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Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere 2:1: result and AI prediction
Team Falcons and Natus Vincere played on 6 October — group stage, round 4, ESL Pro League Season 24 2026: the series ended 2:1. The AI models' bet: Team Falcons to win at 1.64 — 6 of 16 models chose it; the bet won.
- ESL Pro League Season 24 2026
- Group stage, round 4
- Best of three
- Stream
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Team Falcons to win
1.64AI models' pick · 6 of 16 on this bet · 5 more in the same direction
What the odds were
Since the first snapshot Team Falcons have drifted: 1.67 → 1.72, Natus Vincere — 2.44 → 2.33. The money is going on Natus Vincere.
abbreviations
- 1, 2 — Team Falcons or Natus Vincere wins the series
- H1, H2 — map handicap: −1.5 means winning the series without dropping a map, +1.5 means taking at least one map
- O, U — total maps over or under: over 2.5 means the series goes to a third map
How the series went
- map 1Team Falcons51 min
- map 2Natus Vincere79 min
- map 3Team Falcons49 min
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on a Team Falcons win — the bet won. 5 more chose close bets in the same direction: Team Falcons −1.5 on maps. 3 more bet on over 2.5 maps — the bet won. The other 2 bet on Natus Vincere +1.5 on maps — the bet won.
Team Falcons have lost four of their last ten series, and every one of those defeats came against Spirit and Vitality, the first and third teams in the ranking. G2 and Aurora were seen off 2-0, without a map dropped. Natus Vincere have four wins and six defeats over the same stretch, and Aurora beat them 2-0 in a series. The gap shows in the Valve ranking as well, 6th for Team Falcons against 34th for Natus Vincere, and in the individual numbers, with m0NESY (6.99) and kyousuke (6.37) up against Aleksib (5.41). Team Falcons win 50% of their pistol rounds, Natus Vincere 38%, and the head-to-head record over the past two years favours Team Falcons 3-1. The prices have drifted the same way in six hours, 1.67 becoming 1.64, and we're backing Team Falcons to win at 1.64.
Where we could be wrong
The veto is not known yet, but Natus Vincere's first ban is most often Dust2, in 4 of 8 cases — exactly the map Team Falcons pick themselves and where they sit 7-3, while their second pick, Ancient, returns only 1-4. Natus Vincere did beat G2 2-0 recently and took a map off Vitality, so they have enough about them to push this series to a third map.
Form, rosters and maps
Team Falcons
6th in the Valve ranking · 1843 points
roster · player rating over six months
- NiKo6.28
- karrigan5.01
- TeSeS5.82
- m0NESY6.99
- kyousuke6.37
recent series · 6 wins, 4 losses
- L1-2Vitality#3ESL Pro League Season 2405.10
- W2-0Aurora#9ESL Pro League Season 2404.10
- W2-0TYLOO#44ESL Pro League Season 2403.10
- L0-2Spirit#1BLAST Open Fall 202605.09
- W2-0G2#5BLAST Open Fall 202604.09
- L1-2MOUZ#4BLAST Open Fall 202631.08
- W2-1Legacy#2BLAST Open Fall 202629.08
- W2-1Lynn Vision#64BLAST Open Fall 202627.08
- L0-2Legacy#2Esports World Cup 202621.08
- W2-0The MongolZ#49Esports World Cup 202620.08
maps over 90 days
18–12, round difference +42; 5 of 12 best-of-three series went to a third map
Rounds won on the CT side 56%, on the T side 52%, pistol rounds 50%
1 day since the last series, 7 maps this week
map pool over 90 days
| Map | W–L | Rounds ± | Picks | Bans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dust2 | 7–3 | +13 | 5 | |
| Ancient | 1–4 | −9 | 3 | 2 |
| Mirage | 3–2 | +3 | 4 | |
| Inferno | 3–1 | +16 | 4 | |
| Nuke | 2–1 | +11 | 1 | 1 |
| Anubis | 2–1 | +8 | ||
| Cache | — | 10 |
Bans Cache first in 10 of 10 series
Natus Vincere
34th in the Valve ranking · 1427 points
roster · player rating over six months
- Aleksib5.41
- b1t6.39
- iM6.16
- w0nderful6.59
- makazze6.23
recent series · 4 wins, 6 losses
- W2-09z#17ESL Pro League Season 2405.10
- L1-2Vitality#3ESL Pro League Season 2404.10
- W2-0G2#5ESL Pro League Season 2403.10
- L1-2MOUZ#4StarLadder StarSeries Fall 202618.09
- L0-2Aurora#9StarLadder StarSeries Fall 202617.09
- L0-2G2#5BLAST Open Fall 202630.08
- W2-0paiN#54BLAST Open Fall 202628.08
- L1-2M80#22BLAST Open Fall 202626.08
- L0-2Legacy#2Esports World Cup 202620.08
- W2-1The MongolZ#49Esports World Cup 202615.08
maps over 90 days
12–13, round difference −7; 4 of 10 best-of-three series went to a third map
Rounds won on the CT side 54%, on the T side 45%, pistol rounds 38%
1 day since the last series, 7 maps this week
map pool over 90 days
| Map | W–L | Rounds ± | Picks | Bans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inferno | 3–4 | +4 | ||
| Mirage | 2–4 | −20 | 3 | |
| Nuke | 3–1 | +14 | 3 | |
| Ancient | 0–3 | −22 | 3 | 1 |
| Cache | 3–0 | +16 | 1 | 4 |
| Anubis | 1–1 | +1 | 2 | |
| Dust2 | — | 7 |
Bans Dust2 first in 4 of 8 series
head-to-head series, last two years
4 series: Team Falcons 3 wins, Natus Vincere 1 win
- W2-1Dust2 13-3, Mirage 7-13, Anubis 19-16Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 202614.06
- L1-2Mirage 13-9, Inferno 9-13, Dust2 9-13BLAST Open Spring 202620.03
- W2-0Nuke 13-2, Ancient 16-14ESL Pro League Season 2205.10
- W2-1Inferno 9-13, Mirage 13-11, Dust2 13-4Intel Extreme Masters Melbourne 202522.04
Valve ranking as of 5 October
