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data updated 14.10 03:20

FINISHED

Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético Madrid 1:2: result and odds

Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético Madrid finished 1:2. The AI models' pick was Atlético Madrid to win at 1.79, and it won.

published · updated UTC

Deportivo Alavés
Atlético Madrid

AI models' pick: Atlético Madrid to win

1.79

AI models' pick · 7 of 16 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction

Split panel

Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results

won+0.79 unitsclosing odds1.80CLV−1%
what these numbers mean
won / lost
The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
closing odds
The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
CLV
How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
Why this betAll odds

likely score

1:114%odds 6.17

0:0 10%1:0 9%0:1 8%

The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 5 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

What the odds were

line before kick-off, last update 10.10 13:08

result14.38+0.79X3.73+0.2321.81 — matches our bet−0.18
total 2.5O1.84−0.03U1.99−0.01
both to scoreyes1.73+0.03no2.02−0.05
double chance1X2.01+0.19121.26−0.02X21.21−0.06
handicapH1 +0.52.05+0.18H2 −0.51.79−0.20

Over 16 days an Atlético Madrid win shortened from 1.99 to 1.81 — money is coming in on the away side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Atlético Madrid: 1.79 → 1.81 since we publishedView

Since we published, our bet (an Atlético Madrid win) has drifted from 1.79 to 1.81: the market now rates it as less likely.

Deportivo Alavés3.59 → 4.38Draw3.50 → 3.73Atlético Madrid1.99 → 1.81our bet
1.752.503.004.0011 daysno data2 daysno data24 Sep25 Sep26 Sep27 Sep8 Oct10 OctWe published · 1.79Deportivo Alavés 4.38Draw 3.73Atlético Madrid 1.81

Price changes

Price changes in the 1X2 market
WhenDeportivo AlavésDrawAtlético Madrid · our bet
4.38+0.043.73+0.041.81+0.02
8 Oct – 10 Oct · no snapshots for 2 days
We published an Atlético Madrid win at 1.79
4.34+0.753.69+0.191.79−0.20
27 Sep – 8 Oct · no snapshots for 11 days
3.59opened3.50opened1.99opened
56 snapshots · the prices changed 2 times

How the match went

half-time 1:1

match report · 10.10 18:00

Atlético Madrid won 2-1 at Alavés, needing a stoppage-time concession and a late breakthrough to get there. Grimaldo put Atlético ahead on 33 minutes, converting Jonathan David's pass, before Boyé levelled from the penalty spot in first-half stoppage time, making it 1-1 at the break. Angel Pérez Hidalgo was sent off for Alavés on 61 minutes, and despite the extra man Atlético had to wait until 87 minutes, when Cristian Romero scored from Baena's assist to decide it. Atlético had 2.14 xG to Alavés' 1.13. They also had 22 shots to eight. On target it was seven to three, and possession finished 68% to 32%. Our bet on Atlético Madrid to win at 1.79 landed. Before kick-off the market had Atlético at 1.81 and Alavés out at 4.38, with the exact 1-2 scoreline on offer at 7.84.

  1. 33'Atlético MadridAlejandro Grimaldo (Jonathan David)0:1
  2. 45'Atlético MadridAdemola Lookman YC
  3. 45'Atlético Madridon Alejandro Baena Rodríguez, off Jonathan David
  4. 45'Atlético Madridon Julián Álvarez, off Ademola Lookman
  5. 45+1'Atlético MadridRobin Le Normand YC
  6. 45+6'Deportivo AlavésLucas Boyé penalty1:1
  7. 57'Atlético Madridon Lee Kang-In, off Pablo Barrios Rivas
  8. 61'Deportivo AlavésAngel Pérez Hidalgo RC
  9. 62'Atlético Madridon Dávid Hancko, off Robin Le Normand
  10. 64'Deportivo Alavéson Carlos Protesoni, off Antonio Blanco
  11. 64'Deportivo Alavéson Mariano Díaz, off Toni Martínez
  12. 64'Deportivo Alavéson Ander Guevara, off Lucas Boyé
  13. 71'Deportivo Alavéson Ville Koski, off Nicolas Valentini
  14. 73'Atlético Madridon Alexander Sørloth, off Giuliano Simeone Baldini
  15. 79'Deportivo Alavéson Aitor Mañas, off Denis Suárez
  16. 87'Atlético MadridCristian Romero (Alejandro Baena Rodríguez)1:2
  17. 90+2'Atlético MadridJohnny Cardoso YC
Match stats: Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético Madrid
Deportivo AlavésstatAtlético Madrid
1.13expected goals (xG)2.14
8shots22
3on target7
32%possession68%
0corners10
11fouls14
5saves2
0yellow cards3
1red cards0
what these numbers mean
expected goals (xG)
How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
feed rating
The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.

