22 Oct
Ferencváros vs Torreense: AI prediction and betting pick
On 22 October, Ferencváros host Torreense. The AI models' pick is Ferencváros −1.5 handicap at 2.03: 11 of 15 models chose it, 1 more went in the same direction.
- Europa League, matchday 3 of 8
- +11°, showers, wind 19 km/h
- Groupama Aréna, Budapest
published UTC
AI models' pick: Ferencváros −1.5 handicap
2.03AI models' pick · 11 of 15 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 86 won · 63 lost · 5 void · +3.46 units All results
likely score
1:1 10%2:1 10%1:0 9%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 4 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over the day the line on the result has held: prices have not moved by a single tick.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Ferencváros −1.5: 2.03 → 2.03 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Ferencváros −1.5 2.03 → 2.03, Torreense +1.5 1.77 → 1.77.
Price changes
| When | Ferencváros −1.5 · our bet | Torreense +1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| We published Ferencváros −1.5 handicap at 2.03 | ||
| 2.03opened | 1.77opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for Ferencváros −1.5. 3 more chose close bets in the same direction: Ferencváros −1 and a Ferencváros win. 2 more went for over 2.5 goals. One more went for at least one side failing to score.
- 9 of 15H1 (−1.5)our betodds 2.03ClaudeDeepSeek
GeminiKimiDeepSeek Flash
GLMMiniMaxMistral
Dots3-Note - 2 of 15H1 (−1)same directionodds 1.56ChatGPT
Sonar - 1 of 151same directionodds 1.38Nemotron Super
- 2 of 15O 2.5odds 1.62
GrokXiaomi MiMo - 1 of 15BTTS noodds 1.89Qwen
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 17.10 at 20:50 UTC
Ferencváros have scored 16 goals and conceded six in six matches this season, firing off 15.4 shots a game with 5.4 on target. Torreense, over the same six matches, have five goals scored and seven conceded, 4.3 shots with just 1.3 on target and only 25.8% possession — there is almost nothing to build an attack on. The Hungarians sit seventh with 6 points, the Portuguese nineteenth with 3, and a home win is priced at 1.38, around 69%. Control is expected from Ferencváros, and the -1.5 handicap asks for exactly what they produced at home in the spring: four wins and one draw, scoring 2.4 and conceding 0.6 per game. That is our pick at 2.03.
Where we could be wrong
The caveat is at the other end. Ferencváros allow 1.79 xG in defence of their own goal, and if Torreense sit deep from the first minute and slow the game down, a one-goal win sends the bet down. Add the schedule between the Europa League and the Hungarian championship: part of the first choice XI could well be rested, and with fresh substitutes on the pitch the hosts usually lose their cutting edge.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Ferencváros| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10 | Viktoria Plzeň | H | 2:1xG 2.4–2.0 | W |
| 10.10 | Debreceni VSCNB I | H | 1:1xG 1.6–1.6 | D |
| 20.09 | NyiregyhazaNB I | A | 1:1 | D |
| 17.09 | Celtic | A | 3:1 | W |
| 12.09 | DEACMagyar Kupa | A | 7:0 | W |
| 06.09 | UjpestNB I | H | 2:2 | D |
Torreense| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10 | Sunderland | H | 1:2xG 0.1–1.8 | L |
| 10.10 | TondelaLiga Portugal 2 | A | 0:1 | L |
| 17.09 | Lillestrøm | A | 2:1 | W |
| 11.09 | LeixoesLiga Portugal 2 | H | 0:0 | D |
| 05.09 | Benfica BLiga Portugal 2 | A | 2:0 | W |
| 29.08 | VizelaLiga Portugal 2 | H | 0:3 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Omonia | 2 | 2-0-0 | 4–0 | 6 | WW |
| 7 | Ferencváros | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5–2 | 6 | WW |
| 8 | Lyon | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5–3 | 6 | WW |
| 18 | OFI Crete | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3–2 | 3 | WL |
| 19 | Torreense | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3–3 | 3 | WL |
| 20 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 1-0-1 | 2–2 | 3 | LW |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
