22 Oct
Omonia vs Benfica: AI prediction and betting pick
On 22 October, Omonia host Benfica. The AI models' pick is Benfica −1 handicap at 1.62: 8 of 15 models chose it, 2 more went in the same direction.
- Europa League, matchday 3 of 8
- +19°, clear
- Neo GSP, Nicosia
published UTC
AI models' pick: Benfica −1 handicap
1.62Asian handicap: the bet wins if Benfica win by two goals or more; a one-goal win returns the stake.
AI models' pick · 8 of 15 on this bet · 2 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 86 won · 63 lost · 5 void · +3.46 units All results
likely score
0:0 10%0:1 10%0:2 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 4 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over the day the line on the result has held: prices have not moved by a single tick.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOmonia 7.22 → 7.22 over the day · 15 snapshotsView
This market has barely moved: Omonia 7.22 → 7.22, Draw 4.86 → 4.86, Benfica 1.40 → 1.40.
Price changes
| When | Omonia | Draw | Benfica |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.22opened | 4.86opened | 1.40opened |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for Benfica −1. 5 more chose close bets in the same direction: Benfica −1.5 and a Benfica win. 2 more went for over 2.5 goals. The other 3 chose a bet each: an Omonia handicap, both teams to score and double chance.
- 5 of 15H2 (−1)our betodds 1.62
GrokQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMiniMax - 3 of 15H2 (−1.5)same directionodds 2.13DeepSeekKimiMistral
- 2 of 152same directionodds 1.40
SonarNemotron Super - 2 of 15O 2.5odds 1.63ChatGPT
Gemini - 1 of 15H1 (+1.5)odds 1.70Claude
- 1 of 15BTTSodds 1.81
Dots3-Note - 1 of 151Xodds 2.93Xiaomi MiMo
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 17.10 at 20:50 UTC
Omonia have been hard to break down at home: three wins in a row with two goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game, and across six matches this season the Cypriots have scored 15 and conceded just two. Winning by two or more goals against a side in that shape is no simple task. But Benfica create chances on a different level: 16 scored and five conceded, 18.3 shots per match and an xG of 1.89 against 1.03. On the road the Portuguese have two wins, a draw and one defeat, averaging 1.8 goals a game. The market keeps them at 1.4 for the win and the odds have not moved at all over the past day, while the handicap of −1 is rated at 58%. Our pick is Benfica −1 handicap at 1.62.
Where we could be wrong
The worry is the pattern of Benfica's away games in the Europa League: both teams scored in 59% of them, and one goal conceded in Nicosia would leave the bet without a settlement. Last season's averages count for little after transfers and changes of coach, and at the GSP Omonia have already kept opponents off the scoresheet.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Omonia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10 | Celje | A | 3:0xG 2.1–1.0 | W |
| 09.10 | Karmiotissa1. Division | A | 3:0 | W |
| 20.09 | Krasava Ypsonas1. Division | H | 4:1 | W |
| 16.09 | Celta Vigo | H | 1:0xG 0.3–1.2 | W |
| 12.09 | Apollon Limassol1. Division | H | 0:0 | D |
| 07.09 | Aris1. Division | A | 4:1 | W |
Benfica| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10 | Celtic | H | 4:1xG 3.2–1.4 | W |
| 11.10 | Vitória SCPrimeira Liga | H | 2:0xG 2.8–0.5 | W |
| 20.09 | PortoPrimeira Liga | A | 1:3xG 0.8–1.3 | L |
| 16.09 | Milan | A | 2:0xG 0.6–1.0 | W |
| 13.09 | GIL VicentePrimeira Liga | H | 3:1 | W |
| 09.09 | MoreirensePrimeira Liga | A | 4:0 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 2-0-0 | 6–0 | 6 | WW |
| 3 | Benfica | 2 | 2-0-0 | 6–1 | 6 | WW |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 2 | 2-0-0 | 7–3 | 6 | WW |
| 5 | Bournemouth | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5–1 | 6 | WW |
| 6 | Omonia | 2 | 2-0-0 | 4–0 | 6 | WW |
| 7 | Ferencváros | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5–2 | 6 | WW |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1500
- 16-3040
- 31-4501
- 46-6020
- 61-7501
- 76-9042
- 0-1540
- 16-3040
- 31-4552
- 46-6041
- 61-7532
- 76-9052
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
