FINISHED
Jagiellonia Białystok vs Górnik Zabrze 1:3: result and odds
Jagiellonia Białystok vs Górnik Zabrze finished 1:3. The AI models' pick was Górnik Zabrze to win at 2.60, and it won.
- Referee: Wojciech Myc
- Ekstraklasa, matchday 10 of 34
- +11°, overcast
- Stadion Miejski, Białystok
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Górnik Zabrze to win
2.60AI models' pick · 8 of 15 on this bet · 4 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
- closing odds
- The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
- CLV
- How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
likely score
0:1 11%0:0 10%0:2 9%
The likely score lists the four most likely results. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 5 days the line on the result has held: prices have not moved by a single tick.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Górnik Zabrze: 2.60 → 2.56 since we published · Górnik Zabrze became the favourite in 1X2View
Since we published, our bet (a Górnik Zabrze win) has shortened from 2.60 to 2.56: the market now rates it as more likely. Górnik Zabrze became the favourite on 10 Oct: their odds went from 2.58 to 2.56, while Jagiellonia Białystok went from 2.38 to 2.56.
Price changes
| When | Jagiellonia Białystok | Draw | Górnik Zabrze · our bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.56−0.01 | 3.33−0.01 | 2.56+0.01 | |
| 2.57+0.15 | 3.34−0.03 | 2.55−0.05 | |
| 9 Oct – 10 Oct · no snapshots for 27 h | |||
| We published a Górnik Zabrze win at 2.60 | |||
| 2.42+0.04 | 3.37+0.01 | 2.60+0.02 | |
| 5 Oct – 9 Oct · no snapshots for 4 days | |||
| 2.38opened | 3.36opened | 2.58opened | |
How the match went
Górnik Zabrze won 3-1 at Jagiellonia Białystok after a goalless first half. Jarosław Kubicki broke the deadlock in the 51st minute from a Sondre Liseth assist, and Liseth doubled the lead himself in the 58th. Jesús Imaz pulled one back for Jagiellonia on 67 minutes and thought he'd levelled matters eight minutes later, but VAR chalked the goal off. Kacper Urbanski made it 1-3 in the 90+14th minute. Liseth was the match's top-rated player with a 9.0. Our bet was Górnik Zabrze to win, odds 2.60, and it landed. Górnik's 2.14 expected goals against Jagiellonia's 0.61 told a different story to the scoreline, and they had nine shots on target to three despite seeing less of the ball, 44% against 56%. Górnik were priced at 2.56, drifting from an opening 2.58, with the over on 2.5 goals at 1.66 and both teams to score at 1.57 — both landed.
- 38'Rafał Janicki YC
- 47'Ondrej Zmrzly YC
- 51'Jarosław Kubicki (Sondre Liseth)0:1
- 58'on Peter Federico González Carmona, off Yvan Ikia Dimi
- 58'Sondre Liseth0:2
- 65'on Ferslev Anders Klynge, off Ousmane Sow
- 65'on Bartlomiej Wdowik, off Cezary Polak
- 66'on Jeremy Agbonifo, off Sergio Lozano
- 67'Jesús Imaz1:2
- 71'Jeremy Agbonifo YC
- 71'on Erik Prekop, off Sondre Liseth
- 71'on Zeidane Inoussa, off Maksym Khlan
- 73'on Aleksandar·Cirkovic, off Kajetan·Szmyt
- 75'goal disallowed (VAR) · Jesús Imaz
- 83'Jarosław Kubicki YC
- 84'on Kamil Jóźwiak, off Rodrigo Conceição
- 90+3'Malthe Hojholt YC
- 90+5'Yuki Kobayashi YC
- 90+5'on Kacper Urbanski, off Paulo Bernardo
- 90+14'Kacper Urbanski1:3
| Jagiellonia Białystok | stat | Górnik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|
| 0.61 | expected goals (xG) | 2.14 |
| 11 | shots | 15 |
| 3 | on target | 9 |
| 56% | possession | 44% |
| 4 | corners | 4 |
| 13 | fouls | 18 |
| 6 | saves | 3 |
| 2 | yellow cards | 4 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Jagiellonia Białystok- 50S. Abramowicz6.6
- 2C. Polak6.4
- 4Y. Kobayashi6.3
- 5Bernardo Vital7.2
- 27Rodrigo Conceição6.5
- 21Sergio Lozano5.7
- 14H. Finndell5.6
- 7K. Szmyt6.0
- 11Jesús Imaz6.5
- 30O. Sow5.8
- 99N. Prelec6.2
- 10J. Agbonifoon 66'6.1
- 20B. Wdowikon 65'5.9
- 3D. Stojinović
- 32A. Ćirkovićon 73'6.7
- 72K. Jóźwiakon 84'5.9
- 19A. Klyngeon 65'5.7
- 44A. Konstantopoulos
- 23Guilherme Manuel Serrão Montóia
- 1M. Perchel
- 9Dimitris Rallis
- 6T. Romanczuk
- 85Eryk Kozlowski
Górnik Zabrze- 1P. Schulze7.0
- 64E. Janža7.0
- 20Josema Sánchez6.4
- 26R. Janicki6.2
- 21O. Zmrzlý5.8
- 6M. Højholt6.2
- 33M. Khlan6.5
- 14J. Kubicki7.3
- 8Paulo Bernardo6.5
- 7Y. Ikia Dimi6.4
- 23S. Liseth — highest feed rating in the match9.0
- 82K. Urbańskion 90+5'0.0
- 11E. Prekopon 71'6.7
- 19Peteron 58'6.1
- 99T. Loska
- 29W. Kania
- 27Z. Inoussaon 71'6.3
- 34B. Durdov
- 4P. Bochniewicz
- 2P. Warczak
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on a Górnik Zabrze win — the bet won. 4 more chose close bets in the same direction: Górnik Zabrze not losing. The other 3 chose a bet each: both teams to score and total-goals bets.
