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Gent vs AGF Aarhus: AI prediction and betting pick
On 15 October, Gent host AGF Aarhus. The AI models' pick is Gent to win at 1.62: 4 of 16 models chose it, 4 more went in the same direction.
- Conference League, matchday 1 of 6
- +21°, clear
- Planet Group Arena, Ghent
published UTC
AI models' pick: Gent to win
1.62Now 1.58 · 1.62 when published
AI models' pick · 4 of 16 on this bet · 4 more in the same direction
Split panelOur football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
likely score
0:0 10%0:1 10%1:0 9%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 4 days a Gent win shortened from 1.62 to 1.58 — money is coming in on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Gent: 1.62 → 1.58 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (a Gent win) has shortened from 1.62 to 1.58: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Gent · our bet | Draw | AGF Aarhus |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.58 | 4.10 | 5.19−0.01 | |
| 1.58 | 4.10 | 5.20+0.01 | |
| 1.58 | 4.10+0.02 | 5.19 | |
| 1.58−0.01 | 4.08+0.06 | 5.19+0.10 | |
| 1.59−0.03 | 4.02+0.06 | 5.09+0.20 | |
| 1.62 | 3.96+0.02 | 4.89+0.01 | |
| We published a Gent win at 1.62 | |||
| 1.62opened | 3.94opened | 4.88opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for a Gent win. 4 more chose close bets in the same direction: Gent −1. 7 more went for both teams to score. One more went for AGF Aarhus +1.5.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 10.10 at 11:55 UTC
Gent arrive in a steady working rhythm. Six official matches across the Belgian championship and the Conference League have brought 12 goals for and five against, with four clean sheets in that run. AGF Aarhus can point to nothing so solid: 10 scored and nine conceded in five games in the Danish league and cup, and the underlying numbers lean the same way — 1.73 xG created against their goal, 1.35 at the other end.
The market leans firmly towards the hosts, with the away win priced at 4.88, and our pick is Gent to win at 1.62. Even so, this is not an emphatic favourite. Gent hold the ball just 44.8% of the time and are happy to hand over the initiative.
Where we could be wrong
That is where the danger lies. AGF Aarhus almost always found a goal on their travels in the closing stretch of last season, and averaging 54% possession, they can keep the ball for long spells against opponents who do not insist on control. Both sets of figures also come from short samples at the start of a new season, and verdicts based on five or six games with reshuffled squads can easily prove hasty.
- 4 of 16 AI models back this bet and 4 more chose a close bet in the same direction; the other half chose something else.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Gentno absences listed
AGF Aarhusno absences listed
managers: Rik De Mil · Jakob Poulsen
Recent matches
Gent| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.09 | Standard LiegeBelgian Pro League | H | 2:1xG 1.3–1.1 | W |
| 13.09 | GenkBelgian Pro League | A | 1:1xG 0.9–0.9 | D |
| 06.09 | Cercle BruggeBelgian Pro League | A | 3:0xG 1.2–0.5 | W |
| 03.09 | OH LeuvenBelgian Pro League | H | 1:0xG 1.0–0.5 | W |
| 30.08 | Club BruggeBelgian Pro League | H | 2:1xG 1.4–0.7 | W |
| 27.08 | Hibernian | A | 3:2 | W |
AGF Aarhus| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02.10 | Vendsyssel FFclub friendly | H | 2:1 | W |
| 20.09 | AC HorsensSuperliga | A | 2:2xG 1.0–1.2 | D |
| 16.09 | Skjold SæbyDBU Pokalen | A | 6:1 | W |
| 13.09 | NordsjællandSuperliga | A | 0:2xG 1.3–2.8 | L |
| 05.09 | SilkeborgSuperliga | H | 2:2xG 1.9–1.2 | D |
| 02.09 | MidtjyllandSuperliga | H | 0:2xG 1.2–1.7 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jablonec | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 5 | Gent | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 6 | Sint-Truiden | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 15 | Pafos | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 16 | AGF Aarhus | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 17 | Copenhagen | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
