22 Oct
Hoffenheim vs Lyon: AI prediction and betting pick
On 22 October, Hoffenheim host Lyon. The AI models' pick is Lyon or draw at 1.81: 6 of 15 models chose it.
- Europa League, matchday 3 of 8
- +9°, cloudy
- PreZero Arena, Sinsheim
published UTC
AI models' pick: Lyon or draw
1.81AI models' pick · 6 of 15 for this bet, 9 for others
Split panelOur football predictions so far: 86 won · 63 lost · 5 void · +3.46 units All results
likely score
2:1 9%1:0 9%2:0 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 4 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over the day the line on the result has held: prices have not moved by a single tick.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Lyon or draw: 1.81 → 1.81 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: 1X 1.32 → 1.32, 12 1.25 → 1.25, X2 1.81 → 1.81.
Price changes
| When | 1X | 12 | X2 · our bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| We published Lyon or draw at 1.81 | |||
| 1.32opened | 1.25opened | 1.81opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for Lyon not losing. 3 more chose close bets in the same direction: a Lyon win and Lyon draw no bet. 5 more went for both teams to score. The other 4 chose other bets: total-goals bets.
- 3 of 15X2our betodds 1.81
Gemini
SonarXiaomi MiMo - 2 of 152same directionodds 3.42
GLMMiniMax - 1 of 15DNB 2same directionodds 2.61ChatGPT
- 5 of 15BTTSodds 1.45ClaudeDeepSeek FlashMistral
Dots3-NoteNemotron Super - 3 of 15O 2.5odds 1.49DeepSeek
GrokKimi - 1 of 15O 3.5odds 2.28Qwen
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 17.10 at 20:50 UTC
Lyon come into this one in far better shape than their opponents. The French have six points and sit eighth in the table, while Hoffenheim are still without a point down in 30th. Lyon have scored 13 and conceded six so far this season, with expected goals of 2.08 against 1.3; Hoffenheim have nine goals for, 15 against and a negative xG balance. All three previous meetings ended level: 2-2 in November 2024 in the Europa League, 2-2 and 3-3 in 2018 in the Champions League.
Where we could be wrong
The hosts are still the bookmakers' favourites at 1.97, and the price has not moved in 24 hours. An away win is rated at 3.42, and a draw would serve our bet just as well, so we're backing Lyon or the draw at 1.81. The risk is clear enough: at home Hoffenheim keep the ball and shoot plenty, while Lyon are noticeably more cautious on the road than on their own pitch, and one moment in front of the Lyon goal would be enough to send the bet down.
- 6 of 15 AI models back this bet; more than half chose something else.
- Bookmakers: Hoffenheim looks more likely.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Hoffenheim| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10 | Beşiktaş | H | 2:3xG 1.2–3.4 | L |
| 10.10 | HamburgBundesliga | H | 2:3xG 1.1–1.3 | L |
| 20.09 | PaderbornBundesliga | A | 1:3xG 1.5–0.7 | L |
| 17.09 | OFI Crete | A | 0:2 | L |
| 12.09 | StuttgartBundesliga | H | 2:1 | W |
| 05.09 | Borussia DortmundBundesliga | H | 2:3xG 1.2–2.0 | L |
Lyon| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10 | Crystal Palace | H | 3:2xG 2.1–1.6 | W |
| 09.10 | LensLigue 1 | A | 1:2xG 1.1–1.4 | L |
| 19.09 | RennesLigue 1 | H | 4:0xG 3.1–1.4 | W |
| 16.09 | Anderlecht | A | 2:1xG 1.3–1.4 | W |
| 12.09 | ParisLigue 1 | A | 0:0 | D |
| 04.09 | AuxerreLigue 1 | H | 3:1xG 2.9–0.7 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
0–3–0Hoffenheim wins · draws · Lyon wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim vs Lyon | 2:2 | 07.11.24 | |
| Lyon vs Hoffenheim | 2:2 | 07.11.18 | Champions League |
| Hoffenheim vs Lyon | 3:3 | 23.10.18 | Champions League |
- both scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 3 of 3
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ferencváros | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5–2 | 6 | WW |
| 8 | Lyon | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5–3 | 6 | WW |
| 9 | Sunderland | 2 | 2-0-0 | 3–1 | 6 | WW |
| 29 | Anderlecht | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1–3 | 0 | LL |
| 30 | Hoffenheim | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2–5 | 0 | LL |
| 31 | Viktoria Plzeň | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1–5 | 0 | LL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
