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AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva: AI prediction and betting pick
On 15 October, AZ Alkmaar host Hapoel Be'er Sheva. The AI models' pick is AZ Alkmaar −1 handicap at 1.42: 2 of 15 models chose it, 3 more went in the same direction.
- Referee: Radoslav Gidzhenov
- Europa League, matchday 2 of 8
- +19°, overcast
- AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
published UTC
AI models' pick: AZ Alkmaar −1 handicap
1.42Asian handicap: the bet wins if AZ Alkmaar win by two goals or more; a one-goal win returns the stake.
AI models' pick · 2 of 15 on this bet · 3 more in the same direction
Split panelOur football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
likely score
2:1 10%2:0 9%1:0 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 4 days a Hapoel Be'er Sheva win drifted from 8.88 to 8.99 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementHapoel Be'er Sheva 8.88 → 8.99 over 4 days · 54 snapshotsView
This market has barely moved: AZ Alkmaar 1.30 → 1.29, Draw 5.48 → 5.57, Hapoel Be'er Sheva 8.88 → 8.99.
Price changes
| When | AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Hapoel Be'er Sheva |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.29 | 5.57+0.05 | 8.99−0.12 | |
| 1.29 | 5.52+0.03 | 9.11+0.21 | |
| 1.29−0.01 | 5.49+0.01 | 8.90+0.02 | |
| 1.30opened | 5.48opened | 8.88opened |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for AZ Alkmaar −1. 3 more chose close bets in the same direction: AZ Alkmaar −1.5 and an AZ Alkmaar win. 4 more went for Hapoel Be'er Sheva +1.5. The other 6 chose other bets: both teams to score and total-goals bets.
- 4 of 15H2 (+1.5)odds 1.97ChatGPTClaude
Gemini
GLM - 3 of 15BTTSodds 1.80DeepSeekQwenXiaomi MiMo
- 2 of 15H1 (−1)our betodds 1.42
SonarNemotron Ultra - 2 of 15O 2.5odds 1.47
GrokMistral - 2 of 15H1 (−1.5)same directionodds 1.84KimiDeepSeek Flash
- 1 of 151same directionodds 1.29Nemotron Super
- 1 of 15O 3.5odds 2.23MiniMax
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 12.10 at 08:41 UTC
AZ Alkmaar's home games rarely finish with few goals: the goal average for their matches in Alkmaar sits around 3.8, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of them. Hapoel Be'er Sheva are far more cautious on their travels, where the average drops to 3.1 and three goals or more have come in only half of their away games. AZ also dominate the ball, work 16.3 shots a match and hit the target 5.5 times.
The prices have edged towards the hosts over the past two days, from 1.3 to 1.29, and the market rates the AZ Alkmaar -1 handicap at 66%. That is our pick, at odds of 1.42.
Where we could be wrong
The form numbers come from the end of last season, and in the current one the expected goals are almost level, 1.66 against 1.67, with AZ scoring 10 and conceding 8 in six matches. Hapoel like plenty of possession themselves, and if the visitors drop deeper, one goal of handicap may not be enough.
- 2 of 15 AI models back this bet and 3 more chose a close bet in the same direction; more than half chose something else.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
AZ Alkmaarno absences listed
Hapoel Be'er Shevano absences listed
managers: L. Echteld · R. Kojok
Recent matches
AZ Alkmaar| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | FeyenoordEredivisie | A | 0:2xG 1.0–2.2 | L |
| 20.09 | TelstarEredivisie | H | 1:0xG 2.4–0.1 | W |
| 16.09 | Sunderland | A | 0:1xG 1.5–2.9 | L |
| 11.09 | Willem IIEredivisie | H | 1:1 | D |
| 06.09 | HeerenveenEredivisie | A | 3:2xG 1.0–1.5 | W |
| 29.08 | GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie | H | 5:2xG 2.4–1.7 | W |
Hapoel Be'er Sheva| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al | A | 2:0xG 1.9–1.9 | W |
| 19.09 | Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al | H | 1:0 | W |
| 16.09 | Dinamo Zagreb | H | 0:0 | D |
| 13.09 | Hapoel Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al | A | 2:0 | W |
| 07.09 | Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al | H | 1:4 | L |
| 02.09 | Hapoel HaifaLigat Ha'al | H | 2:2 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0–0 | 1 | D |
| 20 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0–0 | 1 | D |
| 21 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 1 | 0-0-1 | 1–2 | 0 | L |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–1 | 0 | L |
| 26 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–1 | 0 | L |
| 27 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–1 | 0 | L |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
