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FURIA vs Aurora Gaming 2:0: result and AI prediction
FURIA and Aurora Gaming played on 17 October — playoffs, semi-final, Thunderpick World Championship 2026: the series ended 2:0. The AI models' bet: Aurora Gaming to win at 2.08 — 4 of 15 models chose it; the bet lost.
- Thunderpick World Championship 2026
- Playoffs, semi-final
- Best of three
- Stream
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Aurora Gaming to win
2.08AI models' pick · 4 of 15 on this bet · 3 more in the same direction
What the odds were
Since the first snapshot FURIA have shortened: 1.92 → 1.89, Aurora Gaming — 1.96 → 2.08. The money is going on FURIA.
abbreviations
- 1, 2 — FURIA or Aurora Gaming wins the series
- H1, H2 — map handicap: −1.5 means winning the series without dropping a map, +1.5 means taking at least one map
- O, U — total maps over or under: over 2.5 means the series goes to a third map
How the series went
- map 1FURIA44 min
- map 2FURIA61 min
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on an Aurora Gaming win — the bet lost. 3 more chose close bets in the same direction: Aurora Gaming +1.5 on maps. 5 more bet on over 2.5 maps — the bet lost. The other 3 chose other bets: a FURIA win and a total-maps bet.
- 4 of 152our betodds 2.08ChatGPTClaudeDeepSeek
Groklost - 3 of 15H2 (+1.5)same directionodds 1.33KimiMistral
Dots3-Notelost - 5 of 15O 2.5odds 2.04
GeminiQwenDeepSeek FlashMiniMaxXiaomi MiMolost - 2 of 151odds 1.89
GLM
Sonarwon - 1 of 15U 2.5odds 1.92Nemotron Superwon
Odds — the price at the moment the AI model answered.
Aurora Gaming have won seven of their last ten series, and not against soft opposition: a 2-0 over Spirit from top of the ranking, and the series they lost to Vitality went 1-2. Across the last 90 days their map record stands at 41-24 with a round difference of +100, better reading than FURIA's 36-32 and +62, even if the Brazilians sit higher in the Valve ranking, 7th against 9th. The previous meeting on 6 October also went Aurora Gaming's way 2-1, with Mirage taken 13-9 and Nuke 13-9.
FURIA most often ban Anubis first, 11 times in 19, which strips the opponent of their main pick. The trouble is their own Nuke: Aurora Gaming hold a 7-2 record on it, while FURIA's Anubis reads 0-3. That is the case for backing Aurora Gaming at 2.08.
Where we could be wrong
The veto is not known yet, and in this match-up the series could easily end up on Cache or Dust2, where neither side has an edge. Aurora Gaming's schedule is a worry too: eight maps in a week and no rest day at all before the semi-final. A fresh 0-2 against 9z, 17th in the ranking, shows this roster does have off days, and over 16 hours the prices have shifted towards FURIA, from 1.96 to 2.08.
- 4 of 15 AI models back this bet and 3 more chose a close bet in the same direction; more than half chose something else.
- The market makes FURIA the favourite: 1.89 against 2.08 on this bet.
Form, rosters and maps
FURIA
7th in the Valve ranking · 1829 points
roster · player rating over six months
- FalleN5.45
- YEKINDAR6.26
- yuurih5.84
- KSCERATO6.45
- molodoy6.57
recent series · 6 wins, 4 losses
- W2-1Legacy#2Thunderpick World Championship 202615.10
- W2-0BetBoom#11Thunderpick World Championship 202614.10
- L0-2MOUZ#4ESL Pro League Season 2409.10
- W2-09z#17ESL Pro League Season 2407.10
- L1-2Aurora#9ESL Pro League Season 2406.10
- W2-1PARIVISION#36ESL Pro League Season 2405.10
- L0-2MOUZ#4ESL Pro League Season 2404.10
- W2-0BetBoom#11ESL Pro League Season 2403.10
- L0-2Vitality#3StarLadder StarSeries Fall 202620.09
- W2-0MIBR#12StarLadder StarSeries Fall 202619.09
maps over 90 days
36–32, round difference +62; 13 of 27 best-of-three series went to a third map
Rounds won on the CT side 54%, on the T side 50%, pistol rounds 55%
1 day since the last series, 5 maps this week
map pool over 90 days
| Map | W–L | Rounds ± | Picks | Bans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirage | 9–6 | +28 | 4 | 2 |
| Cache | 5–7 | −10 | 5 | 6 |
| Nuke | 7–4 | +31 | 5 | 1 |
| Dust2 | 5–5 | +5 | 2 | 4 |
| Ancient | 5–5 | +13 | 5 | |
| Inferno | 5–2 | +17 | 1 | 8 |
| Anubis | 0–3 | −22 | 1 | 13 |
Bans Anubis first in 11 of 19 series
Aurora Gaming
9th in the Valve ranking · 1716 points
roster · player rating over six months
- XANTARES6.23
- woxic6.20
- Jimpphat6.31
- kyxsan5.60
- Wicadia6.44
recent series · 7 wins, 3 losses
- W2-09z#17Thunderpick World Championship 202616.10
- W2-0Ninjas in Pyjamas#18Thunderpick World Championship 202615.10
- L0-29z#17Thunderpick World Championship 202614.10
- W2-0Spirit#1ESL Pro League Season 2411.10
- L1-2Vitality#3ESL Pro League Season 2410.10
- W2-01win#38ESL Pro League Season 2409.10
- W2-1FURIA#7ESL Pro League Season 2406.10
- W2-1BetBoom#11ESL Pro League Season 2405.10
- L0-2Falcons#6ESL Pro League Season 2404.10
- W2-09z#17ESL Pro League Season 2403.10
maps over 90 days
41–24, round difference +100; 10 of 25 best-of-three series went to a third map
Rounds won on the CT side 60%, on the T side 47%, pistol rounds 55%
0 days since the last series, 8 maps this week
map pool over 90 days
| Map | W–L | Rounds ± | Picks | Bans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirage | 10–6 | +8 | 3 | 1 |
| Anubis | 9–3 | +41 | 8 | |
| Dust2 | 5–4 | +15 | 3 | 6 |
| Nuke | 7–2 | +25 | 2 | |
| Cache | 5–4 | +2 | 7 | |
| Inferno | 5–4 | +11 | 6 | |
| Ancient | 0–1 | −2 | 1 | 14 |
Bans Ancient first in 14 of 17 series
head-to-head series, last two years
10 series: FURIA 6 wins, Aurora Gaming 4 wins · the last 5 below
- L1-2Dust2 13-8, Mirage 9-13, Nuke 9-13ESL Pro League Season 2406.10
- W2-1Ancient 13-11, Nuke 14-16, Mirage 13-9Esports World Cup 202619.08
- W2-0Dust2 13-9, Nuke 13-4Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 202620.06
- L0-2Dust2 14-16, Inferno 6-13BLAST Open Spring 202620.03
- W2-0Dust2 13-7, Mirage 13-4Intel Extreme Masters Kraków 202606.02
Valve ranking as of 5 October
