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Lech Poznań vs Bayer Leverkusen: AI prediction and betting pick
On 15 October, Lech Poznań host Bayer Leverkusen. The AI models' pick is both teams to score at 1.53: 9 of 16 models chose it.
- Referee: Milos Milanovic
- Europa League, matchday 2 of 8
- +13°, overcast
- Enea Stadion, Poznań
published UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.53Now 1.51 · 1.53 when published
AI models' pick · 9 of 16 for this bet, 7 for others
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
likely score
1:1 9%1:3 7%0:2 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 4 days a Lech Poznań win drifted from 4.49 to 4.59 — fewer bets on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.53 → 1.51 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (both teams score) has shortened from 1.53 to 1.51: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.51 | 2.46+0.01 | |
| 1.51−0.01 | 2.45+0.02 | |
| We published both teams score at 1.53 | ||
| 1.52−0.01 | 2.43+0.05 | |
| 1.53opened | 2.38opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for both teams to score. 3 more went for a Bayer Leverkusen win. The other 4 chose other bets: total-goals bets and a Bayer Leverkusen handicap.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 12.10 at 08:41 UTC
Lech Poznań do not go in for cagey, low-scoring football at home. Last season both teams scored in 88% of their home matches, the hosts only rarely won without conceding, and they never once failed to score themselves. Bayer Leverkusen have been shipping goals in roughly two away games out of three, and this season they have 16 scored and 8 conceded in six games, so the visitors are hardly watertight at the back. Lech have 11 scored and 8 conceded in five matches, goals at both ends are nothing new for them, and the market rates both teams scoring at 61%.
Where we could be wrong
There is a case the other way. Bayer see plenty of the ball and can simply strangle a game, and on their travels they have been kept off the scoresheet in almost a quarter of trips. Lech have kept three clean sheets of their own this season, and a night like that would scupper the bet. Add in that most of Poznań's home numbers come from last season, when the club had a different squad. Even so, our pick is both teams to score at 1.53.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Lech Poznańno absences listed
Bayer Leverkusenno absences listed
managers: N. Frederiksen · Carles Martínez
Recent matches
Lech Poznań| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Śląsk WrocławEkstraklasa | A | 4:1xG 2.1–0.8 | W |
| 03.10 | Energie Cottbusclub friendly | H | 2:2 | D |
| 20.09 | Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa | H | 5:1xG 4.0–1.0 | W |
| 17.09 | Crystal Palace | A | 0:4 | L |
| 12.09 | Górnik ZabrzeEkstraklasa | A | 1:2 | L |
| 06.09 | Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa | H | 1:0xG 3.4–0.4 | W |
Bayer Leverkusen| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | MainzBundesliga | A | 4:3xG 1.7–2.9 | W |
| 20.09 | LeipzigBundesliga | H | 2:0xG 2.3–1.0 | W |
| 16.09 | Celje | H | 2:0xG 1.9–0.9 | W |
| 12.09 | AugsburgBundesliga | A | 2:2 | D |
| 05.09 | Union BerlinBundesliga | H | 4:0xG 3.1–0.4 | W |
| 29.08 | ElversbergBundesliga | A | 2:3xG 1.9–1.3 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2–0 | 3 | W |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2–0 | 3 | W |
| 9 | OFI Crete | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2–0 | 3 | W |
| 34 | Viktoria Plzeň | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–3 | 0 | L |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–4 | 0 | L |
| 36 | NEC | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–5 | 0 | L |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
