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NEC vs Levski Sofia: AI prediction and betting pick
On 15 October, NEC host Levski Sofia. The AI models' pick is NEC to win at 1.87: 4 of 16 models chose it, 2 more went in the same direction.
- Referee: Aliyar Agayev
- Europa League, matchday 2 of 8
- +17°, mostly clear
- Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
published UTC
AI models' pick: NEC to win
1.87Now 1.81 · 1.87 when published
AI models' pick · 4 of 16 on this bet · 2 more in the same direction
Split panelOur football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
likely score
2:1 10%3:0 9%1:1 9%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 4 days a NEC win shortened from 1.87 to 1.81 — money is coming in on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — NEC: 1.87 → 1.81 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (a NEC win) has shortened from 1.87 to 1.81: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | NEC · our bet | Draw | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.81−0.01 | 3.72−0.01 | 4.13+0.06 | |
| 1.82−0.01 | 3.73+0.04 | 4.07+0.01 | |
| 1.83 | 3.69−0.01 | 4.06+0.02 | |
| 1.83−0.04 | 3.70+0.03 | 4.04+0.20 | |
| We published a NEC win at 1.87 | |||
| 1.87 | 3.67 | 3.84+0.01 | |
| 1.87opened | 3.67opened | 3.83opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for a NEC win. 2 more chose close bets in the same direction: NEC not losing and NEC −1. 4 more went for over 2.5 goals. The other 6 chose other bets: both teams to score, a Levski Sofia handicap, double chance and a total-goals bet.
- 4 of 16O 2.5odds 1.75QwenXiaomi MiMo
Dots3-NoteNemotron Ultra - 4 of 161our betodds 1.87KimiDeepSeek Flash
SonarNemotron Super - 3 of 16BTTSodds 1.67DeepSeek
GeminiMistral - 1 of 161Xsame directionodds 1.24MiniMax
- 1 of 16H2 (+1)odds 1.50ChatGPT
- 1 of 16X2odds 1.91Claude
- 1 of 16U 2.5odds 2.07
GLM - 1 of 16H1 (−1)same directionodds 2.56
Grok
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 12.10 at 08:42 UTC
Late last season NEC's home games went over 2.5 goals in 82% of matches, and they were almost always on the scoresheet themselves. The initiative still belongs to the Dutch side: they dominate possession and average 11.5 shots a game against 8.8 for Levski Sofia, who hit the target roughly once a match. Those spring numbers carry limited weight after transfers and changes of coach, while Levski's away record comes from only five games, all against Bulgarian league opposition, where the Sofia side kept four clean sheets. The prices have not moved in two days: half the chances go to the hosts, with 24% for the visitors.
Where we could be wrong
The worry is how NEC have started. In six games across the Dutch league and the Europa League they have scored five, conceded 15 and are still without a win, and an xG of 1.06 against 1.77 says the problem is not only at the back. Levski have scored five and conceded five over the same stretch, and a team that can sit deep and strike on the counter is capable of taking a point off NEC. Even so, the hosts create far more at home, and our pick is NEC to win at 1.87.
- 4 of 16 AI models back this bet and 2 more chose a close bet in the same direction; more than half chose something else.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
NECno absences listed
Levski Sofiano absences listed
managers: Dick Schreuder · Julio Velázquez
Recent matches
NEC| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | AjaxEredivisie | A | 1:1xG 1.1–1.9 | D |
| 20.09 | GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie | H | 1:1xG 1.0–2.3 | D |
| 17.09 | Juventus | A | 0:5 | L |
| 12.09 | CambuurEredivisie | A | 0:3 | L |
| 08.09 | ExcelsiorEredivisie | H | 2:2xG 1.4–1.8 | D |
| 05.09 | FeyenoordEredivisie | H | 1:3xG 0.7–1.1 | L |
Levski Sofia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | Cherno More VarnaBulgarian First League | A | 2:0 | W |
| 20.09 | LudogoretsBulgarian First League | H | — | |
| 17.09 | Salzburg | H | 0:1 | L |
| 13.09 | Botev VratsaBulgarian First League | A | 0:0 | D |
| 09.09 | CSKA SofiaSuper Cup | H | 2:4 | L |
| 05.09 | CSKA 1948Bulgarian First League | H | 1:0 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–1 | 0 | L |
| 27 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–1 | 0 | L |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | 0-0-1 | 1–3 | 0 | L |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–4 | 0 | L |
| 36 | NEC | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–5 | 0 | L |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