- 8 of 152our betodds 2.58
GeminiKimiQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMiniMaxXiaomi MiMoNemotron Ultrawon - 4 of 15X2same directionodds 1.49ChatGPT
GrokMistral
Sonarwon - 1 of 15BTTSodds 1.57
Dots3-Notewon - 1 of 15O 2.5odds 1.66Nemotron Superwon
- 1 of 15U 2.5odds 2.06Claudelost
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 09.10 at 11:22 UTC
Górnik Zabrze sit top of the Ekstraklasa with 22 points after nine rounds, while Jagiellonia Białystok are only tenth on 12 points from eight games. On the road Górnik score 1.6 and concede 0.4 per match, and they have kept a clean sheet in three of their five away trips; Jagiellonia manage roughly a goal a game at home. The recent head-to-head story leans the same way: Górnik won 2-1 in October 2025 and again 2-1 in Białystok in April. The market still nudges the hosts ahead, 38% against 35% for the visitors, and the last ten meetings are split evenly with four wins each, so our pick of an away win at 2.60 comes with real value attached.
Where we could be wrong
The caveats are genuine. Jagiellonia have taken two wins from their last five outings, and in half of their home matches both teams have scored, so one goal is unlikely to be enough for Górnik. Wind of 16 km/h and overcast skies will not help clean work on the ball either, and with the visitors' cautious approach a draw here is no less likely than a Górnik victory — which would scupper the bet.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Jagiellonia Białystok| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03.10 | Polonia Warszawaclub friendly | H | 1:2 | L |
| 29.09 | Sūduva Marijampolėclub friendly | H | 5:0 | W |
| 20.09 | Legia Warsaw | H | 1:3 | L |
| 16.09 | OlympiacosEuropa League | A | 1:2 | L |
| 11.09 | Wisła Kraków | A | 0:2 | L |
Górnik Zabrze| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02.10 | Odra Opoleclub friendly | H | 0:2 | L |
| 19.09 | Motor Lublin | A | 0:0 | D |
| 15.09 | Korona Kielce | A | 2:0 | W |
| 12.09 | Lech Poznań | H | 2:1 | W |
| 06.09 | Cracovia | A | 1:0 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Ekstraklasa |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.4 / 1.8 | 1.9 / 0.9 | 1.5 |
| matches over 2.5 | 67% | 70% | |
| both scored | 67% | 70% | |
| clean sheets | 11% | 30% | |
| failed to score | 22% | 10% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 0.5 | |
| average total | 2.8 | 2.3 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| both scored | 60% | 50% | |
- Górnik Zabrze score more than the league average: 1.9 vs 1.5
- Górnik Zabrze: 4 wins in the last 5 league games
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Jagiellonia Białystok, away games only for Górnik Zabrze
Head to head
4–2–4Jagiellonia Białystok wins · draws · Górnik Zabrze wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia Białystok vs Górnik Zabrze | 1:2 | 24.04.26 | |
| Górnik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia Białystok | 2:1 | 26.10.25 | |
| Jagiellonia Białystok vs Górnik Zabrze | 1:1 | 04.05.25 | |
| Górnik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia Białystok | 0:2 | 03.11.24 | |
| Górnik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia Białystok | 2:1 | 02.03.24 | |
| Jagiellonia Białystok vs Górnik Zabrze | 4:1 | 27.08.23 | |
| Jagiellonia Białystok vs Górnik Zabrze | 2:1 | 11.03.23 | |
| Górnik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia Białystok | 1:1 | 26.08.22 | |
| Górnik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia Białystok | 1:2 | 14.02.22 | |
| Jagiellonia Białystok vs Górnik Zabrze | 1:3 | 16.08.21 |
- both scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 7 of 10
