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Freiburg vs Jablonec: AI prediction and betting pick
On 15 October, Freiburg host Jablonec. The AI models' pick is Freiburg −1.5 handicap at 1.85: 10 of 16 models chose it, 2 more went in the same direction.
- Conference League, matchday 1 of 6
- +14°, mostly clear
- Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg
published UTC
AI models' pick: Freiburg −1.5 handicap
1.85Now 1.77 · 1.85 when published
AI models' pick · 10 of 16 on this bet · 2 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
likely score
3:0 11%2:1 8%1:0 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 4 days a Jablonec win drifted from 8.72 to 9.97 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Freiburg −1.5: 1.85 → 1.77 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (Freiburg −1.5 handicap) has shortened from 1.85 to 1.77: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Freiburg −1.5 · our bet | Jablonec +1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.77−0.01 | 2.02+0.02 | |
| 1.78−0.02 | 2.00+0.01 | |
| 1.80−0.02 | 1.99+0.03 | |
| 1.82−0.03 | 1.96+0.04 | |
| 1.85−0.01 | 1.92 | |
| 1.86+0.01 | 1.92−0.01 | |
| We published Freiburg −1.5 handicap at 1.85 | ||
| 1.85opened | 1.93opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for Freiburg −1.5. 2 more chose close bets in the same direction: Freiburg −1 and Freiburg −2. 4 more went for over 2.5 goals.
- 10 of 16H1 (−1.5)our betodds 1.85ChatGPTClaudeDeepSeek
GeminiKimiDeepSeek Flash
GLMMistralXiaomi MiMoNemotron Ultra - 4 of 16O 2.5odds 1.52
GrokQwenMiniMaxNemotron Super - 1 of 16H1 (−1)same directionodds 1.43
Sonar - 1 of 16H1 (−2)same directionodds 2.41
Dots3-Note
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 10.10 at 11:55 UTC
Jablonec have won all three of their home games, scoring two each time without conceding, but on the road the Czech side have one win and two defeats, with 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Freiburg, across five matches in the Bundesliga and the Conference League, have scored 16 and conceded 4, with xG of 2.33 against 0.92, 21 shots and 56.6% possession per match. The hosts are priced at 1.30, which works out at around 71% for the home win, and an edge that big at home rarely stays inside a single goal. That is why we're backing the Freiburg −1.5 handicap at 1.85.
Where we could be wrong
The risk is clear enough: Jablonec have already kept three clean sheets this season, and if they sit deep and defend their goal from the first minute, the two-goal margin may not arrive.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Freiburgno absences listed
Jablonecno absences listed
managers: Julian Schuster · Lubos Kozel
Recent matches
Freiburg| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03.10 | FC Luzernclub friendly | H | 4:2 | W |
| 19.09 | Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga | A | 2:2xG 3.1–2.2 | D |
| 12.09 | Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga | H | 5:0xG 2.6–0.2 | W |
| 05.09 | PaderbornBundesliga | A | 1:0xG 1.2–0.8 | W |
| 30.08 | Werder BremenBundesliga | H | 4:1xG 2.4–0.5 | W |
| 27.08 | Motherwell | H | 4:1 | W |
Jablonec| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02.10 | Dukla Prahacup | A | 1:0 | W |
| 20.09 | ZlinCzech First League | H | 1:1xG 1.2–0.4 | D |
| 12.09 | Sparta PragueCzech First League | A | 0:2xG 0.8–1.3 | L |
| 09.09 | Baník OstravaCzech First League | H | 3:0xG 2.9–0.8 | W |
| 06.09 | Slovan LiberecCzech First League | H | 1:2xG 2.5–0.3 | L |
| 02.09 | Bohemians 1905Czech First League | A | 1:1xG 1.1–1.8 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Monaco | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 4 | Jablonec | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 5 | Gent | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 6 | Sint-Truiden | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 7 | Freiburg | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 8 | Atalanta | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
