22 Oct
Ajax vs Atalanta: AI prediction and betting pick
On 22 October, Ajax host Atalanta. The AI models' pick is both teams to score at 1.57: 10 of 16 models chose it.
- Conference League, matchday 2 of 6
- +9°, cloudy
- Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
published UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.57AI models' pick · 10 of 16 for this bet, 6 for others
Our football predictions so far: 88 won · 65 lost · 5 void · +4.14 units All results
likely score
0:0 10%0:1 9%1:0 9%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 2 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 1 day the line on the result has held: prices have not moved by a single tick.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.57 → 1.57 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Yes 1.57 → 1.57, No 2.24 → 2.24.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| We published both teams score at 1.57 | ||
| 1.57opened | 2.24opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for both teams to score. 3 more went for over 2.5 goals. The other 3 chose a bet each: double chance and an Atalanta win.
- 10 of 16BTTSour betodds 1.57ChatGPTDeepSeek
GrokKimiQwenMiniMaxMistralXiaomi MiMo
Dots3-NoteNemotron Ultra - 3 of 16O 2.5odds 1.74
GeminiDeepSeek Flash
GLM - 1 of 16X2odds 1.41
Sonar - 1 of 161Xodds 1.60Claude
- 1 of 162odds 2.33Nemotron Super
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 18.10 at 12:53 UTC
Fifteen goals scored and ten conceded in six matches this season: Ajax rarely play a game in which only one side finds the net. At home both teams have scored in 58% of their matches, and the hosts themselves have been kept quiet only on the rarest of occasions. Atalanta are dragged into those games even more often on the road, with both teams scoring in 63% of their away trips, and they have scored there roughly as often as they have conceded. The market leans the same way, and our pick is both teams to score at 1.57. The one previous meeting in Amsterdam, for what it is worth, finished 2-2 in October 2020.
Where we could be wrong
The warning comes from elsewhere. Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in almost a third of their away games, and they have had less of the ball than their opponents this season, so the visitors may well let Ajax run the game and limit themselves to rare counters. On top of that, the home numbers were built up at the end of last season, and after summer transfers and coaching changes they carry less weight than usual in this Conference League tie.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Ajax| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10 | Hajduk Split | A | 1:2xG 1.1–2.0 | L |
| 10.10 | NECEredivisie | H | 1:1xG 1.8–1.1 | D |
| 19.09 | ExcelsiorEredivisie | H | 2:2xG 2.5–0.8 | D |
| 15.09 | Willem IIEredivisie | H | 5:1xG 3.8–1.6 | W |
| 12.09 | Fortuna SittardEredivisie | A | 5:1xG 4.1–0.7 | W |
| 05.09 | PSVEredivisie | H | 1:3xG 2.0–2.5 | L |
Atalanta| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10 | Pafos | H | 3:1xG 3.5–0.9 | W |
| 12.10 | VeneziaSerie A | H | 3:1xG 2.3–2.5 | W |
| 20.09 | JuventusSerie A | A | 0:2xG 0.6–1.3 | L |
| 12.09 | CagliariSerie A | H | 1:2xG 1.7–1.3 | L |
| 05.09 | RomaSerie A | A | 1:2 | L |
| 31.08 | BolognaSerie A | H | 1:0xG 0.1–1.1 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
0–1–1Ajax wins · draws · Atalanta wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax vs Atalanta | 0:1 | 09.12.20 | Champions League |
| Atalanta vs Ajax | 2:2 | 27.10.20 | Champions League |
- both scored in 1 of the last 2 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 1 of 2
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 1 | 1-0-0 | 4–2 | 3 | W |
| 4 | Atalanta | 1 | 1-0-0 | 3–1 | 3 | W |
| 5 | Mjällby | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2–0 | 3 | W |
| 24 | Crvena Zvezda | 1 | 0-0-1 | 2–3 | 0 | L |
| 25 | Ajax | 1 | 0-0-1 | 1–2 | 0 | L |
| 26 | Borac Banja Luka | 1 | 0-0-1 | 1–2 | 0 | L |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
