FINISHED
Cracovia vs Zagłębie Lubin 3:1: result and odds
Cracovia vs Zagłębie Lubin finished 3:1. The AI models' pick was both teams to score at 1.75, and it won.
- Referee: Tomasz Marciniak
- Ekstraklasa, matchday 10 of 34
- +20°, clear
- Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Kraków
published · updated UTC


AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.75AI models' pick · Two directions drew level; the one priced closer to the line was taken
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
likely score
2:1 9%1:2 8%0:0 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 5 days a draw drifted from 3.31 to 3.43 — fewer bets on the draw.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.75 → 1.74 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Yes 1.75 → 1.74, No 1.97 → 2.00.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.74−0.01 | 2.00+0.01 | |
| 1.75 | 1.99+0.02 | |
| We published both teams score at 1.75 | ||
| 1.75opened | 1.97opened | |
How the match went
Zagłębie Lubin went ahead through Aleks Lawniczak on 27 minutes and led 1-0 at the break. Cracovia levelled early in the second half after a VAR check confirmed a penalty on Gustav Henriksson, which Ajdin Hasić converted on 54 minutes for 1-1. The score held until deep into stoppage time, when a second VAR check gave Cracovia another penalty and Hasić scored it on 90+8 to make it 2-1. Mohamed Berte, assisted by Vincent Burlet, completed the win on 90+18, finishing it 3-1. Our both-teams-to-score bet went off at 1.75 and landed. Cracovia's xG of 3.01 dwarfed Zagłębie Lubin's 1.13 even though both sides had 16 shots and six on target; Cracovia held 59% of possession to 41%. Before kick-off Cracovia were rated favourites to win, the draw and an away win both offered higher, and the over 2.5 goals market paid out as four goals went in.
- 27'
Aleks Lawniczak0:1 - 29'
Amir Al-Ammari YC - 49'
penalty confirmed (VAR) · Gustav Henriksson - 53'
Zlatan Alomerović YC - 54'
Ajdin Hasić penalty1:1 - 64'
on Josip Ćorluka, off Mateusz Grzybek - 68'
Josip Ćorluka YC - 70'
David Čolina YC - 71'
sayfallah ltaief YC - 73'
on Damian Michalski, off David Čolina - 73'
on Szymon Lyczko, off Filip Szymczak - 73'
on Sebastian Kerk, off Jakub·Sypek - 74'
on Martin Minchev, off sayfallah ltaief - 80'
on Mohamed Berte, off Mateusz Klich - 90+3'
penalty confirmed (VAR) · Ajdin Hasić - 90+8'
Ajdin Hasić penalty2:1 - 90+9'
on Mihael Mlinarić, off Filip Kocaba - 90+10'
on Kamil Glik, off Ajdin Hasić - 90+11'
Leszek Ojrzynski YC - 90+18'
Mohamed Berte (Vincent Burlet)3:1
| Cracovia | stat | Zagłębie Lubin |
|---|---|---|
| 3.01 | expected goals (xG) | 1.13 |
| 16 | shots | 16 |
| 6 | on target | 6 |
| 59% | possession | 41% |
| 5 | corners | 1 |
| 14 | fouls | 14 |
| 5 | saves | 3 |
| 2 | yellow cards | 3 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
- 13S. Madejski — highest feed rating in the match8.0
- 28V. Burlet6.8
- 61B. Traoré6.9
- 4G. Henriksson6.8
- 25O. Kakabadze6.7
- 6Amir Al Ammari6.3
- 20K. Knap6.0
- 47S. Ltaief6.1
- 43M. Klich6.2
- 14A. Hasić7.5
- 11L. Nordås6.4
- 91A. Bobek
- 90M. Berteon 80'6.7
- 77J. Chrapusta
- 29W. Dej
- 15K. Glikon 90+10'0.0
- 70D. Kameri
- 39M. Perković
- 79D. Piła
- 5B. Selan
- 17M. Minchevon 74'6.4
- 18Kahveh Zahiroleslam
- 22D. Baumgartner
- 33Z. Alomerović6.3
- 6D. Čolina6.2
- 3R. Yakuba6.8
- 25M. Nalepa7.1
- 5A. Ławniczak7.0
- 13M. Grzybek6.5
- 7J. Sypek6.3
- 8D. Dąbrowski6.5
- 39F. Kocaba5.7
- 44M. Reguła6.4
- 18F. Szymczak6.2
- 30D. Hładun
- 26J. Kolan
- 37S. Kerkon 73'6.4
- 21Seweryn Marek
- 4D. Michalskion 73'6.0
- 88M. Mlinarićon 90+9'0.0
- 31I. Orlikowski
- 11A. Woźniak
- 16J. Ćorlukaon 64'6.1
- 19S. Łyczkoon 73'6.6
- 27Patryk Dziekoński
AI prediction and analysis
The vote split evenly: 6 each on both teams to score (won) and on Zagłębie Lubin not losing (lost). The other 4 chose other bets: a total-goals bet, double chance and a Cracovia win.
