier03.09
- W2-0paiN#26Intel Extreme Masters Beijing 2026: Global Qualifier02.09
- L1-2Nemiga#52Intel Extreme Masters Beijing 2026: Global Qualifier02.09
- L1-2Spirit#1Esports World Cup 202615.08
- L1-2G2#11Esports World Cup 202613.08
- W1-0Aurora#10Esports World Cup 202612.08
- W2-1Sashi#55Esports World Cup 2026: Open Qualifier09.08
- W2-0GenOne#68Esports World Cup 2026: Open Qualifier09.08
maps over 90 days
23–18, round difference +23; 7 of 15 best-of-three series went to a third map
Rounds won on the CT side 52%, on the T side 51%, pistol rounds 46%
22 days since the last series, 0 maps this week
map pool over 90 days
| Map | W–L | Rounds ± | Picks | Bans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ancient | 6–4 | +13 | 1 | 2 |
| Cache | 6–3 | +15 | 4 | |
| Mirage | 2–6 | −27 | 3 | |
| Inferno | 4–3 | +4 | 5 | 2 |
| Dust2 | 2–1 | +6 | 7 | |
| Nuke | 2–1 | +10 | 8 | |
| Anubis | 1–0 | +2 | 10 |
fnatic
33rd in the Valve ranking · 1310 points
roster · player rating over six months
- fEAR5.77
- jambo6.65
- jackasmo6.46
- cairne6.25
- mazay6.30
recent series · 6 wins, 4 losses
- L1-2Nemesis#34Stake Ranked Episode 5: Closed Qualifier27.09
- W2-0Iberian SoulStake Ranked Episode 5: Closed Qualifier26.09
- L1-2HEROIC#30Stake Pulse Beat II25.09
- W2-0Just Players#88Stake Ranked Episode 5: Closed Qualifier24.09
- W2-0Phantom#64Stake Pulse Beat II23.09
- W2-1EAC#82Stake Pulse Beat II23.09
- L1-2Phantom#64Stake Pulse Beat II23.09
- L0-1Drama#342PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: European Open Qualifier 206.09
- W2-1Ninjas in Pyjamas#27Stake Ranked Episode 4: Closed Qualifier06.09
- W2-1BBLStake Ranked Episode 4: Closed Qualifier05.09
maps over 90 days
44–21, round difference +146; 12 of 25 best-of-three series went to a third map
Rounds won on the CT side 56%, on the T side 56%, pistol rounds 54%
4 days since the last series, 8 maps this week
map pool over 90 days
| Map | W–L | Rounds ± | Picks | Bans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cache | 12–3 | +50 | 10 | |
| Ancient | 11–3 | +49 | 7 | 1 |
| Anubis | 10–1 | +38 | 5 | 1 |
| Dust2 | 4–5 | +6 | 2 | 6 |
| Inferno | 5–3 | +5 | 6 | |
| Mirage | 2–6 | −2 | 12 | |
| Nuke | — | 25 |
Bans Nuke first in 25 of 25 series
head-to-head series, last two years
1 series: BIG 0 wins, fnatic 1 win
- L1-2Overpass 13-10, Mirage 5-13, Inferno 11-13Fragadelphia Blocktober 202504.10
Valve ranking as of 7 September; opponents' places and player ratings — bo3.gg
