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Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad: AI prediction and betting pick
On 15 October, Union Saint-Gilloise host Real Sociedad. The AI models' pick is Union Saint-Gilloise to win at 2.36: 8 of 16 models chose it.
- Referee: Goga Kikacheishvili
- Europa League, matchday 2 of 8
- +21°, mostly clear
- Stade Joseph Mariën, Brussels
published UTC
AI models' pick: Union Saint-Gilloise to win
2.36Now 2.38 · 2.36 when published
AI models' pick · 8 of 16 for this bet, 8 for others
Split panelOur football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
likely score
1:0 12%2:0 11%2:1 10%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 9 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 4 days a Union Saint-Gilloise win drifted from 2.28 to 2.38 — fewer bets on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Union Saint-Gilloise: 2.36 → 2.38 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (a Union Saint-Gilloise win) has drifted from 2.36 to 2.38: the market now rates it as less likely.
Price changes
| When | Union Saint-Gilloise · our bet | Draw | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.38−0.01 | 3.57 | 2.74−0.01 | |
| 2.39+0.01 | 3.57 | 2.75 | |
| 2.38+0.01 | 3.57−0.01 | 2.75−0.01 | |
| 2.37+0.01 | 3.58+0.03 | 2.76−0.01 | |
| We published a Union Saint-Gilloise win at 2.36 | |||
| 2.36+0.07 | 3.55+0.01 | 2.77−0.10 | |
| 2.29+0.01 | 3.54+0.04 | 2.87−0.02 | |
| 2.28opened | 3.50opened | 2.89opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for a Union Saint-Gilloise win. 4 more went for over 2.5 goals. The other 4 chose other bets: both teams to score and 'both to score — no'.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 12.10 at 08:41 UTC
Union Saint-Gilloise have been ruthless: 17 goals scored and three conceded across six games in the Belgian league and the Europa League. They are hitting the target 8.5 times a match, against 3.6 for Real Sociedad, and the xG they create tells the same story — 2.09 to 1.48. Real Sociedad have 10 goals scored and 11 conceded from five matches, and they came away from the opening matchday with no points while the Belgians took three. Late last season the hosts kept a clean sheet in 65% of their home games, while Real Sociedad hardly ever managed to keep their goal intact on the road. Even so, the prices have drifted towards the visitors over the past two days: the home win has gone from 2.28 to 2.36.
Where we could be wrong
The caveats are genuine. Those home numbers belong to last season, and after the summer transfers and the coaching changes they carry less weight than usual; on top of that, the game is not at Union's own ground but in Leuven. Both teams have scored in 79% of Real Sociedad's away matches, and the Spanish side have enough quality up front to punish the hosts if the game opens up. We are still backing Union Saint-Gilloise to win at 2.36.
- 8 of 16 AI models back this bet: it is the most common answer, but the other half chose something else.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Union Saint-Gilloiseno absences listed
Real Sociedadno absences listed
managers: David Hubert · P. Matarazzo
Recent matches
Union Saint-Gilloise| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | OH LeuvenBelgian Pro League | H | 1:1xG 1.3–1.3 | D |
| 20.09 | AntwerpBelgian Pro League | A | 2:0xG 3.3–0.4 | W |
| 17.09 | Viktoria Plzeň | A | 3:0 | W |
| 12.09 | Lommel UnitedBelgian Pro League | H | 5:0 | W |
| 05.09 | CharleroiBelgian Pro League | A | 3:2xG 1.2–2.2 | W |
| 02.09 | Sint-TruidenBelgian Pro League | A | 3:0xG 2.5–0.8 | W |
Real Sociedad| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | Deportivo La CoruñaLaLiga | H | 3:2xG 1.5–2.0 | W |
| 02.10 | Athletic Bilbaoclub friendly | H | 0:1 | L |
| 20.09 | ValenciaLaLiga | A | 3:2xG 2.6–1.6 | W |
| 17.09 | Bournemouth | H | 1:2 | L |
| 13.09 | Atlético MadridLaLiga | H | 0:3xG 0.3–2.0 | L |
| 07.09 | ElcheLaLiga | A | 3:2 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 1-0-0 | 4–1 | 3 | W |
| 5 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 1-0-0 | 3–0 | 3 | W |
| 6 | Ferencváros | 1 | 1-0-0 | 3–1 | 3 | W |
| 21 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 1 | 0-0-1 | 1–2 | 0 | L |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0-0-1 | 1–2 | 0 | L |
| 23 | Anderlecht | 1 | 0-0-1 | 1–2 | 0 | L |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
