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Team Falcons vs NIP: AI prediction, Thunderpick World Championship
Team Falcons and NIP meet on 14 October — group stage, Thunderpick World Championship 2026, best of three. The AI models' bet: Over 2.5 maps at 2.50 — 10 of 15 models chose it. Below: the analysis, the odds, team form by series, rosters with player ratings and the map pool.
- Thunderpick World Championship 2026
- Group stage
- Best of three
- Stream
published UTC
AI models' pick: Over 2.5 maps
2.50AI models' pick · 10 of 15 for this bet, 5 for others
Match odds
Since the first snapshot Team Falcons have drifted: 1.25 → 1.33, NIP — 4.76 → 3.70. The money is going on NIP.
abbreviations
- 1, 2 — Team Falcons or NIP wins the series
- H1, H2 — map handicap: −1.5 means winning the series without dropping a map, +1.5 means taking at least one map
- O, U — total maps over or under: over 2.5 means the series goes to a third map
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for over 2.5 maps. 3 more went for under 2.5 maps. The other 2 went for a Team Falcons win.
Cache is Team Falcons' permaban — it has gone first in all 10 of their vetoes — and their most frequent pick is Dust2, where they hold a 7-3 record. The snag is that NIP ban Dust2 first in 13 of 27 series, so the favourite's strongest map could leave the series before a round is played. NIP have their own ground to stand on: a 14-4 record on Nuke and 11-5 on Ancient, while Team Falcons are 1-4 on Ancient, and a map for the underdog looks well within reach. The way both sides stretch their series says the same thing — a third map has come in 13 of NIP's 27 series and 6 of 14 for Team Falcons. Form hardly hints at a quick rout either: nine wins in NIP's last ten series, six in the same span for Team Falcons, whose recent matches with Vitality and Natus Vincere ran to the end. We're backing over 2.5 maps at 2.50.
Where we could be wrong
The caveat is where NIP's run was built: against teams from the fourth ten of the ranking and below, with no measure of that form against a top-6 side, and there are no head-to-head series between these two in the past two years. The veto is also still unknown, and an Inferno left in the pool, where Team Falcons are 4-1, would settle the question in two maps.
Form, rosters and maps
Team Falcons
6th in the Valve ranking · 1843 points
roster · player rating over six months
- NiKo6.30
- karrigan4.92
- TeSeS5.82
- m0NESY6.96
- kyousuke6.38
recent series · 6 wins, 4 losses
- L0-2Spirit#1ESL Pro League Season 2409.10
- W2-1Natus Vincere#34ESL Pro League Season 2406.10
- L1-2Vitality#3ESL Pro League Season 2405.10
- W2-0Aurora#9ESL Pro League Season 2404.10
- W2-0TYLOO#44ESL Pro League Season 2403.10
- L0-2Spirit#1BLAST Open Fall 202605.09
- W2-0G2#5BLAST Open Fall 202604.09
- L1-2MOUZ#4BLAST Open Fall 202631.08
- W2-1Legacy#2BLAST Open Fall 202629.08
- W2-1Lynn Vision#64BLAST Open Fall 202627.08
maps over 90 days
20–15, round difference +46; 6 of 14 best-of-three series went to a third map
Rounds won on the CT side 54%, on the T side 53%, pistol rounds 51%
4 days since the last series, 2 maps this week
map pool over 90 days
| Map | W–L | Rounds ± | Picks | Bans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dust2 | 7–3 | +13 | 5 | |
| Mirage | 4–3 | +7 | 4 | |
| Ancient | 1–4 | −9 | 3 | 2 |
| Anubis | 2–3 | +1 | ||
| Inferno | 4–1 | +23 | 4 | |
| Nuke | 2–1 | +11 | 1 | 1 |
| Cache | — | 10 |
Bans Cache first in 10 of 10 series
NIP
18th in the Valve ranking · 1534 points
roster · player rating over six months
- stavn6.47
- sjuush6.02
- Krimbo6.23
- adamb6.26
- xKacpersky6.35
recent series · 9 wins, 1 loss
- W2-0Eternal Fire#33Journey Autumn 202603.10
- W2-0BBL#37Journey Autumn 202603.10
- W2-1SINNERS#41Journey Autumn 202603.10
- W2-0Johnny Speeds#99Journey Autumn 202602.10
- W1-0BBL#37Journey Autumn 202602.10
- W1-0SportsBetExpert#62Journey Autumn 202602.10
- W1-0HAVU#124Journey Autumn 202602.10
- L0-1Sangal#40Journey Autumn 202602.10
- W1-0XEPTJourney Autumn 202602.10
- W3-1GamerLegion#271win Private Club 128.09
maps over 90 days
49–33, round difference +102; 13 of 27 best-of-three series went to a third map
Rounds won on the CT side 57%, on the T side 51%, pistol rounds 54%
10 days since the last series, 0 maps this week
map pool over 90 days
| Map | W–L | Rounds ± | Picks | Bans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuke | 14–4 | +39 | 13 | |
| Ancient | 11–5 | +37 | 4 | 5 |
| Mirage | 7–8 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| Cache | 6–7 | +7 | 1 | 11 |
| Inferno | 7–4 | +26 | 9 | |
| Dust2 | 2–4 | −10 | 16 | |
| Anubis | 2–1 | +3 | 14 |
Valve ranking as of 5 October
