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Śląsk Wrocław vs Lech Poznań 1:4: result and odds
Śląsk Wrocław vs Lech Poznań finished 1:4. The AI models' pick was both teams to score at 1.53, and it won.
- Referee: Patryk Gryckiewicz
- Ekstraklasa, matchday 10 of 34
- +14°, light rain
- Tarczyński Arena, Wrocław
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.53AI models' pick · 10 of 16 for this bet, 6 for others
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
likely score
2:1 8%1:2 8%2:2 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 5 days a Śląsk Wrocław win drifted from 4.55 to 4.80 — fewer bets on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.53 → 1.54 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Yes 1.53 → 1.54, No 2.35 → 2.34.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.54+0.01 | 2.34−0.01 | |
| 5 Oct – 10 Oct · no snapshots for 5 days | ||
| We published both teams score at 1.53 | ||
| 1.53opened | 2.35opened | |
How the match went
Lech Poznań won 4-1 away at Śląsk Wrocław, leading 1-0 at the break after Filip Jagiełło's goal on 31 minutes, assisted by Mateusz Skrzypczak. A rapid second-half spell settled it: Pablo Rodriguez Delgado made it 2-0 on 50 minutes, then Patrick Walemark struck twice, on 70 and 73 minutes, the second set up by Daniel Håkans. Grzegorz Tomasiewicz pulled one back for the home side in stoppage time, on 90+3. Lech Poznań had much the better of the chances too, 2.06 xG against 0.81, 16 shots to seven and five on target to four, with 60% of the ball against 40%. Our both-teams-to-score bet, odds 1.53 and rated a 61% chance by the market, landed as both sides found the net. Before kick-off Lech Poznań were close to even-money at 1.57 to win, Śląsk Wrocław went off near 4.80, and the goal line settled over 3.5 as priced, with five goals scored.
- 17'Filip Jagiełło YC
- 31'Filip Jagiełło (Mateusz Skrzypczak)0:1
- 45'Wojciech Monka YC
- 45+1'Michal Gurgul YC
- 50'Pablo Rodriguez Delgado (Joel Pereira)0:2
- 56'Karol Linetty YC
- 60'on antoni kozubal, off Filip Jagiełło
- 60'on Patrick Walemark, off Robert Gumny
- 61'on Malaly Dembele, off luka marjanac
- 61'on Adam Ciućka, off Karol Linetty
- 70'Patrick Walemark (Mikael Ishak)0:3
- 72'on Daniel Håkans, off Leo Bengtsson
- 72'on Y. Agnero, off Mikael Ishak
- 73'Patrick Walemark (Daniel Håkans)0:4
- 75'on Leltsin Jeronimo Semedo Camoes, off Przemyslaw Banaszak
- 75'on Eniss Shabani, off Piotr Samiec-Talar
- 76'on Gustav Berggren, off Radosław Murawski
- 88'Marc Llinares YC
- 90+3'Grzegorz Tomasiewicz (Alex Timossi Andersson)1:4
- 90+5'Patrick Walemark YC
| Śląsk Wrocław | stat | Lech Poznań |
|---|---|---|
| 0.81 | expected goals (xG) | 2.06 |
| 7 | shots | 16 |
| 4 | on target | 5 |
| 40% | possession | 60% |
| 3 | corners | 4 |
| 13 | fouls | 11 |
| 1 | saves | 2 |
| 2 | yellow cards | 4 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Śląsk Wrocław- 1K. Niemczycki5.4
- 44M. Malec5.5
- 5L. Ba6.1
- 33E. Matsenko6.2
- 8Marc Llinares5.0
- 20G. Tomasiewicz6.8
- 17K. Linetty5.6
- 21A. Timossi Andersson6.4
- 7P. Samiec-Talar5.9
- 19P. Banaszak6.5
- 11L. Marjanac6.3
- 15J. Yriarte
- 2D. Szala
- 25M. Szromnik
- 88A. Ciuckaon 61'5.8
- 10M. Dembéléon 61'6.5
- 4M. Dijakovic
- 9Ieltsin Camõeson 75'6.3
- 27Jan Jurčec
- 77E. Shabanion 75'5.8
Lech Poznań- 1M. Lis7.1
- 15M. Gurgul6.3
- 27W. Mońka6.7
- 72M. Skrzypczak7.5
- 2Joel Pereira7.2
- 14L. Bengtsson6.2
- 21Pablo Rodríguez8.0
- 22R. Murawski6.5
- 20R. Gumny6.7
- 24F. Jagiełło7.5
- 9M. Ishak7.0
