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data updated 14.10 03:20

FINISHED

Málaga vs Espanyol 1:1: result and odds

Málaga vs Espanyol finished 1:1. The AI models' pick was Espanyol to win at 2.66, and it lost.

published · updated UTC

Málaga
Espanyol

AI models' pick: Espanyol to win

2.66

AI models' pick · 5 of 16 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction

Split panel

Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results

lost−1.00 unitsclosing odds2.54CLV+5%
what these numbers mean
won / lost
The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
closing odds
The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
CLV
How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
Why this betAll odds

likely score

1:113%odds 5.86 — this score came in

2:1 9%1:2 8%0:0 6%

The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 6 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

What the odds were

line before kick-off, last update 08.10 12:52

result12.73+0.33X3.18−0.0422.66 — matches our bet−0.30
total 2.5taken 27.09 13:07O2.08U1.80
both to scoretaken 27.09 13:07yes1.77no1.98
double chancetaken 27.09 13:071X1.39121.34X21.55
handicaptaken 27.09 13:07H1 −0.52.39H2 +0.51.59

Over 14 days an Espanyol win shortened from 2.96 to 2.66 — money is coming in on the away side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Espanyol: 2.66 → 2.66 since we published · Espanyol became the favourite in 1X2View

Espanyol became the favourite on 8 Oct: their odds went from 2.96 to 2.66, while Málaga went from 2.40 to 2.73.

Málaga2.40 → 2.73Draw3.22 → 3.18Espanyol2.96 → 2.66our bet
2.402.602.803.003.2011 daysno data24 Sep25 Sep26 Sep27 Sep8 OctWe published · 2.66Espanyol became the favouriteDraw 3.18Málaga 2.73Espanyol 2.66

Price changes

Price changes in the 1X2 market
WhenMálagaDrawEspanyol · our bet
We published an Espanyol win at 2.66
2.73+0.333.18−0.042.66−0.30
27 Sep – 8 Oct · no snapshots for 11 days
2.40opened3.22opened2.96opened
53 snapshots · the prices changed 1 time

How the match went

half-time 0:1

match report · 10.10 12:00

Espanyol led through Bryan Zaragoza's goal on 13 minutes, set up by Francisco Javier Hernandez Coarasa, and that score held to half-time at 0-1. Málaga levelled deep into stoppage time, Adrian Nino converting Rafael Garrido Hierro's pass for the 1-1 final score. Our bet was on Espanyol to win at odds of 2.66, and it went down. Espanyol actually had the better underlying numbers: 1.14 expected goals against Málaga's 0.77, six saves to two, and nine shots to Málaga's 15 - though Málaga had seven shots on target to Espanyol's four and held 58% of the ball against 42%. Before kick-off the home win was offered at 2.73, the draw at 3.18 and an Espanyol win went off at 2.66, with this exact 1-1 scoreline quoted at 5.86.

  1. 13'EspanyolBryan Zaragoza (Francisco Javier Hernandez Coarasa)0:1
  2. 24'EspanyolFrancisco Javier Hernandez Coarasa YC
  3. 28'EspanyolBryan Zaragoza YC
  4. 28'MálagaCarlos Puga YC
  5. 41'MálagaCarlos Ruiz Rubio YC
  6. 57'Espanyolon Urko Gonzalez, off Francisco Javier Hernandez Coarasa
  7. 60'EspanyolOmar El Hilali YC
  8. 62'Málagaon Adam Aznou, off Carlos Puga
  9. 62'Málagaon Adrian Nino, off Rafael Rodríguez Ruiz
  10. 62'Málagaon Carlos Dotor, off Joaquín Muñoz
  11. 66'MálagaCarlos Dotor YC
  12. 73'Espanyolon Álex Calatrava Torrado, off Bryan Zaragoza
  13. 74'Málagaon Izan Merino, off Fernando Calero
  14. 82'Espanyolon Roger Hinojo, off Roberto Fernández Jaén
  15. 82'Espanyolon Pere Milla, off Eduardo Expósito Jaén
  16. 82'Espanyolon Marcos Fernández, off Tyrhys Dolan
  17. 82'Málagaon Haitam Abaida, off Pablo Martínez Andrés
  18. 84'EspanyolClemens Riedel YC
  19. 87'EspanyolRoger Hinojo YC
  20. 89'MálagaAdam Aznou YC
  21. 90+3'MálagaAdrian Nino (Rafael Garrido Hierro)1:1
Match stats: Málaga vs Espanyol
MálagastatEspanyol
0.77expected goals (xG)1.14
15shots9
7on target4
58%possession42%
8corners2
10fouls15
2saves6
4yellow cards5
what these numbers mean
expected goals (xG)
How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
feed rating
The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.

