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Benfica vs Celtic: AI prediction and betting pick
On 15 October, Benfica host Celtic. The AI models' pick is Benfica −1.5 handicap at 1.73: 14 of 16 models chose it.
- Referee: Nikola Dabanovic
- Europa League, matchday 2 of 8
- +25°, clear
- Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisbon
published UTC
AI models' pick: Benfica −1.5 handicap
1.73Now 1.69 · 1.73 when published
AI models' pick · 14 of 16 for this bet, 2 for others
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
likely score
3:0 11%2:1 8%3:1 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 4 days a Celtic win drifted from 9.95 to 10.56 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Benfica −1.5: 1.73 → 1.69 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (Benfica −1.5 handicap) has shortened from 1.73 to 1.69: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Benfica −1.5 · our bet | Celtic +1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.69−0.01 | 2.15 | |
| 1.70 | 2.15+0.02 | |
| We published Benfica −1.5 handicap at 1.73 | ||
| 1.70−0.03 | 2.13+0.04 | |
| 1.73opened | 2.09opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for Benfica −1.5. 2 more went for over 2.5 goals.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 12.10 at 08:42 UTC
Benfica have scored 15 and conceded four in six official matches this season, and at home in the Portuguese league they have won all three, averaging 4.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game. Celtic's numbers run the other way: six scored and eight conceded over the same six games, and last season the Scots failed to score in every fifth away trip. The market reads it one way only, 1.25 on the hosts against 10.11 on Celtic, and a Benfica -1.5 handicap is rated at about 55%, with the prices unmoved for two days. That is our pick.
Where we could be wrong
The counter-argument is real enough. Both teams scored in 63% of Celtic's away games last season, and a single goal conceded would leave Benfica needing three of their own to land the bet. The visitors keep the ball well and work the target as often as their opponents, so an early away goal followed by Celtic sitting deep would change the picture completely. Their only visit to the Estadio da Luz, back in 2012, finished 2-1.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Injuries and suspensions
Benficano absences listed
Celticno absences listed
managers: Marco Silva · M. O'Neill
Recent matches
Benfica| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | Vitória SCPrimeira Liga | H | 2:0xG 2.8–0.5 | W |
| 20.09 | PortoPrimeira Liga | A | 1:3xG 0.8–1.3 | L |
| 16.09 | Milan | A | 2:0xG 0.6–1.0 | W |
| 13.09 | GIL VicentePrimeira Liga | H | 3:1 | W |
| 09.09 | MoreirensePrimeira Liga | A | 4:0 | W |
| 05.09 | MaritimoPrimeira Liga | A | 3:0xG 1.3–0.1 | W |
Celtic| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | MotherwellScottish Premiership | A | 2:0xG 2.9–1.1 | W |
| 20.09 | RangersScottish Premiership | H | 0:1xG 0.7–1.2 | L |
| 17.09 | Ferencváros | H | 1:3 | L |
| 13.09 | RangersEFL Cup | A | 0:3 | L |
| 09.09 | ST JohnstoneScottish Premiership | A | 1:0 | W |
| 05.09 | ST MirrenScottish Premiership | A | 2:1xG 2.9–1.7 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
1–1–0Benfica wins · draws · Celtic wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica vs Celtic | 2:1 | 20.11.12 | Champions League |
| Celtic vs Benfica | 0:0 | 19.09.12 | Champions League |
- both scored in 1 of the last 2 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 1 of 2
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ferencváros | 1 | 1-0-0 | 3–1 | 3 | W |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2–0 | 3 | W |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2–0 | 3 | W |
| 27 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–1 | 0 | L |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | 0-0-1 | 1–3 | 0 | L |
| 29 | Hoffenheim | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–2 | 0 | L |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
