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Sparta Prague vs Lillestrøm: AI prediction and betting pick
On 15 October, Sparta Prague host Lillestrøm. The AI models' pick is Sparta Prague −1.5 handicap at 2.00: 14 of 16 models chose it.
- Referee: Martin Matosa
- Europa League, matchday 2 of 8
- +14°, overcast
- epet ARENA, Prague
published UTC
AI models' pick: Sparta Prague −1.5 handicap
2.00Now 1.95 · 2.00 when published
AI models' pick · 14 of 16 for this bet, 2 for others
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
likely score
1:0 11%0:0 10%2:0 9%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 9 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 4 days a Lillestrøm win drifted from 7.69 to 7.98 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Sparta Prague −1.5: 2.00 → 1.95 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (Sparta Prague −1.5 handicap) has shortened from 2.00 to 1.95: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Sparta Prague −1.5 · our bet | Lillestrøm +1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.95−0.03 | 1.86+0.02 | |
| 1.98 | 1.84+0.01 | |
| We published Sparta Prague −1.5 handicap at 2.00 | ||
| 1.98−0.02 | 1.83+0.02 | |
| 2.00opened | 1.81opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for Sparta Prague −1.5. The other 2 chose a bet each: a total-goals bet and 'both to score — no'.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 12.10 at 08:41 UTC
Sparta Prague have been ruthless since the season began: 16 goals scored and one conceded in five competitive matches, 60.8% possession and 21.5 shots a game, seven of them on target. Lillestrøm look a good deal more modest — 12 scored and nine conceded in six outings, 48.6% of the ball, and an xG balance in the red, 1.5 of their own against 2.42 for their opponents. The prices split just as sharply, 1.35 on the hosts and 7.81 on the visitors, while a Sparta win by two or more goals is given around half the chances. Conditions in Prague should suit the passing game too: mild at 14 degrees and barely a breath of wind.
Where we could be wrong
A handicap of one and a half goals does not forgive a cautious start, though, and Lillestrøm score regularly enough to snatch the first goal — after which the match takes a very different shape. Only one round of the Europa League group has been played, both squads changed over the summer, and last season's home hammerings are no promise of a repeat. We're still backing the Sparta Prague −1.5 handicap at 2.00.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Sparta Pragueno absences listed
Lillestrømno absences listed
managers: Brian Priske · H. Ødegaard
Recent matches
Sparta Prague| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | PardubiceCzech First League | H | 2:0xG 2.4–1.1 | W |
| 02.10 | Vysočina Jihlavaclub friendly | H | 5:3 | W |
| 20.09 | Sigma OlomoucCzech First League | A | 3:0xG 1.9–0.9 | W |
| 16.09 | Ararat-Armenia | A | 4:1 | W |
| 12.09 | JablonecCzech First League | H | 2:0 | W |
| 09.09 | Viktoria Žižkovcup | A | 5:0 | W |
Lillestrøm| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | MoldeEliteserien | H | 2:2xG 1.7–3.0 | D |
| 01.10 | BærumNorwegian Cup | A | 5:1 | W |
| 20.09 | VikingEliteserien | A | 0:3 | L |
| 17.09 | Torreense | H | 1:2 | L |
| 12.09 | ValerengaEliteserien | H | 2:0 | W |
| 05.09 | BrannEliteserien | A | 2:1xG 1.3–1.9 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 1-0-0 | 4–0 | 3 | W |
| 3 | Sparta Prague | 1 | 1-0-0 | 4–1 | 3 | W |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 1-0-0 | 4–1 | 3 | W |
| 23 | Anderlecht | 1 | 0-0-1 | 1–2 | 0 | L |
| 24 | Lillestrøm | 1 | 0-0-1 | 1–2 | 0 | L |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–1 | 0 | L |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
