23 Oct
Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga: AI prediction and betting pick
On 23 October, Deportivo Alavés host Málaga. The AI models' pick is Deportivo Alavés to win at 1.83: 11 of 16 models chose it.
- LaLiga, matchday 10 of 38
- +9°, cloudy
- Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
published UTC
AI models' pick: Deportivo Alavés to win
1.83AI models' pick · 11 of 16 for this bet, 5 for others
Our football predictions so far: 99 won · 74 lost · 6 void · +4.43 units All results
likely score
1:0 11%2:0 10%2:1 9%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 6 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
There is only one snapshot of the line so far — movement will appear with the next runs.
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for a Deportivo Alavés win. 2 more chose close bets in the same direction: Deportivo Alavés −1. 4 more went for at least one side failing to score. One more went for over 2.5 goals.
- 9 of 161our betodds 1.83ChatGPT
Gemini
GrokKimiDeepSeek Flash
GLM
Sonar
Dots3-NoteNemotron Super - 2 of 16H1 (−1)same directionodds 2.56MistralNemotron Ultra
- 4 of 16BTTS noodds 1.85ClaudeDeepSeekMiniMaxXiaomi MiMo
- 1 of 16O 2.5odds 2.05Qwen
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:54 UTC
Málaga sit 20th with four points after eight rounds, and on the road they barely create anything: 0.3 goals per away game, three defeats in four trips and not one outing without conceding. Deportivo Alavés have taken three wins from five at home, averaging two goals scored and one conceded, and they kept a clean sheet in 40% of those matches. The previous meetings back the hosts too: four wins, one draw and one defeat in six, with Alavés winning the last home encounter 2-1 in May 2023 in the Segunda.
Where we could be wrong
The hosts are hardly prolific themselves, though: 0.93 xG per game against 1.37 for their opponents, with two defeats and a draw in their last five. Málaga see more of the ball (52.2%), and if they sit deep and hold on until midway through the second half, they are capable of leaving Vitoria with a draw. Even so, we're backing Deportivo Alavés to win in LaLiga at odds of 1.83.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Deportivo Alavés| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.10 | Celta Vigo | A | 1:2xG 1.1–0.9 | L |
| 10.10 | Atlético Madrid | H | 1:2xG 1.3–2.0 | L |
| 19.09 | Athletic Bilbao | A | 0:0xG 0.1–1.6 | D |
| 15.09 | Valencia | H | 0:1xG 1.1–0.7 | L |
| 12.09 | Racing Santander | A | 1:2 | L |
| 06.09 | Osasuna | H | 5:2xG 1.2–1.6 | W |
Málaga| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.10 | Real Sociedad | H | 2:5xG 1.1–2.4 | L |
| 09.10 | Espanyol | H | 1:1xG 0.7–1.1 | D |
| 20.09 | Getafe | A | 0:1xG 0.5–0.9 | L |
| 17.09 | Villarreal | H | 1:3 | L |
| 13.09 | Celta Vigo | A | 1:1xG 0.4–1.9 | D |
| 06.09 | Levante | H | 0:0xG 1.5–0.8 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | LaLiga |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.5 / 1 | 0.5 / 1.6 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.3 / 1.3 | 0.8 / 1.6 | 1.5 |
| shots | 11.9 / 13.4 | 10.6 / 14.1 | 13.4 |
| shots on target | 4.3 / 4.5 | 2.6 / 5.5 | 4.7 |
| corners | 3.8 / 5.8 | 5.8 / 4.9 | 4.9 |
| fouls | 13.3 / 13.3 | 12.5 / 12.1 | 12.4 |
| yellow cards | 1.8 / 2.3 | 2.1 / 2.3 | 2.1 |
| matches over 2.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| both scored | 50% | 50% | |
| clean sheets | 38% | 13% | |
| failed to score | 25% | 50% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 2 / 1 | 0.3 / 2 | |
| average total | 3 | 2.3 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 60% | 25% | |
| both scored | 40% | 25% | |
- Deportivo Alavés shoot less often than the league average: 11.9 shots vs 13.4
- Málaga score less than the league average: 0.5 vs 1.5
- Málaga without a win in the last 5 league games
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Deportivo Alavés, away games only for Málaga
Head to head
4–1–1Deportivo Alavés wins · draws · Málaga wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga | 2:1 | 20.05.23 | Segunda División |
| Málaga vs Deportivo Alavés | 1:0 | 18.12.22 | Segunda División |
| Málaga vs Deportivo Alavés | 0:3 | 06.05.18 | |
| Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga | 1:0 | 21.12.17 | |
| Málaga vs Deportivo Alavés | 1:2 | 11.03.17 | |
| Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga | 1:1 | 16.10.16 |
- both scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 3 of 6
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sevilla | 8 | 4-2-2 | 13–12 | 14 | DWWLD |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés | 9 | 3-2-4 | 13–10 | 11 | LLDLL |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 9 | 2-5-2 | 10–7 | 11 | DDWDW |
| 19 | Valencia | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6–15 | 6 | LWLDD |
| 20 | Málaga | 9 | 0-4-5 | 6–18 | 4 | DLLDL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1500
- 16-3020
- 31-4532
- 46-6014
- 61-7522
- 76-9052
- 0-1511
- 16-3013
- 31-4513
- 46-6000
- 61-7501
- 76-9024
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
