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Lyon vs Crystal Palace: AI prediction and betting pick
On 15 October, Lyon host Crystal Palace. The AI models' pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.66: 8 of 16 models chose it.
- Referee: Joao Pinheiro
- Europa League, matchday 2 of 8
- +22°, mostly clear
- Groupama Stadium, Lyon
published UTC
AI models' pick: Over 2.5 goals
1.66AI models' pick · 8 of 16 for this bet, 8 for others
Split panelOur football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
likely score
2:1 9%1:0 9%2:0 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 4 days a Crystal Palace win drifted from 3.03 to 3.07 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Over 2.5: 1.66 → 1.65 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Over 2.5 1.66 → 1.65, Under 2.5 2.20 → 2.25.
Price changes
| When | Over 2.5 · our bet | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.65 | 2.25+0.01 | |
| 1.65−0.01 | 2.24+0.02 | |
| 1.66 | 2.22−0.01 | |
| 1.66+0.01 | 2.23+0.01 | |
| We published over 2.5 goals at 1.66 | ||
| 1.65−0.01 | 2.22+0.02 | |
| 1.66opened | 2.20opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for over 2.5 goals. 4 more went for both teams to score. The other 4 chose other bets: a Lyon win and double chance.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 12.10 at 08:41 UTC
Lyon have scored 11 goals in six matches across Ligue 1 and the Europa League while conceding 5; Crystal Palace have 12 in five with 4 against. Both teams have reached October playing wide open. At home Lyon average 2.8 goals a game, with three or more arriving in 59% of those matches, while Crystal Palace's away games average 2.6 and 63% of them clear the same mark. The market makes over 2.5 goals a little better than an even chance, and the price on the hosts has drifted slightly over the past two days, so nobody in the betting ring is taking seriously a night decided by one strike with clean sheets at either end.
Where we could be wrong
Those away numbers for the visitors were built up at the end of last season, and even inside them there is another side: there were trips where Palace did not concede, and the same share where they failed to score themselves. They are happy to cede the ball and wait around their own penalty area, and if Lyon get bogged down in slow possession against a packed block, two goals between the sides may not arrive. Our pick is over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.66.
- 8 of 16 AI models back this bet: it is the most common answer, but the other half chose something else.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Injuries and suspensions
Lyonno absences listed
Crystal Palaceno absences listed
managers: Paulo Fonseca · P. Sage
Recent matches
Lyon| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09.10 | LensLigue 1 | A | 1:2xG 1.1–1.4 | L |
| 19.09 | RennesLigue 1 | H | 4:0xG 3.1–1.4 | W |
| 16.09 | Anderlecht | A | 2:1xG 1.3–1.4 | W |
| 12.09 | ParisLigue 1 | A | 0:0 | D |
| 04.09 | AuxerreLigue 1 | H | 3:1xG 2.9–0.7 | W |
| 29.08 | Le HavreLigue 1 | H | 1:1xG 1.8–0.7 | D |
Crystal Palace| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | Nottingham ForestPremier League | H | 3:1xG 2.4–3.0 | W |
| 03.10 | Bristol Cityclub friendly | H | 0:2 | L |
| 20.09 | Leeds UnitedPremier League | A | 0:0xG 1.1–1.3 | D |
| 17.09 | Lech Poznań | H | 4:0 | W |
| 12.09 | Ipswich TownPremier League | H | 2:3 | L |
| 08.09 | MiddlesbroughEFL Cup | H | 3:0 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
0–0–1Lyon wins · draws · Crystal Palace wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace vs Lyon | 2:0 | 05.08.23 | club friendly |
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | 1-0-0 | 5–0 | 3 | W |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 1-0-0 | 4–0 | 3 | W |
| 3 | Sparta Prague | 1 | 1-0-0 | 4–1 | 3 | W |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2–1 | 3 | W |
| 11 | Lyon | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2–1 | 3 | W |
| 12 | Torreense | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2–1 | 3 | W |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
