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Celta Vigo vs Juventus: AI prediction and betting pick
On 15 October, Celta Vigo host Juventus. The AI models' pick is under 2.5 goals at 1.84: two directions drew level, so we took the one closer to the market line.
- Referee: Sander van der Eijk
- Europa League, matchday 2 of 8
- +17°, mostly clear
- Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo
published UTC
AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals
1.84Now 1.75 · 1.84 when published
AI models' pick · Two directions drew level; the one priced closer to the line was taken
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
likely score
1:2 9%0:1 8%0:0 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 4 days a draw shortened from 3.40 to 3.30 — money is coming in on the draw.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Under 2.5: 1.84 → 1.75 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (under 2.5 goals) has shortened from 1.84 to 1.75: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 · our bet |
|---|---|---|
| 2.09+0.01 | 1.75−0.01 | |
| 2.08+0.01 | 1.76 | |
| 2.07+0.01 | 1.76 | |
| We published under 2.5 goals at 1.84 | ||
| 2.06+0.10 | 1.76−0.08 | |
| 1.96opened | 1.84opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for under 2.5 goals. 6 more went for a Juventus win. The other 3 chose a bet each: double chance, a Celta Vigo handicap and both teams to score.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 12.10 at 08:42 UTC
A cautious game in Vigo looks more likely than an open one. In the closing weeks of last season Juventus went over 2.5 goals in only 37% of their away matches, with an average of 2.3 goals, and they kept a clean sheet in nearly half of those trips. At home, Celta Vigo saw over 2.5 goals land in a little under half their games, and in roughly one in five of them they did not concede at all. Across six official matches in La Liga and the Europa League, Celta have scored seven and conceded three, with xG of 1.2 against 0.68 — they create very little, but they allow almost nothing at the back either. The market leans the same way, rating under 2.5 goals at around 52%.
Where we could be wrong
The doubt is Juventus's attack as the squad stands now: 11 goals in five matches, xG of 1.46 per game, and Spalletti's side keep the ball rather than shut the game down. Celta's home fixtures last season, where both teams scored in nearly two thirds of cases, also argue against a low-scoring night, and the price on the hosts has eased slightly over the past two days. Even so, we're backing under 2.5 goals.
- Two directions drew the same number of AI models: the bet was taken from the one priced closer to the line.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Celta Vigono absences listed
Juventusno absences listed
managers: Claudio Giráldez · L. Spalletti
Recent matches
Celta Vigo| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | ElcheLaLiga | A | 0:0xG 0.3–0.8 | D |
| 19.09 | Racing SantanderLaLiga | H | 5:0xG 2.1–0.8 | W |
| 16.09 | Omonia | A | 0:1xG 1.2–0.3 | L |
| 13.09 | MálagaLaLiga | H | 1:1xG 1.9–0.4 | D |
| 07.09 | GetafeLaLiga | A | 1:1 | D |
| 03.09 | Real SociedadLaLiga | A | 0:0xG 0.4–1.1 | D |
Juventus| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | CagliariSerie A | A | 1:1xG 2.0–0.6 | D |
| 02.10 | Cremoneseclub friendly | H | 0:1 | L |
| 20.09 | AtalantaSerie A | H | 2:0xG 1.3–0.6 | W |
| 17.09 | NEC | H | 5:0 | W |
| 13.09 | SassuoloSerie A | A | 2:3xG 1.1–1.0 | L |
| 06.09 | MilanSerie A | H | 1:1 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | 1-0-0 | 5–0 | 3 | W |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 1-0-0 | 4–0 | 3 | W |
| 24 | Lillestrøm | 1 | 0-0-1 | 1–2 | 0 | L |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–1 | 0 | L |
| 26 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–1 | 0 | L |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
