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Hearts vs Nordsjælland: AI prediction and betting pick
On 15 October, Hearts host Nordsjælland. The AI models' pick is Hearts to win at 2.82: 6 of 16 models chose it, 5 more went in the same direction.
- Conference League, matchday 1 of 6
- +10°, clear
- Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh
published UTC
AI models' pick: Hearts to win
2.82Now 3.00 · 2.82 when published
AI models' pick · 6 of 16 on this bet · 5 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
likely score
1:0 11%0:0 10%2:0 10%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 4 days a Hearts win drifted from 2.82 to 3.00 — fewer bets on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Hearts: 2.82 → 3.00 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (a Hearts win) has drifted from 2.82 to 3.00: the market now rates it as less likely.
Price changes
| When | Hearts · our bet | Draw | Nordsjælland |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.00−0.01 | 3.69−0.01 | 2.14+0.01 | |
| 3.01+0.01 | 3.70+0.01 | 2.13−0.01 | |
| 3.00+0.20 | 3.69+0.07 | 2.14−0.13 | |
| 2.80−0.02 | 3.62+0.01 | 2.27+0.01 | |
| We published a Hearts win at 2.82 | |||
| 2.82opened | 3.61opened | 2.26opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for a Hearts win. 5 more chose close bets in the same direction: Hearts not losing and Hearts +1. 4 more went for both teams to score. One more went for at least one side failing to score.
- 6 of 161our betodds 2.82ClaudeKimiDeepSeek FlashMiniMax
Dots3-NoteNemotron Super - 4 of 16BTTSodds 1.47DeepSeek
GrokMistralXiaomi MiMo - 4 of 161Xsame directionodds 1.60ChatGPT
GeminiQwen
Sonar - 1 of 16H1 (+1)same directionodds 1.29Nemotron Ultra
- 1 of 16BTTS noodds 2.55
GLM
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 10.10 at 11:55 UTC
Hearts go into this Conference League tie as the outsiders, and the market leans towards Nordsjælland. On chance quality the Danes are ahead so far this season too: 2.06 xG a game against 1.58. Hearts' home record dates from the back end of last season, and after the summer transfers it only serves as background. The recent evidence, though, sits with the hosts. In six competitive matches this season Hearts have scored 12 and conceded six, they keep 59% of the ball and hit the target 5.2 times a game, while Nordsjælland take even more shots but work the keeper just 3.5 times. And the visitors away from home are nothing like the side they are at home: three home wins with four scored and none conceded, against 1.7 goals scored and a goal conceded on average on the road.
Where we could be wrong
The first match after the break is a lottery for sharpness, and Nordsjælland's away run this season tells the same story: two wins and one defeat. Our pick is a home win at 2.82. The risk is plain enough — if the Danes carry their current cutting edge into this one, Hearts will have to win a shootout rather than through control of the ball.
- Bookmakers: Nordsjælland looks more likely.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Heartsno absences listed
Nordsjællandno absences listed
managers: Wouter Vrancken · J. Olsen
Recent matches
Hearts| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.09 | KilmarnockScottish Premiership | A | 1:1xG 1.8–0.2 | D |
| 15.09 | FalkirkScottish Premiership | A | 1:2xG 1.7–2.0 | L |
| 11.09 | StenhousemuirEFL Cup | A | 3:0 | W |
| 06.09 | DundeeScottish Premiership | H | 2:1xG 1.9–0.5 | W |
| 03.09 | HibernianScottish Premiership | A | 3:1xG 0.8–1.7 | W |
| 29.08 | ST JohnstoneScottish Premiership | H | 2:1xG 1.7–1.2 | W |
Nordsjælland| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09.10 | OdenseSuperliga | H | 0:0xG 2.0–0.4 | D |
| 03.10 | Malmo FFclub friendly | A | 0:3 | L |
| 20.09 | ViborgSuperliga | A | 1:4xG 1.3–2.6 | L |
| 16.09 | VatansporDBU Pokalen | A | 3:0 | W |
| 13.09 | AGF AarhusSuperliga | H | 2:0xG 2.8–1.3 | W |
| 07.09 | MidtjyllandSuperliga | A | 2:2xG 2.1–1.9 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Midtjylland | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 19 | Nordsjælland | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 20 | Panathinaikos | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 22 | Braga | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 23 | Hearts | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 24 | Lugano | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
