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Hajduk Split vs Ajax: AI prediction and betting pick
On 15 October, Hajduk Split host Ajax. The AI models' pick is both teams to score at 1.69: 10 of 16 models chose it.
- Conference League, matchday 1 of 6
- +22°, mostly clear
- Stadion Poljud, Split
published UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.69Now 1.67 · 1.69 when published
AI models' pick · 10 of 16 for this bet, 6 for others
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
likely score
1:2 9%0:1 9%0:0 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 4 days a Hajduk Split win shortened from 6.08 to 5.60 — money is coming in on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.69 → 1.67 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (both teams score) has shortened from 1.69 to 1.67: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.67 | 2.11−0.01 | |
| 1.67+0.01 | 2.12 | |
| 1.66−0.03 | 2.12+0.05 | |
| We published both teams score at 1.69 | ||
| 1.69opened | 2.07opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for both teams to score. 2 more each for over 2.5 goals and for Ajax −1. The other 2 chose a bet each: an Ajax win and an Ajax handicap.
- 10 of 16BTTSour betodds 1.69ChatGPTClaudeDeepSeek
GeminiKimi
GLMMiniMaxXiaomi MiMo
Dots3-NoteNemotron Ultra - 2 of 16O 2.5odds 1.53
GrokQwen - 2 of 16H2 (−1)odds 1.68DeepSeek FlashNemotron Super
- 1 of 162odds 1.44
Sonar - 1 of 16H2 (−1.5)odds 2.20Mistral
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 10.10 at 11:55 UTC
Ajax rarely keep a clean sheet on the road. Over the closing stretch of last season both teams scored in 76% of their away games, with an average of 3.2 goals, and the start of this campaign has not changed the picture: 22 goals scored and 10 conceded in six matches across the Dutch league and the Conference League. Hajduk Split almost always answer with a goal in front of their own crowd — only a small handful of home games pass without one, and in their six opening matches in the Croatian league, the cup and the Conference League they have 12 goals at an xG of 1.71 per game. The prices lean the same way, rating both teams scoring a shade better than an even chance.
Where we could be wrong
The doubt is Ajax's ability to take the ball away from the opposition. The visitors dominate possession, and with the lead in hand they are capable of keeping Hajduk Split out of the penalty area altogether. The hosts, for their part, have not conceded in 39% of their home matches, which is enough to put a dent in the case. Even so, our pick is both teams to score at 1.69.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Hajduk Splitno absences listed
Ajaxno absences listed
managers: Gonzalo Garcia · Michel
Recent matches
Hajduk Split| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.09 | HNK RijekaHNL | A | 0:3xG 1.3–1.5 | L |
| 13.09 | NK Slaven BelupoHNL | H | 1:0xG 0.7–0.4 | W |
| 08.09 | Vardaraccup | A | 2:0 | W |
| 06.09 | RudesHNL | A | 4:0xG 2.3–0.1 | W |
| 31.08 | NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL | H | 2:0xG 2.6–0.4 | W |
| 27.08 | Raków Częstochowa | A | 3:2 | W |
Ajax| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.09 | ExcelsiorEredivisie | H | 2:2xG 2.5–0.8 | D |
| 15.09 | Willem IIEredivisie | H | 5:1xG 3.8–1.6 | W |
| 12.09 | Fortuna SittardEredivisie | A | 5:1xG 4.1–0.7 | W |
| 05.09 | PSVEredivisie | H | 1:3xG 2.0–2.5 | L |
| 30.08 | TelstarEredivisie | A | 4:0xG 2.1–1.1 | W |
| 27.08 | FC Sion | H | 5:3 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Atalanta | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 9 | Ajax | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 10 | Twente | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 13 | CSKA Sofia | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 14 | Hajduk Split | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 15 | Pafos | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
