FINISHED
Elche vs Celta Vigo 0:0: result and odds
Elche vs Celta Vigo finished 0:0. The AI models' pick was under 2.5 goals at 1.79, and it won.
- Referee: Javier Alberola Rojas
- LaLiga, matchday 8 of 38
- +25°, overcast
- Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals
1.79AI models' pick · 9 of 16 for this bet, 7 for others
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
- closing odds
- The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
- CLV
- How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
likely score
1:2 9%2:1 8%0:1 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 5 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 17 days a draw drifted from 3.19 to 3.23 — fewer bets on the draw.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Under 2.5: 1.79 → 1.83 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (under 2.5 goals) has drifted from 1.79 to 1.83: the market now rates it as less likely.
Price changes
| When | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 · our bet |
|---|---|---|
| 1.99 | 1.83−0.01 | |
| 1.99−0.01 | 1.84+0.01 | |
| 2.00−0.03 | 1.83+0.02 | |
| 2.03−0.04 | 1.81+0.02 | |
| 27 Sep – 10 Oct · no snapshots for 13 days | ||
| We published under 2.5 goals at 1.79 | ||
| 2.07opened | 1.79opened | |
How the match went
- 37'Yoel Lago YC
- 59'Javier Rueda García YC
- 59'on Abiel Alessio Osorio, off Tete Morente
- 60'on Borja Iglesias, off Pablo Durán Fernández
- 71'on Williot Swedberg, off Ferran Jutglà
- 71'on Couhaib Driouech, off Hugo Alvarez Antunez
- 71'on Sergio Carreira Vilarino, off Javi Galán
- 71'on Martim Neto, off Gonzalo Villar
- 71'on Lucas Cepeda, off Fernando Niño Rodríguez
- 81'Aleix Febas YC
- 83'on Hugo Burcio, off Aleix Febas
- 87'on Facundo Buonanotte, off Thomas Lemar
| Elche | stat | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| 0.84 | expected goals (xG) | 0.34 |
| 13 | shots | 7 |
| 2 | on target | 0 |
| 66% | possession | 34% |
| 5 | corners | 2 |
| 19 | fouls | 21 |
| 0 | saves | 2 |
| 1 | yellow cards | 3 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Elche- 1M. Dituro7.0
- 11Germán Valera6.1
- 3R. Revivo6.7
- 23Víctor Chust — highest feed rating in the match7.5
- 47J. Morcillo7.0
- 22Rubén Sánchez7.2
- 18T. Lemar7.1
- 8Marc Aguado6.6
- 12Gonzalo Villar6.6
- 14Fer Niño6.3
- 20Tete Morente6.8
- 6Bigas
- 26Matia Barzic Gutiérrez
- 10F. Buonanotteon 87'6.2
- 16Martim Netoon 71'6.9
- 21L. Cepedaon 71'6.5
- 19G. Diangana
- 17Josan
- 13Alejandro Iturbe
- 15K. Lomónaco
- 24A. Osorioon 59'6.5
- 30Alvaro Padilla
- 9E. Ponce
Celta Vigo- 13I. Radu7.1
- 3Marcos Alonso6.9
- 18Yoel Lago6.7
- 15Álvaro Núñez7.0
- 22Javi Galán6.8
- 14Aleix Febas6.2
- 6I. Moriba6.7
- 17Javi Rueda6.1
- 23Hugo Álvarez6.3
- 11Pablo Durán6.0
- 9Ferran Jutglà6.4
- 19W. Swedbergon 71'6.9
- 20Javi Rodríguez
- 7Borja Iglesiason 60'6.5
- 16Hugo González
- 4A. Faye
- 24C. Driouechon 71'6.3
- 21S. Cáceres
- 5Sergio Carreiraon 71'6.4
- 30H. Burcioon 83'6.5
- 1A. Bayındır
- 10Iago Aspas
- 25Iván Villar
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on under 2.5 goals — the bet won. 2 more each on both teams to score (lost) and on over 2.5 goals (lost). The other 3 chose a bet each: a Celta Vigo handicap, 'both to score — no' and a Celta Vigo win.
