Tomorrow
Riga vs Kairat Almaty: AI prediction and betting pick
On 15 October, Riga host Kairat Almaty. The AI models' pick is Riga to win at 1.90: 13 of 16 models chose it.
- Conference League, matchday 1 of 6
- +11°, overcast
- Stadions Skonto, Riga
published UTC
AI models' pick: Riga to win
1.90AI models' pick · 13 of 16 for this bet, 3 for others
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
likely score
2:1 9%1:2 8%1:0 6%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 4 days the line on the result has held: prices have not moved by a single tick.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Riga: 1.90 → 1.90 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Riga 1.90 → 1.90, Draw 3.43 → 3.43, Kairat Almaty 3.86 → 3.95.
Price changes
| When | Riga · our bet | Draw | Kairat Almaty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.90+0.01 | 3.43 | 3.95−0.02 | |
| 1.89−0.01 | 3.43 | 3.97 | |
| 1.90 | 3.43−0.01 | 3.97+0.04 | |
| 1.90+0.01 | 3.44+0.01 | 3.93+0.02 | |
| 1.89−0.01 | 3.43−0.01 | 3.91+0.04 | |
| 1.90 | 3.44+0.01 | 3.87+0.01 | |
| We published a Riga win at 1.90 | |||
| 1.90opened | 3.43opened | 3.86opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for a Riga win. 2 more went for both teams to score. One more went for over 2.5 goals.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 10.10 at 11:55 UTC
Home matches decide more here than reputations. Riga have won all three of their games at home in the Latvian league, scoring 2.7 goals a game and conceding one, and across five official fixtures of the new season they have scored six and conceded three. The prices lean the same way: 3.86 for a Kairat Almaty win and 3.43 for the draw, with the market giving Riga close to half the chances. Kairat Almaty have nine goals scored and eight conceded in six official matches this season, and they have seen less of the ball than their opponents, so possession will have to be handed to the hosts.
Where we could be wrong
Towards the end of last season, 57% of Kairat Almaty's away games saw both teams score, while Riga kept a clean sheet at home in only 44% of theirs, so a comfortable evening of control is far from guaranteed. The edge is thin, and one quick goal for the visitors would turn this into a scrappy contest with no clear favourite. Even so, our pick is a home win at 1.90.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Rigano absences listed
Kairat Almatyno absences listed
managers: Adrian Gula · Rafael Urazbakhtin
Recent matches
Riga| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | TukumsVirsliga | A | 1:0 | W |
| 03.10 | Arisclub friendly | A | 2:1 | W |
| 19.09 | FS JelgavaVirsliga | A | 1:0 | W |
| 15.09 | Super NovaVirsliga | A | 1:0 | W |
| 11.09 | AudaVirsliga | H | 2:2 | D |
| 07.09 | BFC DaugavpilsVirsliga | H | 1:1 | D |
Kairat Almaty| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.09 | FC AstanaPremier League | A | 0:1 | L |
| 13.09 | FK Tobol KostanayPremier League | H | 1:4 | L |
| 09.09 | ZhenysPremier League | H | 3:0 | W |
| 05.09 | KaspiyPremier League | A | 3:0 | W |
| 31.08 | Yelimay SemeyPremier League | A | 2:0 | W |
| 27.08 | AnderlechtEuropa League | A | 0:3 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Borac Banja Luka | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 29 | Kairat Almaty | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 30 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 35 | Lincoln Red Imps | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 36 | Riga | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