- 6 of 16BTTSour betodds 1.75QwenDeepSeek FlashMistralXiaomi MiMo
Dots3-NoteNemotron Ultrawon - 6 of 16X2odds 1.86ChatGPTClaudeDeepSeek
GeminiKimi
GLMlost - 2 of 16U 2.5odds 1.80
GrokMiniMaxlost - 1 of 161Xodds 1.22
Sonarwon - 1 of 161odds 1.86Nemotron Superwon
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 09.10 at 11:22 UTC
The odds put both teams to score a shade above an even chance, at 53%, and Cracovia's home games back that up: no clean sheet in four matches in front of their own fans, 1.5 goals conceded per game on average. Zagłębie Lubin are rarely tight on the road either, with both teams scoring in three of their four away games. Cracovia sit 13th on eight points after nine rounds, with one win and four defeats in their last five, seven scored and 11 conceded, so the hosts have little to suggest they can keep a clean sheet here.
Where we could be wrong
But what if the previous meetings matter more than current form? The last five games between these sides all finished under 2.5 goals, including two goalless draws, in May 2026 and in November 2025. After a run like that Cracovia are capable of dropping deep and playing on the counter, and Zagłębie have already kept a clean sheet in a quarter of their away matches. Even so, we're backing both teams to score at 1.75.
- Two directions drew the same number of AI models: the bet was taken from the one priced closer to the line.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03.10 | Niecieczaclub friendly | H | 2:3 | L |
| 19.09 | GKS Katowice | A | 2:3 | L |
| 13.09 | Wisła Płock | A | 1:3 | L |
| 06.09 | Górnik Zabrze | H | 0:1 | L |
| 02.09 | Znicz PruszkówPolish Cup | A | 1:1 | D |
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03.10 | Miedź Legnicaclub friendly | H | 1:0 | W |
| 20.09 | Wisła Płock | H | 0:2 | L |
| 15.09 | Raków Częstochowa | A | 3:2 | W |
| 12.09 | GKS Katowice | H | 2:1 | W |
| 07.09 | Wieczysta Kraków | A | 1:1 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | Ekstraklasa | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.2 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 1.3 | 1.5 |
| matches over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| both scored | 60% | 60% | |
| clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.8 | |
| average total | 3 | 3 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| both scored | 60% | 80% | |
- Cracovia score less than the league average: 1.2 vs 1.5
- Zagłębie Lubin score less than the league average: 1.2 vs 1.5
- Cracovia: 4 league defeats in a row
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Cracovia, away games only for Zagłębie Lubin
Head to head
5–4–1Cracovia wins · draws · Zagłębie Lubin wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zagłębie Lubin vs Cracovia | 0:0 | 03.05.26 | |
| Cracovia vs Zagłębie Lubin | 0:0 | 03.11.25 | |
| Zagłębie Lubin vs Cracovia | 1:2 | 24.05.25 | |
| Cracovia vs Zagłębie Lubin | 1:1 | 29.11.24 | |
| Zagłębie Lubin vs Cracovia | 1:1 | 18.02.24 | |
| Cracovia vs Zagłębie Lubin | 1:0 | 02.11.23 | Polish Cup |
| Cracovia vs Zagłębie Lubin | 2:1 | 11.08.23 | |
| Cracovia vs Zagłębie Lubin | 0:1 | 13.05.23 | |
| Zagłębie Lubin vs Cracovia | 0:2 | 30.10.22 | |
| Cracovia vs Zagłębie Lubin | 1:0 | 18.04.22 |
- both scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 10