- 9 of 16U 2.5our betodds 1.79DeepSeek
GrokQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMiniMax
SonarXiaomi MiMoNemotron Ultrawon - 2 of 16BTTSodds 1.76ClaudeMistrallost
- 2 of 16O 2.5odds 2.07
GeminiKimilost - 1 of 16H2 (+1)odds 1.14
Dots3-Notewon - 1 of 16BTTS noodds 1.98ChatGPTwon
- 1 of 162odds 2.55Nemotron Superlost
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 09.10 at 11:21 UTC
Celta Vigo have managed one goal in three away trips and conceded the same number, keeping two clean sheets and failing to score twice themselves. That is where the appeal of under 2.5 goals starts. The prices barely separate these sides: 2.75 Elche, 3.25 the draw, 2.55 the visitors, with the home price trimmed from 2.88 over the past fortnight, and no clear attacking edge is expected either way. The previous meetings tell much the same story — between October 2021 and April 2023 four in a row finished 1-0.
Where we could be wrong
The doubt comes from Elche's home record. All three games at the Martínez Valero have brought three or more goals, at an average of 3.7 conceded per match, and both teams scored in two of the three. Elche sit 18th with 5 points after seven rounds, and in front of their own crowd they will push forward chasing a first win, while Celta's modest away figures come from just three games against attacks of a very different level. Our pick is under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.79.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Elche| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.09 | Espanyol | A | 3:1 | W |
| 15.09 | Real Madrid | H | 2:3 | L |
| 12.09 | Athletic Bilbao | A | 1:1 | D |
| 07.09 | Real Sociedad | H | 2:3 | L |
| 28.08 | Racing Santander | A | 2:3 | L |
Celta Vigo| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.09 | Racing Santander | H | 5:0 | W |
| 16.09 | OmoniaEuropa League | A | 0:1 | L |
| 13.09 | Málaga | H | 1:1 | D |
| 07.09 | Getafe | A | 1:1 | D |
| 03.09 | Real Sociedad | A | 0:0 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | LaLiga |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.4 / 2.1 | 1 / 0.8 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.2 / 1.8 | 0.9 / 1.2 | 1.5 |
| shots | 11.5 / 14.3 | 9.9 / 12.5 | 13.4 |
| shots on target | 4.6 / 4.1 | 3.3 / 3.8 | 4.7 |
| corners | 4.5 / 4 | 3.1 / 4.8 | 4.9 |
| fouls | 14.3 / 13.5 | 12 / 14.1 | 12.4 |
| yellow cards | 2.3 / 1.9 | 1.8 / 2.4 | 2.1 |
| matches over 2.5 | 63% | 25% | |
| both scored | 75% | 38% | |
| clean sheets | 13% | 50% | |
| failed to score | 25% | 50% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1 / 2.8 | 0.3 / 0.3 | |
| average total | 3.8 | 0.5 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 75% | 0% | |
| both scored | 50% | 25% | |
- Elche shoot less often than the league average: 11.5 shots vs 13.4
- Celta Vigo score less than the league average: 1 vs 1.5
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Elche, away games only for Celta Vigo
Head to head
2–1–5Elche wins · draws · Celta Vigo wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo vs Elche | 3:1 | 03.05.26 | |
| Elche vs Celta Vigo | 2:1 | 28.09.25 | |
| Celta Vigo vs Elche | 1:0 | 26.04.23 | |
| Elche vs Celta Vigo | 0:1 | 06.01.23 | |
| Celta Vigo vs Elche | 1:0 | 15.05.22 | |
| Elche vs Celta Vigo | 1:0 | 03.10.21 | |
| Celta Vigo vs Elche | 3:1 | 12.02.21 | |
| Elche vs Celta Vigo | 1:1 | 06.11.20 |
- both scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 3 of 8
