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HOTU vs fnatic: AI prediction, Stake Pulse Beat III
HOTU and fnatic meet on 14 October — group stage, Stake Pulse Beat III 2026, best of three. The AI models' bet: fnatic to win at 1.85 — 14 of 15 models chose it. Below: the analysis, the odds, team form by series, rosters with player ratings and the map pool.
- Stake Pulse Beat III 2026
- Group stage
- Best of three
- Stream
published UTC
AI models' pick: fnatic to win
1.85AI models' pick · 14 of 15 for this bet, 1 for others
Match odds
Since the first snapshot HOTU have drifted: 2.08 → 2.13, fnatic — 1.85 → 1.85. The money is going on fnatic.
abbreviations
- 1, 2 — HOTU or fnatic wins the series
- H1, H2 — map handicap: −1.5 means winning the series without dropping a map, +1.5 means taking at least one map
- O, U — total maps over or under: over 2.5 means the series goes to a third map
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for a fnatic win. One more went for a HOTU win.
fnatic beat HOTU 2-1 only four days ago, and that was their second win in three head-to-head series over the past two years. Across the last 90 days the map numbers run close: fnatic are 50-26 with a round difference of +153, HOTU 51-32 and +111, yet it is HOTU who sit higher in the Valve ranking, 31st against 35th. The detail that stands out is Cache, HOTU's most frequent pick with 13 outings, where fnatic hold a 15-2 record against 12-9 for their opponents. Nuke has been fnatic's first ban on all 22 occasions, which removes a map HOTU are 7-4 on.
Where we could be wrong
The prices point to a near-even series with a small edge to fnatic, and the previous meetings support that edge, so we're backing fnatic at 1.85. The veto is still unknown, and that is where the danger sits: HOTU bans Inferno first in 24 of 28 series and can steer the match onto Dust2, where fnatic are 3-6 and where HOTU won 13-9 in the last meeting between the two. Both sides also go the distance often, HOTU in 14 of 33 series and fnatic in 15 of 29, and over the past week fnatic have played nine maps against five for HOTU.
Form, rosters and maps
HOTU
31st in the Valve ranking · 1437 points
roster · player rating over six months
- n0rb3r76.20
- kade05.77
- mizu6.43
- dwushka6.22
- frontales6.31
recent series · 7 wins, 3 losses
- L1-2fnatic#351win Private Club 2: Closed Qualifier10.10
- W2-0Acend#631win Private Club 2: Closed Qualifier09.10
- W2-1STATE#1231win Private Club 2: Closed Qualifier07.10
- L0-3Virtus.pro#51Thunderpick World Championship 2026: Global Qualifier13.09
- W2-1BBL#37Thunderpick World Championship 2026: Global Qualifier13.09
- W2-0100 Thieves#28Thunderpick World Championship 2026: Global Qualifier12.09
- W2-1Nemesis#29Thunderpick World Championship 2026: Global Qualifier10.09
- L1-2Nemiga#141win Private Club 1: Closed Qualifier09.09
- W2-0Wildcard#58Thunderpick World Championship 2026: Global Qualifier09.09
- W2-0Betclic#451win Private Club 1: Closed Qualifier08.09
maps over 90 days
51–32, round difference +111; 14 of 33 best-of-three series went to a third map
Rounds won on the CT side 58%, on the T side 49%, pistol rounds 56%
4 days since the last series, 5 maps this week
map pool over 90 days
| Map | W–L | Rounds ± | Picks | Bans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cache | 12–9 | +11 | 13 | 1 |
| Anubis | 9–4 | +18 | 6 | 5 |
| Dust2 | 8–5 | +36 | 6 | 2 |
| Ancient | 8–5 | +10 | 6 | |
| Nuke | 7–4 | +27 | 3 | 7 |
| Mirage | 7–4 | +15 | 1 | 10 |
| Inferno | 0–1 | −6 | 24 |
Bans Inferno first in 24 of 28 series
fnatic
35th in the Valve ranking · 1417 points
roster · player rating over six months
- fEAR5.77
- jambo6.62
- jackasmo6.41
- cairne6.32
- mazay6.27
recent series · 6 wins, 4 losses
- W2-1HOTU#311win Private Club 2: Closed Qualifier10.10
- W2-1K27#321win Private Club 2: Closed Qualifier09.10
- W2-1Phantom#721win Private Club 2: Closed Qualifier07.10
- L0-2Astralis#10Stake Ranked Episode 403.10
- W2-0Alliance#24Stake Ranked Episode 403.10
- W2-0B8#13Stake Ranked Episode 402.10
- L1-2BIG#25Stake Ranked Episode 401.10
- L1-2Nemesis#29Stake Ranked Episode 5: Closed Qualifier27.09
- W2-0Iberian Soul#59Stake Ranked Episode 5: Closed Qualifier26.09
- L1-2HEROIC#15Stake Pulse Beat II25.09
maps over 90 days
50–26, round difference +153; 15 of 29 best-of-three series went to a third map
Rounds won on the CT side 56%, on the T side 54%, pistol rounds 57%
4 days since the last series, 9 maps this week
map pool over 90 days
| Map | W–L | Rounds ± | Picks | Bans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cache | 15–2 | +66 | 8 | |
| Ancient | 11–5 | +34 | 6 | 1 |
| Anubis | 10–2 | +40 | 5 | 1 |
| Inferno | 7–4 | +17 | 5 | |
| Mirage | 4–7 | +4 | 10 | |
| Dust2 | 3–6 | −8 | 2 | 6 |
| Nuke | — | 22 |
Bans Nuke first in 22 of 22 series
head-to-head series, last two years
3 series: HOTU 1 win, fnatic 2 wins
- L1-2Dust2 13-9, Anubis 4-13, Cache 10-131win Private Club 2: Closed Qualifier10.10
- L0-2Ancient 0-13, Dust2 3-13ESL Challenger League Season 52: Europe - Cup 114.07
- W2-0Anubis 13-11, Dust2 13-1Roman Imperium Cup V22.02
Valve ranking as of 5 October