Starting line-ups

Málaga

formation 4-1-4-1 · manager Funes

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1Alfonso Herrero6.6
  • 31Rafita7.1
  • 15Ángel Recio7.0
  • 20Fernando Calero6.5
  • 3Puga6.2
  • 14Rafa Rodríguez6.7
  • 11Joaquín Muñoz6.3
  • 18Pablo Martínez7.0
  • 22Dani Lorenzo6.7
  • 10David Larrubia6.8
  • 9Chupe6.4
substitutes
  • 7H. Abaidaon 82'6.4
  • 23Izan Merinoon 74'6.3
  • 8Carlos Dotoron 62'6.5
  • 13Carlos López
  • 17Eneko Jauregi
  • 4Einar Galilea
  • 6Ramón Enríquez
  • 21Adrián Niño Heredia — highest feed rating in the matchon 62'8.2
  • 5Álex Pastor
  • 39Adam Aznou Ben Cheikhon 62'5.8
  • 25Juan Berrocal
  • 30Andrés Céspedes
Espanyol

formation 4-2-3-1 · manager Manolo González

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1Ángel Fortuño7.5
  • 3Q. Hartman6.7
  • 6L. Cabrera6.8
  • 5C. Riedel7.0
  • 23O. El Hilali6.5
  • 10Pol Lozano6.5
  • 8Edu Expósito6.7
  • 15Bryan Zaragoza8.2
  • 28Javier Hernandez6.9
  • 24T. Dolan6.3
  • 9Roberto Fernández6.1
substitutes
  • 26Rafel Bauzà
  • 22Álex Calatravaon 73'6.4
  • 13M. Dmitrović
  • 16V. Drkušić
  • 18Marcos Fernándezon 82'6.4
  • 4Urko Gonzálezon 57'6.0
  • 21Roger Hinojoon 82'6.2
  • 11Pere Millaon 82'6.6
  • 14Unai Núñez
  • 7Javi Puado
  • 31Llorenç Serred
  • 20Gabriel Moscardo

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models bet on an Espanyol win — the bet lost. One more chose a close bet in the same direction: Espanyol not losing. 5 more bet on under 2.5 goals — the bet won. The other 5 chose other bets: both teams to score and a Málaga win.

  • 5 of 16U 2.5odds 1.80ChatGPTGeminiQwenDeepSeek FlashMiniMaxwon
  • 5 of 162our betodds 2.66ClaudeGrokXiaomi MiMoNemotron SuperNemotron Ultralost
  • 3 of 16BTTSodds 1.77DeepSeekMistralDots3-Notewon
  • 2 of 161odds 2.73KimiGLMlost
  • 1 of 16X2same directionodds 1.55Sonarwon

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 09.10 at 11:21 UTC

Málaga sit bottom of LaLiga with three points from seven matches, and in their last five games they have scored two goals and conceded nine. At home they average 0.7 goals scored, and in a third of their home games they have failed to score at all. Espanyol look tidier on the road: 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match, and not a single away trip without a goal of their own. The prices have shifted towards the visitors over the past fortnight, from 2.96 to 2.66, while the hosts have drifted from 2.40 to 2.73. Our pick is Espanyol to win at 2.66.

Where we could be wrong

The doubt is that Espanyol have lost two in a row themselves and sit only 15th, so there is no reason to expect them to control things with any authority. Málaga's home matches average 2 goals, and a cagey game like that, with no space to play in, often ends in a draw.

  • 5 of 16 AI models back this bet and 1 more chose a close bet in the same direction; more than half chose something else.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first
Málaga
Recent matches: Málaga
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20.09GetafeA0:1L
17.09VillarrealH1:3L
13.09Celta VigoA1:1D
06.09LevanteH0:0D
30.08Real MadridA0:4L
Espanyol
Recent matches: Espanyol
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
18.09ElcheH1:3L
15.09Rayo VallecanoA1:2L
12.09OsasunaA2:0W
06.09SevillaH1:1D
29.08Real SociedadA1:2L

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstMálagaEspanyolLaLiga
goals0.5 / 1.61.4 / 1.41.5
xG0.8 / 1.61.2 / 1.21.5
shots10.6 / 14.113 / 12.413.4
shots on target2.6 / 5.53.9 / 54.7
corners5.8 / 4.92.1 / 4.64.9
fouls12.5 / 12.116.9 / 10.612.4
yellow cards2.1 / 2.33.1 / 2.42.1
matches over 2.525%63%
both scored50%75%
clean sheets13%25%
failed to score50%0%
home / away
goals0.8 / 1.31.3 / 1.3
average total22.5
matches over 2.525%50%
both scored75%75%
  • Málaga score less than the league average: 0.5 vs 1.5
  • Málaga without a win in the last 5 league games
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Málaga, away games only for Espanyol

Head to head

last 1

0–0–1Málaga wins · draws · Espanyol wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Espanyol vs Málaga3:002.09.20club friendly

Other matches this round

All LaLiga results
CANCELLEDRayo Vallecano–Athletic BilbaoOur pick:22.566 of 15 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction1 2.76X 3.242 2.611:2Deportivo Alavés–Atlético MadridOur pick:2prediction won7 of 16 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction1 4.38X 3.732 1.813:0Barcelona–GetafeOur pick:H1 (−2.5)prediction won5 of 16 on this bet · 5 more in the same direction1 1.10X 11.072 23.90