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data updated 17.10 21:23

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Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés: AI prediction and betting pick

On 18 October, Celta Vigo host Deportivo Alavés. The AI models' pick is under 2.5 goals at 1.67: 9 of 15 models chose it.

published UTC

Celta Vigo
Deportivo Alavés

AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals

1.67

Now 1.73 · 1.67 when published

AI models' pick · 9 of 15 for this bet, 6 for others

Our football predictions so far: 86 won · 63 lost · 5 void · +3.46 units All results

Why this betAll odds

likely score

1:114%odds 5.97

1:0 10%0:0 10%2:1 9%

The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 9 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

Match odds

last line update 17.10 21:20

result12.21+0.09X3.32+0.0423.43−0.13
total 2.5O2.13−0.10U1.73 — matches our bet+0.06
both to scoreyes1.83−0.08no1.88+0.07
double chance1X1.32+0.04121.33+0.02X21.68−0.04
handicapH1 −13.37+0.14H2 +11.29−0.04

Over 2 days a Deportivo Alavés win shortened from 3.56 to 3.43 — money is coming in on the away side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Under 2.5: 1.67 → 1.73 since we publishedView

Since we published, our bet (under 2.5 goals) has drifted from 1.67 to 1.73: the market now rates it as less likely.

Over 2.52.23 → 2.13Under 2.51.67 → 1.73our bet
1.802.002.2016 Oct17 OctWe published · 1.67Over 2.5 2.13Under 2.5 1.73

Price changes

Price changes in the Total 2.5 market
WhenOver 2.5Under 2.5 · our bet
2.13−0.081.73+0.05
2.21−0.021.68+0.01
We published under 2.5 goals at 1.67
2.23opened1.67opened
29 snapshots · the prices changed 2 times

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models went for under 2.5 goals. 2 more went for a Celta Vigo win. The other 4 chose a bet each: double chance, 'both to score — no', both teams to score and a total-goals bet.

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 16.10 at 15:21 UTC

The recent head-to-heads between these two have been grinding, low-scoring affairs: 1-1 in September 2023, 1-1 in January 2025, 0-1 in November 2025. Deportivo Alavés travel with modest numbers — 0.7 goals scored and one conceded per away game, an average of 1.7 goals in their matches on the road, with over 2.5 goals landing in only one of three. Celta Vigo are sharper at home, 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded, but they have almost nobody left to lead the line: Borja Iglesias and his 18 goals from last season, Pablo Duran and Yones El-Abdellaoui are all unavailable, which is the entire attack.

Where we could be wrong

The caution is not guaranteed, though. In the spring the same sides served up a 3-4 in Vigo, and Deportivo Alavés are without Garcés and Ángel Pérez at the back, where a patched-up defence can leak goals even against a limited attack. We still lean the other way: our pick is under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.67 in LaLiga.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · how we calculate

Stats and form

Injuries and suspensions

snapshot 16.10 14:58
Celta Vigo
  • P. DuranFW · 5 goals in 2025/26calf injuryout
  • J. El AbdellaouiFW · 31 matches in 2025/26knee injuryout
  • B. IglesiasFW · 18 goals in 2025/26muscle injuryout
  • M. RomanMF · 29 matches in 2025/26knee injuryout
  • C. StarfeltDF · 31 matches in 2025/26muscle injuryout
Deportivo Alavés
  • F. GarcesDF · 10 matches in 2025/26suspendedout
  • A. PerezDF · 17 matches in 2025/26red cardout
  • M. Rodriguezankle injuryout

managers: Claudio Giráldez · Quique Sanchez Flores · main formations this season: 3-4-3 · 3-5-2

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first
Celta Vigo
Recent matches: Celta Vigo
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
15.10JuventusEuropa LeagueH1:2xG 1.1–1.9L
11.10ElcheA0:0xG 0.5–0.8D
19.09Racing SantanderH5:0xG 2.1–0.8W
16.09OmoniaEuropa LeagueA0:1xG 1.2–0.3L
13.09MálagaH1:1xG 1.9–0.4D
07.09GetafeA1:1xG 1.0–0.7D
Deportivo Alavés
Recent matches: Deportivo Alavés
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10.10Atlético MadridH1:2xG 1.3–2.0L
19.09Athletic BilbaoA0:0xG 0.1–1.6D
15.09ValenciaH0:1xG 1.1–0.7L
12.09Racing SantanderA1:2L
06.09OsasunaH5:2xG 1.2–1.6W
28.08VillarrealH1:0xG 0.8–1.4W

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstCelta VigoDeportivo AlavésLaLiga
goals1 / 0.81.5 / 11.5
xG0.9 / 1.21.3 / 1.31.5
shots9.9 / 12.511.9 / 13.413.4
shots on target3.3 / 3.84.3 / 4.54.7
corners3.1 / 4.83.8 / 5.84.9
fouls12 / 14.113.3 / 13.312.4
yellow cards1.8 / 2.41.8 / 2.32.1
matches over 2.525%50%
both scored38%50%
clean sheets50%38%
failed to score50%25%
home / away
goals1.8 / 1.30.7 / 1
average total31.7
matches over 2.550%33%
both scored50%67%
  • Celta Vigo score less than the league average: 1 vs 1.5
  • Deportivo Alavés shoot less often than the league average: 11.9 shots vs 13.4
  • Celta Vigo unbeaten in the last 5 league games
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Celta Vigo, away games only for Deportivo Alavés

Head to head

last 10

6–2–2Celta Vigo wins · draws · Deportivo Alavés wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés3:422.03.26
Deportivo Alavés vs Celta Vigo0:122.11.25
Deportivo Alavés vs Celta Vigo1:127.01.25
Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés2:116.08.24
Deportivo Alavés vs Celta Vigo3:027.04.24
Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés1:128.09.23
Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés4:007.05.22
Deportivo Alavés vs Celta Vigo1:227.11.21
Deportivo Alavés vs Celta Vigo1:304.04.21
Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés2:020.12.20
  • both scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 6 of 10

League table

League standings: LaLiga
#TeamPW-D-LGF–GAPtsForm
6Real Sociedad84-1-312–1513DWLWW
7Deportivo Alavés83-2-312–811WLLDL
8Deportivo La Coruña82-4-212–1110WDLDL
9Celta Vigo81-5-28–68DDDWD
10Athletic Bilbao62-2-27–68WWDD

excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right

Goals by minute

league season
Celta Vigo
  • 0-1510
  • 16-3003
  • 31-4530
  • 46-6011
  • 61-7511
  • 76-9021
Deportivo Alavés
  • 0-1500
  • 16-3020
  • 31-4532
  • 46-6013
  • 61-7521
  • 76-9042

in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals

Other matches this round

Full LaLiga fixtures
12:00Osasuna–Racing SantanderOur pick:U 2.52.226 of 15 AI models picked this bet1 1.99X 3.722 3.6316:30Málaga–Real SociedadOur pick:BTTS1.628 of 14 AI models picked this bet1 3.29X 3.522 2.1919:00Real Madrid–SevillaOur pick:H1 (−1.5)1.689 of 15 AI models picked this bet1 1.24X 6.622 11.33