22 Oct
Thun vs Hajduk Split: AI prediction and betting pick
On 22 October, Thun host Hajduk Split. The AI models' pick is Hajduk Split to win at 2.48: 15 of 16 models chose it, 1 more went in the same direction.
- Conference League, matchday 2 of 6
- +7°, cloudy
- Stockhorn Arena, Thun
published UTC
AI models' pick: Hajduk Split to win
2.48AI models' pick · 15 of 16 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 99 won · 74 lost · 6 void · +4.43 units All results
likely score
1:2 9%0:1 8%0:0 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 5 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over the day the line on the result has held: prices have not moved by a single tick.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Hajduk Split: 2.48 → 2.48 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Thun 2.67 → 2.67, Draw 3.42 → 3.42, Hajduk Split 2.48 → 2.48.
Price changes
| When | Thun | Draw | Hajduk Split · our bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| We published a Hajduk Split win at 2.48 | |||
| 2.67opened | 3.42opened | 2.48opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for a Hajduk Split win. 5 more chose close bets in the same direction: Hajduk Split draw no bet and Hajduk Split not losing.
- 11 of 162our betodds 2.48
Gemini
GrokKimiQwenDeepSeek FlashMiniMaxMistralXiaomi MiMo
Dots3-NoteNemotron SuperNemotron Ultra - 4 of 16DNB 2same directionodds 1.81ChatGPTClaudeDeepSeek
GLM - 1 of 16X2same directionodds 1.45
Sonar
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 10:17 UTC
Hajduk Split have made the better start of the two. The Croatians have played six official matches, scoring eight and conceding five, holding the ball 57% of the time and managing five shots on target a game. Both away trips brought wins, with four goals scored and two conceded. Thun's picture is the reverse: eight scored but 12 conceded in five games, 39.5% possession and expected goals of 0.83 against 1.63 for their opponents. After the opening round in the Conference League, Hajduk sit ninth on three points, Thun thirtieth without one. The market leans the same way, 2.48 on the visitors against 2.67 for the hosts, and the odds have not shifted in 24 hours.
Where we could be wrong
So what if Thun drag this one out on their own pitch? Eight goals in five games off a modest xG suggest the Swiss can find the net even when the run of play is against them, while Hajduk have Croatian league fixtures either side and rotation to weigh up, so the side that starts in Switzerland may not be the strongest available. We still side with the visitors: our pick is a Hajduk Split win at 2.48.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Thun| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.10 | FC SchaffhausenSchweizer Cup | A | 2:2 | D |
| 15.10 | Twente | A | 0:1xG 0.2–2.3 | L |
| 10.10 | FC ZurichSuper League | A | 2:4xG 1.5–0.9 | L |
| 03.10 | SC Kriensclub friendly | H | 2:0 | W |
| 20.09 | FC VaduzSuper League | A | 2:1 | W |
| 16.09 | Servette FCSuper League | H | 2:4 | L |
Hajduk Split| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.10 | NK VarazdinHNL | H | 1:0xG 1.4–1.3 | W |
| 15.10 | Ajax | H | 2:1xG 2.0–1.1 | W |
| 10.10 | Dinamo ZagrebHNL | H | 2:1xG 1.1–1.4 | W |
| 20.09 | HNK RijekaHNL | A | 0:3xG 1.3–1.5 | L |
| 13.09 | NK Slaven BelupoHNL | H | 1:0xG 0.7–0.4 | W |
| 08.09 | Vardaraccup | A | 2:0 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Monaco | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2–1 | 3 | W |
| 10 | Hajduk Split | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2–1 | 3 | W |
| 11 | Panathinaikos | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2–1 | 3 | W |
| 29 | AGF Aarhus | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–1 | 0 | L |
| 30 | Thun | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–1 | 0 | L |
| 31 | KuPS | 1 | 0-0-1 | 2–4 | 0 | L |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