Starting line-ups

Deportivo Alavés

formation 3-5-2 · manager Quique Sánchez Flores

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1Sivera6.8
  • 17Jonny6.4
  • 2N. Valentini6.2
  • 14N. Tenaglia6.5
  • 21A. Rebbach6.0
  • 19Pablo Ibáñez6.6
  • 8Antonio Blanco6.3
  • 4Denis Suárez6.7
  • 7Angel Pérez5.5
  • 15L. Boyé6.6
  • 11Toni Martínez6.4
substitutes
  • 3Yusi
  • 24Selu Diallo
  • 10Carles Aleñá
  • 9M. Díazon 64'6.3
  • 6Guevaraon 64'6.0
  • 16V. Koskion 71'6.2
  • 20Aitor Mañason 79'6.5
  • 12Hugo Novoa
  • 27X. Olaiz
  • 23C. Benavídezon 64'6.1
  • 13A. Giménez
  • 22Miguel Rodríguez
Atlético Madrid

formation 4-4-2 · manager D. Simeone

starting XIfeed rating
  • 13J. Oblak6.5
  • 22Álex Grimaldo — highest feed rating in the match8.4
  • 24Robin Le Normand6.3
  • 21C. Romero7.8
  • 14Marcos Llorente7.2
  • 8Pablo Barrios7.0
  • 20G. Simeone6.7
  • 5J. Cardoso6.7
  • 6Koke7.2
  • 15J. David7.3
  • 11A. Lookman5.9
substitutes
  • 9A. Sørlothon 73'6.6
  • 18Marc Pubill
  • 16Arnau Ortiz
  • 1J. Musso
  • 7Lee Kang-Inon 57'6.4
  • 23M. Hjulmand
  • 17D. Hanckoon 62'6.9
  • 27J. Dominguez
  • 46J. Castillo
  • 10Álex Baenaon 45'7.3
  • 19J. Álvarezon 45'6.8
  • 30Dani Martínez

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models bet on an Atlético Madrid win — the bet won. One more chose a close bet in the same direction: Atlético Madrid −1. 4 more bet on over 2.5 goals — the bet won. The other 4 chose other bets: a total-goals bet, both teams to score and 'both to score — no'.

  • 7 of 162our betodds 1.79ChatGPTGeminiGrokKimiQwenGLMSonarwon
  • 4 of 16O 2.5odds 1.87DeepSeek FlashXiaomi MiMoDots3-NoteNemotron Ultrawon
  • 2 of 16U 2.5odds 2.00DeepSeekMiniMaxlost
  • 1 of 16BTTSodds 1.70Nemotron Superwon
  • 1 of 16BTTS noodds 2.07Claudelost
  • 1 of 16H2 (−1)same directionodds 2.81Mistralvoid

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 09.10 at 11:21 UTC

Seven rounds in, Atlético Madrid sit second with 16 points, while Deportivo Alavés are sixth on 11. The visitors have four wins from their last five, with 12 goals scored and five conceded, and on the road they average two goals a game. The record is just as one-sided: in ten previous meetings Alavés have only two wins against six defeats, and Atlético took the most recent one 1-0 in January 2026. Over the past fortnight the price on the away win has come in from 1.99 to 1.79, which puts Atlético at a 53% chance.

Where we could be wrong

The question is whether that attack can break down a tight, cagey game at Mendizorroza. At home Alavés concede 0.8 per match and have kept a clean sheet in half their games, and Atlético's two previous trips to Vitoria ended 1-1 in August 2025 and 0-0 in May 2025. We're still backing Atlético Madrid to win at 1.79.

  • 7 of 16 AI models back this bet and 1 more chose a close bet in the same direction: it is the most common answer, but the other half chose something else.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first
Deportivo Alavés
Recent matches: Deportivo Alavés
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19.09Athletic BilbaoA0:0D
15.09ValenciaH0:1L
12.09Racing SantanderA1:2L
06.09OsasunaH5:2W
28.08VillarrealH1:0W
Atlético Madrid
Recent matches: Atlético Madrid
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20.09Real MadridH2:1W
16.09OsasunaH4:0W
13.09Real SociedadA3:0W
09.09LiverpoolChampions LeagueA1:2L
05.09Athletic BilbaoA0:3L

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstDeportivo AlavésAtlético MadridLaLiga
goals1.5 / 12.3 / 11.5
xG1.3 / 1.31.8 / 1.11.5
shots11.9 / 13.417.6 / 9.513.4
shots on target4.3 / 4.56.5 / 3.34.7
corners3.8 / 5.85.6 / 2.64.9
fouls13.3 / 13.312.5 / 11.812.4
yellow cards1.8 / 2.31.9 / 1.82.1
matches over 2.550%88%
both scored50%50%
clean sheets38%38%
failed to score25%13%
home / away
goals2 / 12 / 1.3
average total33.3
matches over 2.560%100%
both scored40%50%
  • Deportivo Alavés shoot less often than the league average: 11.9 shots vs 13.4
  • Atlético Madrid score more than the league average: 2.3 vs 1.5
  • Atlético Madrid: 3 league wins in a row
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Deportivo Alavés, away games only for Atlético Madrid

Head to head

last 10

2–2–6Deportivo Alavés wins · draws · Atlético Madrid wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés1:018.01.26
Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético Madrid1:130.08.25
Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético Madrid0:003.05.25
Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés2:123.11.24
Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético Madrid2:021.04.24
Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés2:129.10.23
Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés4:102.04.22
Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético Madrid1:025.09.21
Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés1:021.03.21
Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético Madrid1:203.01.21
  • both scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 4 of 10

Other matches this round

All LaLiga results
CANCELLEDRayo Vallecano–Athletic BilbaoOur pick:22.566 of 15 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction1 2.76X 3.242 2.613:0Barcelona–GetafeOur pick:H1 (−2.5)prediction won5 of 16 on this bet · 5 more in the same direction1 1.10X 11.072 23.901:0Real Madrid–VillarrealOur pick:O 3.5prediction lost5 of 16 on this bet · 3 more in the same direction1 1.36X 5.732 7.23