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CSKA Sofia vs Monaco: AI prediction and betting pick
On 15 October, CSKA Sofia host Monaco. The AI models' pick is both teams to score at 1.78: 8 of 16 models chose it.
- Conference League, matchday 1 of 6
- +11°, overcast
- Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, Sofia
published UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.78AI models' pick · 8 of 16 for this bet, 8 for others
Split panelOur football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
likely score
1:3 8%1:1 7%0:2 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 4 days a CSKA Sofia win drifted from 5.86 to 6.01 — fewer bets on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.78 → 1.78 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Yes 1.78 → 1.78, No 1.94 → 1.95.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.78 | 1.95+0.01 | |
| 1.78+0.01 | 1.94−0.02 | |
| 1.77−0.01 | 1.96+0.02 | |
| We published both teams score at 1.78 | ||
| 1.78opened | 1.94opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for both teams to score. 3 more went for over 2.5 goals. The other 5 chose other bets: a Monaco handicap, a Monaco win and a CSKA Sofia handicap.
- 8 of 16BTTSour betodds 1.78ChatGPTClaudeDeepSeek
GeminiKimiDeepSeek Flash
GLMXiaomi MiMo - 3 of 16O 2.5odds 1.66QwenMiniMax
Dots3-Note - 2 of 16H2 (−1)odds 1.82
Grok
Sonar - 1 of 162odds 1.48Nemotron Super
- 1 of 16H1 (+1)odds 1.96Nemotron Ultra
- 1 of 16H2 (−1.5)odds 2.36Mistral
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 10.10 at 11:55 UTC
Late last season CSKA Sofia never failed to score at home, and both teams found the net in 80% of those matches. Monaco carry a similar taste for open football on their travels: goals at both ends in 71% of their away games, and they rarely kept a clean sheet. Reshaped squads have not changed the pattern this season either — the Bulgarians have 15 goals scored and six conceded in six official matches, Monaco 11 scored and four conceded in five. The odds tilt a shade towards an exchange of goals rather than a clean sheet.
Where we could be wrong
The doubt is where Sofia's goals came from: the Bulgarian league. Under pressure from Monaco the hosts will see far fewer chances, and if the visitors go ahead early and take control of possession, the home side may not score at all. We are still backing both teams to score in this Conference League tie at 1.78.
- 8 of 16 AI models back this bet: it is the most common answer, but the other half chose something else.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
CSKA Sofiano absences listed
Monacono absences listed
managers: Daniel Morales · Luis Filipe
Recent matches
CSKA Sofia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.09 | Lokomotiv PlovdivBulgarian First League | A | 1:1 | D |
| 16.09 | Lokomotiv SofiaBulgarian First League | A | 2:0 | W |
| 12.09 | Arda KardzhaliBulgarian First League | H | 4:1 | W |
| 09.09 | Levski SofiaSuper Cup | A | 4:2 | W |
| 05.09 | Spartak VarnaBulgarian First League | A | 1:1 | D |
| 30.08 | Cherno More VarnaBulgarian First League | H | 3:1 | W |
Monaco| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03.10 | Pisaclub friendly | H | 2:0 | W |
| 18.09 | LensLigue 1 | H | 2:1xG 1.8–1.2 | W |
| 12.09 | StrasbourgLigue 1 | A | 1:1 | D |
| 04.09 | Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1 | A | 2:1xG 0.5–2.3 | W |
| 30.08 | MarseilleLigue 1 | H | 2:0xG 1.7–1.4 | W |
| 27.08 | Górnik Zabrze | H | 4:1 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 3 | Monaco | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 4 | Jablonec | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 12 | KuPS | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 13 | CSKA Sofia | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 14 | Hajduk Split | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
