24 Oct
MOUZ vs Liquid: AI prediction, PGL Masters Bucharest
MOUZ and Liquid meet on 24 October — group stage, round 1, PGL Masters Bucharest 2026, best of three. The AI models' bet: MOUZ −1.5 map handicap at 1.85 — 15 of 16 models chose it. Below: the analysis, the odds, team form by series, rosters with player ratings and the map pool.
- PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
- Group stage, round 1
- Best of three
- Stream
published UTC
AI models' pick: MOUZ −1.5 map handicap
1.85AI models' pick · 15 of 16 for this bet, 1 for others
Match odds
abbreviations
- 1, 2 — MOUZ or Liquid wins the series
- H1, H2 — map handicap: −1.5 means winning the series without dropping a map, +1.5 means taking at least one map
- O, U — total maps over or under: over 2.5 means the series goes to a third map
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for MOUZ −1.5 on maps. One more went for Liquid +1.5 on maps.
- 15 of 16H1 (−1.5)our betodds 1.85ChatGPTClaudeDeepSeek
Gemini
GrokKimiQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMiniMaxMistral
SonarXiaomi MiMoNemotron SuperNemotron Ultra - 1 of 16H2 (+1.5)odds 2.04
Dots3-Note
Odds — the price at the moment the AI model answered.
The veto looks like MOUZ's first win here. In each of their last 18 vetoes they have banned Anubis first, and that is Liquid's go-to map — picked 10 times for a 9-3 record — so the opposition walk in without their main platform. Liquid, for their part, usually remove Ancient, the one weak spot in the MOUZ pool at 3-6, which pushes the series towards ground MOUZ own: Mirage 12-2, Inferno 6-1 and Nuke 8-3.
The recent results point the same way. Liquid's latest wins came against Wildcard (58th), BBL (37th) and JiJieHao (30th), while over the same stretch MOUZ got through Spirit, top of the Valve ranking, twice. The head-to-head record favours MOUZ too: four wins from five series over the past two years, with the last three taken 2-0 and 2-1. The prices give MOUZ an 80% chance of winning the series, and the MOUZ −1.5 map handicap at 1.85 asks for much the same picture.
Where we could be wrong
The risk is the distance. MOUZ have needed a third map in 9 of their 20 series, and with the veto still unknown it could land on Dust2, where they sit at 8-5. Their weak point is plain enough as well: 45% in pistol rounds against 57% for Liquid, and a single map dropped sinks the handicap.
Form, rosters and maps
MOUZ
4th in the Valve ranking · 1863 points
roster · player rating over six months
- Spinx6.22
- torzsi6.27
- xertioN6.40
- PR6.07
- xelex6.01
recent series · 6 wins, 4 losses
- L0-3Vitality#3ESL Pro League Season 2411.10
- W2-1Spirit#1ESL Pro League Season 2410.10
- W2-0FURIA#7ESL Pro League Season 2409.10
- W2-0Spirit#1ESL Pro League Season 2405.10
- W2-0FURIA#7ESL Pro League Season 2404.10
- W2-0M80#22ESL Pro League Season 2403.10
- L1-2FURIA#7StarLadder StarSeries Fall 202619.09
- W2-1Natus Vincere#34StarLadder StarSeries Fall 202618.09
- L1-2NRG#47StarLadder StarSeries Fall 202617.09
- L1-3Spirit#1BLAST Open Fall 202606.09
maps over 90 days
40–21, round difference +103; 9 of 20 best-of-three series went to a third map
Rounds won on the CT side 59%, on the T side 49%, pistol rounds 45%
12 days since the last series, 0 maps this week
map pool over 90 days
| Map | W–L | Rounds ± | Picks | Bans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirage | 12–2 | +49 | 8 | |
| Dust2 | 8–5 | +24 | 1 | 4 |
| Nuke | 8–3 | +4 | 7 | |
| Ancient | 3–6 | −16 | 6 | |
| Inferno | 6–1 | +35 | 3 | 1 |
| Cache | 3–4 | +7 | 6 | |
| Anubis | — | 18 |
Bans Anubis first in 18 of 18 series
Liquid
19th in the Valve ranking · 1527 points
roster · player rating over six months
- EliGE6.50
- NAF6.27
- JT5.82
- malbsMd6.16
- Jorko6.32
recent series · 7 wins, 3 losses
- L1-2Ninjas in Pyjamas#18Stake Pulse Beat III16.10
- W2-0JiJieHao#30Stake Pulse Beat III13.10
- L1-2100 Thieves#28Stake Pulse Beat III13.10
- W2-1BBL#37Stake Pulse Beat III13.10
- W2-0Wildcard#58iBUYPOWER Masters fl0m's Mythical LAN 202627.09
- W2-0M80#22iBUYPOWER Masters fl0m's Mythical LAN 202626.09
- W2-0NRG#47iBUYPOWER Masters fl0m's Mythical LAN 202625.09
- W2-0Chicken Coop#188iBUYPOWER Masters fl0m's Mythical LAN 202625.09
- L0-1BBL#37Logitech G Play Connect 202618.09
- W1-03DMAX#21Logitech G Play Connect 202618.09
maps over 90 days
40–22, round difference +112; 8 of 22 best-of-three series went to a third map
Rounds won on the CT side 55%, on the T side 54%, pistol rounds 57%
8 days since the last series, 0 maps this week
map pool over 90 days
| Map | W–L | Rounds ± | Picks | Bans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuke | 6–7 | +3 | 5 | 3 |
| Anubis | 9–3 | +41 | 10 | |
| Cache | 8–4 | +27 | 2 | 5 |
| Mirage | 8–2 | +32 | 2 | 4 |
| Dust2 | 3–5 | −26 | 11 | |
| Inferno | 6–0 | +38 | 6 | |
| Ancient | 0–1 | −3 | 21 |
Bans Ancient first in 16 of 23 series
head-to-head series, last two years
5 series: MOUZ 4 wins, Liquid 1 win
- W2-0Inferno 13-7, Train 13-9Intel Extreme Masters Cologne 202527.07
- W2-1Dust2 13-8, Nuke 4-13, Mirage 22-19BLAST.tv Austin Major 202513.06
- W2-0Inferno 13-8, Train 13-2Intel Extreme Masters Dallas 202520.05
- W2-0Ancient 13-8, Nuke 13-4ESL Pro League Season 2110.03
- L0-2Nuke 7-13, Ancient 7-13Intel Extreme Masters Katowice 202503.02
Valve ranking as of 5 October
