19 Oct
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano: AI prediction and betting pick
On 19 October, Getafe host Rayo Vallecano. The AI models' pick is under 2.5 goals at 1.50: two directions drew level, so we took the one closer to the market line.
- LaLiga, matchday 9 of 38
- +14°, overcast
- Estadio Coliseum, Getafe
published UTC
AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals
1.50AI models' pick · Two directions drew level; the one priced closer to the line was taken
Our football predictions so far: 86 won · 63 lost · 5 void · +3.46 units All results
likely score
0:0 12%1:0 10%0:1 10%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 9 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 2 days a Getafe win drifted from 2.89 to 2.93 — fewer bets on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementGetafe 2.89 → 2.93 over 2 days · 29 snapshotsView
This market has barely moved: Getafe 2.89 → 2.93, Draw 2.98 → 3.00, Rayo Vallecano 2.66 → 2.65.
Price changes
| When | Getafe | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.93+0.01 | 3.00 | 2.65−0.01 | |
| 2.92+0.01 | 3.00 | 2.66−0.01 | |
| 2.91+0.01 | 3.00 | 2.67 | |
| 2.90+0.01 | 3.00+0.02 | 2.67+0.01 | |
| 2.89opened | 2.98opened | 2.66opened |
AI prediction and analysis
The vote split evenly: 5 each for under 2.5 goals and for a draw. The other 5 chose other bets: both teams to score, 'both to score — no', a Rayo Vallecano handicap and a Rayo Vallecano win.
- 5 of 15U 2.5our betodds 1.50Claude
GrokKimi
GLM
Sonar - 5 of 15Xodds 3.00DeepSeek
GeminiQwenMiniMaxXiaomi MiMo - 2 of 15BTTSodds 2.04Mistral
Dots3-Note - 1 of 15BTTS noodds 1.71ChatGPT
- 1 of 15DNB 2odds 1.84DeepSeek Flash
- 1 of 152odds 2.67Nemotron Super
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 16.10 at 15:21 UTC
A low-scoring, grinding game is the most natural continuation for this pairing. Getafe have played four matches at home at an average of 1.5 goals, none of them reached three goals, the hosts conceded 0.5 per game and kept two clean sheets. At the other end there is almost nothing: 0.8 xG and 34.8% possession across six official matches this season. The previous meetings tell the same story — six draws in the last ten, and the last six derbies have not produced more than two goals, including a 1-1 in January and two goalless draws in 2024. The market leans the same way, rating under 2.5 goals at around 64%.
Where we could be wrong
What gives pause is Rayo Vallecano's away profile: both teams have scored in each of their four trips, and three or more goals arrived in three of those four. Getafe's Conference League schedule adds doubt too — after a European week Bordalas may shuffle the side, and games like that tend to open up. Even so, our pick is under 2.5 goals at 1.50.
- Two directions drew the same number of AI models: the bet was taken from the one priced closer to the line.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Getafe| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10 | Universitatea CraiovaConference League | A | 1:1xG 1.4–0.6 | D |
| 10.10 | Barcelona | A | 0:3xG 0.1–1.9 | L |
| 20.09 | Málaga | H | 1:0xG 0.9–0.5 | W |
| 17.09 | Real Betis | A | 0:1 | L |
| 13.09 | Deportivo La Coruña | H | 1:1 | D |
| 07.09 | Celta Vigo | H | 1:1xG 0.7–1.0 | D |
Rayo Vallecano| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Athletic Bilbao | H | 0:0xG 0.0–0.1 | D |
| 19.09 | Osasuna | A | 1:1xG 1.0–0.5 | D |
| 15.09 | Espanyol | H | 2:1xG 1.5–1.5 | W |
| 12.09 | Real Madrid | A | 1:4 | L |
| 05.09 | Racing Santander | H | 3:2xG 1.6–0.5 | W |
| 31.08 | Barcelona | A | 2:5xG 1.1–2.8 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | LaLiga |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 0.5 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 2.3 | 1.5 |
| xG | 0.6 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 1.8 | 1.5 |
| shots | 10.8 / 14.5 | 13.4 / 16.6 | 13.4 |
| shots on target | 2.5 / 4.9 | 4.6 / 5.6 | 4.7 |
| corners | 3.8 / 5.8 | 5.3 / 6.1 | 4.9 |
| fouls | 14.3 / 13.3 | 13.4 / 13.1 | 12.4 |
| yellow cards | 2.9 / 2.4 | 2.4 / 1.7 | 2.1 |
| matches over 2.5 | 25% | 71% | |
| both scored | 25% | 100% | |
| clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1 / 0.5 | 1.3 / 3 | |
| average total | 1.5 | 4.3 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 0% | 75% | |
| both scored | 50% | 100% | |
- Getafe score less than the league average: 0.5 vs 1.5
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Getafe, away games only for Rayo Vallecano
Head to head
0–6–4Getafe wins · draws · Rayo Vallecano wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano | 0:2 | 03.05.26 | |
| Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe | 1:1 | 02.01.26 | |
| Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe | 1:0 | 02.05.25 | |
| Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano | 0:0 | 24.08.24 | |
| Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe | 0:0 | 13.04.24 | |
| Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano | 0:2 | 02.01.24 | |
| Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano | 1:1 | 12.02.23 | |
| Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe | 0:0 | 14.10.22 | |
| Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano | 0:0 | 08.05.22 | |
| Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe | 3:0 | 18.09.21 |
- both scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 1 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2-2-4 | 11–11 | 8 | DWLLD |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2-2-3 | 11–16 | 8 | WLWD |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2-2-4 | 4–10 | 8 | DDLWL |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2-2-4 | 13–23 | 8 | LWLLD |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1501
- 16-3011
- 31-4502
- 46-6001
- 61-7512
- 76-9023
- 0-1532
- 16-3025
- 31-4511
- 46-6062
- 61-7501
- 76-9004
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
