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Marseille vs Olympiacos: AI prediction and betting pick
On 15 October, Marseille host Olympiacos. The AI models' pick is Olympiacos or draw at 1.70: 7 of 16 models chose it, 3 more went in the same direction.
- Referee: Michael Oliver
- Europa League, matchday 2 of 8
- +20°, clear
- Stade Orange Vélodrome, Marseille
published UTC
AI models' pick: Olympiacos or draw
1.70Now 1.62 · 1.70 when published
AI models' pick · 7 of 16 on this bet · 3 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
likely score
2:1 10%2:0 9%1:0 9%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 4 days an Olympiacos win shortened from 3.13 to 2.96 — money is coming in on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Olympiacos or draw: 1.70 → 1.62 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (Olympiacos or draw) has shortened from 1.70 to 1.62: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | 1X | 12 | X2 · our bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.37 | 1.28+0.01 | 1.62−0.01 | |
| 1.37−0.01 | 1.27 | 1.63+0.01 | |
| 1.38+0.04 | 1.27 | 1.62−0.06 | |
| We published Olympiacos or draw at 1.70 | |||
| 1.34 | 1.27 | 1.68−0.01 | |
| 1.34+0.01 | 1.27 | 1.69−0.01 | |
| 1.33opened | 1.27opened | 1.70opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for Olympiacos not losing. 3 more chose close bets in the same direction: Olympiacos +1 and an Olympiacos win. 2 more each for a Marseille win and for under 2.5 goals. The other 2 chose a bet each: both teams to score and 'both to score — no'.
- 7 of 16X2our betodds 1.70ChatGPTClaude
Gemini
GrokKimiQwenXiaomi MiMo - 2 of 16H2 (+1)same directionodds 1.36
GLMNemotron Ultra - 2 of 161odds 2.16
SonarNemotron Super - 2 of 16U 2.5odds 2.19DeepSeekDeepSeek Flash
- 1 of 16BTTSodds 1.56Mistral
- 1 of 16BTTS noodds 2.32MiniMax
- 1 of 162same directionodds 3.11
Dots3-Note
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 12.10 at 08:42 UTC
The visitors arrive in far better shape. Olympiacos have scored eight and conceded five in six matches of the new season, they average 18.6 shots a game and they hold a big edge on expected goals, 1.53 against 0.46. Marseille, across the same six matches, have six goals scored and 12 conceded, and after matchday one they sit on no points against three for the Greeks. The odds have drifted against the hosts over two days: a home win from 2.14 to 2.16, an away win from 3.13 to 3.11.
Where we could be wrong
At home Marseille nearly always find the net. Late last season at the Vélodrome they failed to score in only 6% of matches, and over 2.5 goals landed in 71% of them. The away clean sheets Olympiacos have kept come from a small number of games with the current squad, and an early goal for the hosts would tear up the Greek plan for the evening. Even so, we're backing Olympiacos or draw at 1.70.
- Bookmakers: Marseille looks more likely.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Injuries and suspensions
Marseilleno absences listed
Olympiacosno absences listed
managers: Bruno Genesio · Imanol Alguacil
Recent matches
Marseille| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | TroyesLigue 1 | A | 2:0xG 1.4–1.1 | W |
| 20.09 | Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1 | H | 1:2 | L |
| 17.09 | Beşiktaş | A | 1:4 | L |
| 11.09 | RennesLigue 1 | A | 0:1 | L |
| 06.09 | ParisLigue 1 | H | 2:3 | L |
| 30.08 | MonacoLigue 1 | A | 0:2xG 1.4–1.7 | L |
Olympiacos| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | PanathinaikosGreek Super League | H | 1:0xG 0.8–0.5 | W |
| 20.09 | LevadiakosGreek Super League | A | 1:0xG 1.2–0.4 | W |
| 16.09 | Jagiellonia Białystok | H | 2:1xG 2.5–0.5 | W |
| 12.09 | OFI CreteGreek Super League | H | 0:1 | L |
| 08.09 | Volos NFCGreek Cup | H | 3:2 | W |
| 05.09 | Volos NFCGreek Super League | A | 1:1xG 1.6–0.4 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
2–0–2Marseille wins · draws · Olympiacos wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille vs Olympiacos | 2:1 | 01.12.20 | Champions League |
| Olympiacos vs Marseille | 1:0 | 21.10.20 | Champions League |
| Marseille vs Olympiacos | 0:1 | 23.11.11 | Champions League |
| Olympiacos vs Marseille | 0:1 | 13.09.11 | Champions League |
- both scored in 1 of the last 4 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 1 of 4
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Torreense | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2–1 | 3 | W |
| 13 | Olympiacos | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2–1 | 3 | W |
| 14 | Salzburg | 1 | 1-0-0 | 1–0 | 3 | W |
| 31 | Celje | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–2 | 0 | L |
| 32 | Marseille | 1 | 0-0-1 | 1–4 | 0 | L |
| 33 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 0-0-1 | 1–4 | 0 | L |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
