22 Oct
AGF Aarhus vs Egnatia: AI prediction and betting pick
On 22 October, AGF Aarhus host Egnatia. The AI models' pick is AGF Aarhus to win at 1.64: 10 of 16 models chose it.
- Conference League, matchday 2 of 6
- +10°, cloudy, wind 20 km/h
- Ceres Park & Arena, Aarhus
published UTC
AI models' pick: AGF Aarhus to win
1.64AI models' pick · 10 of 16 for this bet, 6 for others
Our football predictions so far: 88 won · 65 lost · 5 void · +4.14 units All results
likely score
1:1 10%1:0 10%2:1 10%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 2 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over the day the line on the result has held: prices have not moved by a single tick.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — AGF Aarhus: 1.64 → 1.64 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: AGF Aarhus 1.64 → 1.64, Draw 4.04 → 4.04, Egnatia 5.04 → 5.04.
Price changes
| When | AGF Aarhus · our bet | Draw | Egnatia |
|---|---|---|---|
| We published an AGF Aarhus win at 1.64 | |||
| 1.64opened | 4.04opened | 5.04opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for an AGF Aarhus win. 5 more chose close bets in the same direction: AGF Aarhus −1 and AGF Aarhus −1.5. 4 more went for both teams to score. The other 2 went for Egnatia +1.
- 5 of 161our betodds 1.64
Gemini
GrokKimi
SonarNemotron Super - 4 of 16H1 (−1)same directionodds 2.07DeepSeekQwenDeepSeek FlashNemotron Ultra
- 1 of 16H1 (−1.5)same directionodds 2.75MiniMax
- 4 of 16BTTSodds 1.75
GLMMistralXiaomi MiMo
Dots3-Note - 2 of 16H2 (+1)odds 1.69ChatGPTClaude
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 18.10 at 12:53 UTC
AGF Aarhus come into the second round with plenty of goals in them: 11 scored and six conceded in five official matches this season. Last season the Danes made their home games count, averaging a total of 3 with over 2.5 goals in 60% of them. Egnatia travel with a very different profile — 2.1 goals a game on the road, a side built to defend and perfectly at home in low-scoring football. The prices have not moved at all in the past day, and AGF Aarhus stay the favourites at 1.64.
Where we could be wrong
The question is how the hosts prise open visitors who did not concede in 40% of their away matches. There is a warning in the quality of chances too: AGF Aarhus sit on 0.99 expected goals against 1.95 for their opponents, so the goals are coming from finishing, and finishing is a fickle thing, especially with the wind at 22 km/h. Even so, our pick is a home win.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
AGF Aarhus| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10 | Gent | A | 0:1xG 0.2–2.2 | L |
| 12.10 | SonderjyskeSuperliga | H | 3:0xG 1.5–1.6 | W |
| 02.10 | Vendsyssel FFclub friendly | H | 2:1 | W |
| 20.09 | AC HorsensSuperliga | A | 2:2xG 1.0–1.2 | D |
| 16.09 | Skjold SæbyDBU Pokalen | A | 6:1 | W |
| 13.09 | NordsjællandSuperliga | A | 0:2xG 1.3–2.8 | L |
Egnatia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10 | Midtjylland | H | 1:1xG 0.6–1.4 | D |
| 11.10 | LaciSuperliga | A | 2:0 | W |
| 20.09 | PartizaniSuperliga | H | 2:1 | W |
| 13.09 | AF ElbasaniSuperliga | A | 1:2 | L |
| 04.09 | Skenderbeu KorceSuperliga | H | 2:1 | W |
| 31.08 | VoraSuperliga | A | 3:1 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hearts | 1 | 0-1-0 | 1–1 | 1 | D |
| 20 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 1 | 0-1-0 | 1–1 | 1 | D |
| 21 | Universitatea Craiova | 1 | 0-1-0 | 1–1 | 1 | D |
| 28 | CSKA Sofia | 1 | 0-0-1 | 1–2 | 0 | L |
| 29 | AGF Aarhus | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–1 | 0 | L |
| 30 | Thun | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–1 | 0 | L |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
