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Lech Poznań vs Korona Kielce: AI prediction and betting pick
On 18 October, Lech Poznań host Korona Kielce. The AI models' pick is Lech Poznań −1 handicap at 1.76: 13 of 15 models chose it.
- Referee: Lukasz Kuzma
- Ekstraklasa, matchday 11 of 34
- +14°, overcast
- Enea Stadion, Poznań
published UTC
AI models' pick: Lech Poznań −1 handicap
1.76Now 1.70 · 1.76 when published
Asian handicap: the bet wins if Lech Poznań win by two goals or more; a one-goal win returns the stake.
AI models' pick · 13 of 15 for this bet, 2 for others
Our football predictions so far: 86 won · 63 lost · 5 void · +3.46 units All results
likely score
2:0 10%2:1 10%1:0 9%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 5 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 5 days a Korona Kielce win drifted from 5.67 to 6.17 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Lech Poznań −1: 1.76 → 1.70 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (Lech Poznań −1 handicap) has shortened from 1.76 to 1.70: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Lech Poznań −1 · our bet | Korona Kielce +1 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.70−0.01 | 2.08−0.01 | |
| We published Lech Poznań −1 handicap at 1.76 | ||
| 1.71−0.01 | 2.09+0.01 | |
| 1.72−0.05 | 2.08+0.07 | |
| 1.77+0.01 | 2.01−0.01 | |
| 1.76opened | 2.02opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for Lech Poznań −1. 3 more chose close bets in the same direction: Lech Poznań −1.5. 2 more went for at least one side failing to score.
- 10 of 15H1 (−1)our betodds 1.76ChatGPT
Gemini
GrokQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLM
SonarXiaomi MiMo
Dots3-NoteNemotron Super - 3 of 15H1 (−1.5)same directionodds 2.25KimiMiniMaxMistral
- 2 of 15BTTS noodds 2.13ClaudeDeepSeek
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 16.10 at 09:03 UTC
Lech Poznań have won seven of the last 10 meetings with Korona Kielce and lost only one. At home this season they have four wins from five, scoring 2.2 and conceding 0.4 per game, with three clean sheets along the way. Korona manage just 1.2 goals a game on the road and failed to score in two of their five away trips. In the Ekstraklasa table Lech sit third on 22 points from nine rounds, Korona eighth on 15 after 10. The market rates the -1 handicap at 54%, and the home price has shortened from 1.47 to 1.43 in three days.
Where we could be wrong
The midweek programme is the warning sign. Lech had a Europa League tie behind them, and in Poznań the coach may well rest his first-choice players. Korona do take points away from home, with three wins in five on their travels, and in August 2025 they already left Poznań with a 1-1 draw. Even so, our pick is the Lech Poznań -1 handicap at odds of 1.76.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Lech Poznań| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10 | Bayer LeverkusenEuropa League | H | 0:4xG 0.6–5.2 | L |
| 10.10 | Śląsk Wrocław | A | 4:1xG 2.0–0.8 | W |
| 03.10 | Energie Cottbusclub friendly | H | 2:2 | D |
| 20.09 | Radomiak Radom | H | 5:1xG 4.0–1.0 | W |
| 17.09 | Crystal PalaceEuropa League | A | 0:4 | L |
| 12.09 | Górnik Zabrze | A | 1:2xG 0.5–1.5 | L |
Korona Kielce| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | Pogoń Szczecin | A | 0:2xG 0.8–0.9 | L |
| 03.10 | Legia Warsawclub friendly | A | 1:5 | L |
| 19.09 | Raków Częstochowa | H | 3:2xG 3.5–1.8 | W |
| 15.09 | Górnik Zabrze | H | 0:2xG 0.1–1.8 | L |
| 12.09 | Śląsk Wrocław | A | 2:1xG 2.5–1.3 | W |
| 05.09 | Wisła Kraków | H | 1:1xG 1.1–1.4 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Ekstraklasa |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 2.3 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.5 |
| matches over 2.5 | 78% | 30% | |
| both scored | 67% | 60% | |
| clean sheets | 33% | 10% | |
| failed to score | 11% | 30% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 2.2 / 0.4 | 1.2 / 1 | |
| average total | 2.6 | 2.2 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| both scored | 40% | 40% | |
- Lech Poznań score more than the league average: 2.3 vs 1.5
- Korona Kielce score less than the league average: 1.2 vs 1.5
- Lech Poznań: 4 wins in the last 5 league games
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Lech Poznań, away games only for Korona Kielce
Head to head
7–2–1Lech Poznań wins · draws · Korona Kielce wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Korona Kielce vs Lech Poznań | 1:2 | 22.02.26 | |
| Lech Poznań vs Korona Kielce | 1:1 | 16.08.25 | |
| Lech Poznań vs Korona Kielce | 2:0 | 05.04.25 | |
| Korona Kielce vs Lech Poznań | 2:3 | 29.09.24 | |
| Lech Poznań vs Korona Kielce | 1:2 | 25.05.24 | |
| Korona Kielce vs Lech Poznań | 0:1 | 02.12.23 | |
| Korona Kielce vs Lech Poznań | 0:3 | 19.05.23 | |
| Lech Poznań vs Korona Kielce | 3:2 | 06.11.22 | |
| Korona Kielce vs Lech Poznań | 0:3 | 14.06.20 | |
| Lech Poznań vs Korona Kielce | 0:0 | 10.11.19 |
- both scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 6 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Górnik Zabrze | 10 | 8-1-1 | 19–9 | 25 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Lech Poznań | 9 | 7-1-1 | 21–8 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Legia Warsaw | 10 | 6-4-0 | 21–8 | 22 | DWDWW |
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 10 | 5-1-4 | 18–16 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 10 | 4-3-3 | 12–12 | 15 | DWLWL |
| 9 | Zagłębie Lubin | 10 | 4-3-3 | 12–13 | 15 | DWWLL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1531
- 16-3011
- 31-4561
- 46-6021
- 61-7551
- 76-9043
- 0-1501
- 16-3062
- 31-4521
- 46-6012
- 61-7520
- 76-9016
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
