22 Oct
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: AI prediction and betting pick
On 22 October, Sturm Graz host Marseille. The AI models' pick is under 2.5 goals at 2.12: 6 of 15 models chose it.
- Europa League, matchday 3 of 8
- +12°, clear
- Merkur Arena, Graz
published UTC
AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals
2.12AI models' pick · 6 of 15 for this bet, 9 for others
Split panelOur football predictions so far: 86 won · 63 lost · 5 void · +3.46 units All results
likely score
0:1 11%0:2 11%1:2 10%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 4 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over the day the line on the result has held: prices have not moved by a single tick.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Under 2.5: 2.12 → 2.12 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Over 2.5 1.71 → 1.71, Under 2.5 2.12 → 2.12.
Price changes
| When | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 · our bet |
|---|---|---|
| We published under 2.5 goals at 2.12 | ||
| 1.71opened | 2.12opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for under 2.5 goals. 3 more went for Sturm Graz not losing. The other 6 chose other bets: both teams to score, double chance, a Sturm Graz handicap, a total-goals bet and a Marseille win.
- 6 of 15U 2.5our betodds 2.12ChatGPTDeepSeekKimiDeepSeek Flash
GLMMiniMax - 3 of 151Xodds 1.77Claude
Gemini
Dots3-Note - 2 of 15BTTSodds 1.60MistralXiaomi MiMo
- 1 of 15X2odds 1.31
Sonar - 1 of 15H1 (+1)odds 1.37Nemotron Super
- 1 of 15O 2.5odds 1.71Qwen
- 1 of 152odds 2.02
Grok
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 17.10 at 20:50 UTC
Both sides come into the third round still without a win, and each has the same soft spot: the attack. Sturm Graz's home games have been low-scoring since the back end of last season — 2.1 goals on average, with over 2.5 goals landing in under a third of them and the hosts keeping a clean sheet in nearly two of every five. The squad and the coaching staff have changed since, but the football in Graz has not. Marseille have failed to score in more than four of every ten away matches, and this season they have managed six goals in six games with modest shooting numbers. The market rates a low-scoring game at 45%, little short of an even chance, and our pick is under 2.5 goals at 2.12.
Where we could be wrong
The argument against is Marseille's defending. They have shipped 11 goals in six matches, and with a back line in that state one early goal can stretch the game right out. In Sturm Graz's home fixtures both teams have scored in 56% of cases, and points are urgent at both ends: one from two rounds for the hosts, none at all for the visitors. Neither side can afford to play it safe for the whole game.
- 6 of 15 AI models back this bet: it is the most common answer, but more than half chose something else.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Sturm Graz| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10 | Bournemouth | A | 0:3xG 0.4–2.9 | L |
| 10.10 | Austria ViennaBundesliga | A | 2:0xG 2.5–2.0 | W |
| 02.10 | Floridsdorfer ACclub friendly | H | 3:1 | W |
| 20.09 | SalzburgBundesliga | A | 0:3xG 0.5–1.6 | L |
| 16.09 | Rennes | H | 0:0 | D |
| 13.09 | LASKBundesliga | H | 2:1 | W |
Marseille| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10 | Olympiacos | H | 0:1xG 0.9–0.6 | L |
| 11.10 | TroyesLigue 1 | A | 2:0xG 1.4–1.1 | W |
| 20.09 | Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1 | H | 1:2 | L |
| 17.09 | Beşiktaş | A | 1:4 | L |
| 11.09 | RennesLigue 1 | A | 0:1 | L |
| 06.09 | ParisLigue 1 | H | 2:3 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1–2 | 1 | DL |
| 26 | Sturm Graz | 2 | 0-1-1 | 0–3 | 1 | DL |
| 27 | NEC | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1–6 | 1 | LD |
| 31 | Viktoria Plzeň | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1–5 | 0 | LL |
| 32 | Marseille | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1–5 | 0 | LL |
| 33 | Celtic | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2–7 | 0 | LL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
