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Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz: AI prediction and betting pick
On 15 October, Bournemouth host Sturm Graz. The AI models' pick is both teams to score at 1.90: 9 of 16 models chose it.
- Referee: Jerome Brisard
- Europa League, matchday 2 of 8
- +16°, cloudy
- Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
published UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.90Now 1.88 · 1.90 when published
AI models' pick · 9 of 16 for this bet, 7 for others
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
likely score
2:1 9%3:0 9%1:1 9%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 9 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 4 days a Sturm Graz win drifted from 12.43 to 12.64 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.90 → 1.88 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (both teams score) has shortened from 1.90 to 1.88: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.88−0.01 | 1.86+0.02 | |
| We published both teams score at 1.90 | ||
| 1.89−0.01 | 1.84+0.01 | |
| 1.90opened | 1.83opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for both teams to score. 2 more went for Bournemouth −1.5. The other 5 chose a bet each: a Bournemouth win, a Bournemouth handicap, a total-goals bet and a Sturm Graz handicap.
- 9 of 16BTTSour betodds 1.90DeepSeek
GeminiKimiQwen
GLMMiniMaxXiaomi MiMo
Dots3-NoteNemotron Ultra - 2 of 16H1 (−1.5)odds 1.54
GrokDeepSeek Flash - 1 of 161odds 1.18Nemotron Super
- 1 of 16H1 (−1)odds 1.24
Sonar - 1 of 16O 2.5odds 1.36Mistral
- 1 of 16H2 (+2.5)odds 1.57ChatGPT
- 1 of 16H2 (+1.5)odds 2.37Claude
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 12.10 at 08:42 UTC
Bournemouth have scored 11 and conceded 11 in six official matches this season: the hosts leak at the back, but they almost always find a goal of their own. Sturm Graz have eight goals in five games and five against, and their habit of getting on the scoresheet on the road stretches back to last season — the Austrians have failed to score away in only 6% of matches. Both sides have scored in 63% of Bournemouth's home games, and the market still rates both teams scoring at less than an even chance. Our pick is both teams to score at 1.90.
Where we could be wrong
The doubt is in how Sturm Graz travel: away from home they tend to give up the ball and play on the counter, and Bournemouth have kept opponents out in a fair share of their home games, so the open contest may never arrive. Drizzle and an 18 km/h wind invite caution too, and Bournemouth's home average of 2.6 goals is no promise of a shootout.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Bournemouthno absences listed
Sturm Grazno absences listed
managers: M. Rose · F. Ingolitsch
Recent matches
Bournemouth| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | ChelseaPremier League | A | 1:5xG 1.5–1.2 | L |
| 20.09 | LiverpoolPremier League | H | 0:1xG 0.8–1.6 | L |
| 17.09 | Real Sociedad | A | 2:1 | W |
| 12.09 | BrentfordPremier League | H | 2:2 | D |
| 08.09 | Lincoln CityEFL Cup | H | 4:0 | W |
| 05.09 | Newcastle UnitedPremier League | A | 2:2xG 1.4–0.7 | D |
Sturm Graz| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Austria ViennaBundesliga | A | 2:0xG 2.5–2.0 | W |
| 02.10 | Floridsdorfer ACclub friendly | H | 3:1 | W |
| 20.09 | SalzburgBundesliga | A | 0:3xG 0.5–1.6 | L |
| 16.09 | Rennes | H | 0:0 | D |
| 13.09 | LASKBundesliga | H | 2:1 | W |
| 05.09 | Voitsbergcup | A | 4:1 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | OFI Crete | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2–0 | 3 | W |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2–1 | 3 | W |
| 11 | Lyon | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2–1 | 3 | W |
| 16 | Omonia | 1 | 1-0-0 | 1–0 | 3 | W |
| 17 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0–0 | 1 | D |
| 18 | Rennes | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0–0 | 1 | D |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