- 5G. Berggrenon 76'6.6
- 11D. Håkanson 72'6.8
- 43A. Kozubalon 60'6.9
- 77L. Palma
- 33M. Pruchniewski
- 10P. Wålemark — highest feed rating in the matchon 60'8.4
- 59T. Yegbe
- 7Y. Agneroon 72'6.3
- 54K. Jakóbczyk
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on both teams to score — the bet won. 3 more bet on over 2.5 goals — the bet won. The other 3 chose other bets: a Lech Poznań win and a total-goals bet.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 09.10 at 11:22 UTC
Clean sheets have been in short supply here. Both teams have scored in three of Śląsk Wrocław's four home games, and all three of Lech Poznań's away trips this season have brought goals at both ends, with an average of 3.7 goals a game. The hosts both score and concede 1.5 goals per game in Wrocław, and over the last five rounds they have scored seven and shipped 10. Lech have taken four wins in five, scoring 12 but conceding six — the attack is humming, while the defence keeps letting opponents in on their goal. The market rates the chance of both teams scoring at 61%, and we're backing both teams to score at 1.53.
Where we could be wrong
The doubt is Śląsk's own output: 15th place, six points after nine rounds and one in four home matches without a goal of their own. The previous meetings allow for that too — a goalless draw in February 2024, and Lech won 1-0 in September 2024 when the hosts had no answer.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Śląsk Wrocław| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03.10 | Slovan Liberecclub friendly | H | 0:3 | L |
| 18.09 | Wisła Kraków | A | 1:2 | L |
| 12.09 | Korona Kielce | H | 1:2 | L |
| 06.09 | Jagiellonia Białystok | A | 1:2 | L |
| 03.09 | Pogoń SzczecinPolish Cup | H | 2:1 | W |
Lech Poznań| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03.10 | Energie Cottbusclub friendly | H | 2:2 | D |
| 20.09 | Radomiak Radom | H | 5:1 | W |
| 17.09 | Crystal PalaceEuropa League | A | 0:4 | L |
| 12.09 | Górnik Zabrze | A | 1:2 | L |
| 06.09 | Raków Częstochowa | H | 1:0 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Ekstraklasa |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.2 / 1.9 | 2.3 / 0.9 | 1.5 |
| matches over 2.5 | 80% | 78% | |
| both scored | 90% | 67% | |
| clean sheets | 10% | 33% | |
| failed to score | 10% | 11% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1.4 / 2 | 2.5 / 1.5 | |
| average total | 3.4 | 4 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| both scored | 80% | 100% | |
- Śląsk Wrocław score less than the league average: 1.2 vs 1.5
- Lech Poznań score more than the league average: 2.3 vs 1.5
- Śląsk Wrocław: 3 league defeats in a row
- Lech Poznań: 4 wins in the last 5 league games
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Śląsk Wrocław, away games only for Lech Poznań
Head to head
5–1–4Śląsk Wrocław wins · draws · Lech Poznań wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Śląsk Wrocław vs Lech Poznań | 3:1 | 29.03.25 | |
| Lech Poznań vs Śląsk Wrocław | 1:0 | 22.09.24 | |
| Lech Poznań vs Śląsk Wrocław | 0:0 | 24.02.24 | |
| Śląsk Wrocław vs Lech Poznań | 3:1 | 20.08.23 | |
| Śląsk Wrocław vs Lech Poznań | 2:1 | 26.02.23 | |
| Lech Poznań vs Śląsk Wrocław | 1:3 | 19.10.22 | Polish Cup |
| Lech Poznań vs Śląsk Wrocław | 0:1 | 14.08.22 | |
| Śląsk Wrocław vs Lech Poznań | 0:1 | 01.04.22 | |
| Lech Poznań vs Śląsk Wrocław | 4:0 | 02.10.21 | |
| Lech Poznań vs Śląsk Wrocław | 1:0 | 21.02.21 |
- both scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 5 of 10
