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data updated 14.10 03:20

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Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao: AI prediction and betting pick

On 10 October, Rayo Vallecano host Athletic Bilbao. The AI models' pick is Athletic Bilbao to win at 2.56: 6 of 15 models chose it, 1 more went in the same direction.

published · updated UTC

Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Bilbao

AI models' pick: Athletic Bilbao to win

2.56

Now 2.61 · 2.56 when published

AI models' pick · 6 of 15 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction

Split panel

Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results

void0.00 units
what these numbers mean
void
The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown. Here the score landed exactly on the bet's line — the bookmaker returns the stake in full, so it counts neither as profit nor as loss.
Why this betAll odds

Match odds

last line update 10.10 11:08

result12.76−0.23X3.24−0.1122.61 — matches our bet+0.31
total 2.5O2.01+0.10U1.82−0.13
both to scoreyes1.73+0.05no2.02−0.09
double chance1X1.49−0.11121.32+0.01X21.43+0.05
handicapH1 +11.20−0.08H2 −14.27+0.74

Over 16 days an Athletic Bilbao win drifted from 2.30 to 2.61 — fewer bets on the away side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Athletic Bilbao: 2.56 → 2.61 since we publishedView

Since we published, our bet (an Athletic Bilbao win) has drifted from 2.56 to 2.61: the market now rates it as less likely.

Rayo Vallecano2.99 → 2.76Draw3.35 → 3.24Athletic Bilbao2.30 → 2.61our bet
2.252.502.753.003.2511 daysno data2 daysno data24 Sep25 Sep26 Sep27 Sep8 Oct10 OctWe published · 2.56Draw 3.24Rayo Vallecano 2.76Athletic Bilbao 2.61

Price changes

Price changes in the 1X2 market
WhenRayo VallecanoDrawAthletic Bilbao · our bet
2.76+0.053.24−0.072.61+0.05
8 Oct – 10 Oct · no snapshots for 2 days
We published an Athletic Bilbao win at 2.56
2.71−0.283.31−0.042.56+0.26
27 Sep – 8 Oct · no snapshots for 11 days
2.99opened3.35opened2.30opened
54 snapshots · the prices changed 2 times

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models went for an Athletic Bilbao win. One more chose a close bet in the same direction: Athletic Bilbao not losing. 3 more each for both teams to score and for under 2.5 goals. The other 2 chose a bet each: double chance and a draw.

  • 6 of 152our betodds 2.56ChatGPTDeepSeekGeminiGrokGLMMistralvoid
  • 3 of 15BTTSodds 1.68KimiDots3-NoteNemotron Supervoid
  • 3 of 15U 2.5odds 1.95ClaudeDeepSeek FlashMiniMaxvoid
  • 1 of 15X2same directionodds 1.38Xiaomi MiMovoid
  • 1 of 151Xodds 1.60Qwenvoid
  • 1 of 15Xodds 3.31Sonarvoid

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 09.10 at 13:11 UTC

Athletic Bilbao have won seven of the last ten meetings with Rayo Vallecano and drawn two. Just one of those ten went the way of Rayo; everything else was either a Basque win or a share of the points, like the 1-1 in Madrid in February.

On the road Athletic give up very little: one goal conceded per game on average, and in half their trips they did not concede at all. Rayo have yet to keep a clean sheet at home in LaLiga, with both teams scoring in all three of their home matches, and over the last five rounds the Madrid side have nine goals scored and 13 against.

Where we could be wrong

The counter-argument is real. The odds have drifted towards the hosts for a fortnight, the away price rising from 2.3 to 2.56, and Athletic offer little going forward: one goal per away match, and no goal at all in half of those trips. Rayo play open football at home, where their games average 3.3 goals, and that tempo can pull the Basques out of the slow, cagey script that suits them. We still side with the defensive record and the head-to-head story, so we're backing Athletic Bilbao to win at 2.56.

  • 6 of 15 AI models back this bet and 1 more chose a close bet in the same direction: it is the most common answer, but more than half chose something else.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first
Rayo Vallecano
Recent matches: Rayo Vallecano
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19.09OsasunaA1:1D
15.09EspanyolH2:1W
12.09Real MadridA1:4L
05.09Racing SantanderH3:2W
31.08BarcelonaA2:5L
Athletic Bilbao
Recent matches: Athletic Bilbao
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
02.10Real Sociedadclub friendlyA1:0W
19.09Deportivo AlavésH0:0D
12.09ElcheH1:1D
05.09Atlético MadridH3:0W
30.08Celta VigoA2:0W

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstRayo VallecanoAthletic BilbaoLaLiga
goals1.6 / 2.31.2 / 11.5
xG1.3 / 1.81.6 / 1.11.5
shots13.4 / 16.615.7 / 9.513.4
shots on target4.6 / 5.64.7 / 3.74.7
corners5.3 / 6.16.2 / 4.84.9
fouls13.4 / 13.111.2 / 11.312.4
yellow cards2.4 / 1.72 / 1.72.1
matches over 2.571%33%
both scored100%33%
clean sheets0%50%
failed to score0%33%
home / away
goals2 / 1.31 / 1
average total3.32
matches over 2.567%0%
both scored100%0%
  • Athletic Bilbao score less than the league average: 1.2 vs 1.5
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Rayo Vallecano, away games only for Athletic Bilbao

Head to head

last 10

1–2–7Rayo Vallecano wins · draws · Athletic Bilbao wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao1:128.02.26
Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano1:025.08.25
Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano3:113.04.25
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao1:201.12.24
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao0:125.05.24
Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano4:002.12.23
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao0:005.03.23
Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano3:217.09.22
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao0:123.01.22
Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano1:221.09.21
  • both scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 5 of 10

Other matches this round

Full LaLiga fixtures
1:2Deportivo Alavés–Atlético MadridOur pick:2prediction won7 of 16 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction1 4.38X 3.732 1.813:0Barcelona–GetafeOur pick:H1 (−2.5)prediction won5 of 16 on this bet · 5 more in the same direction1 1.10X 11.072 23.901:0Real Madrid–VillarrealOur pick:O 3.5prediction lost5 of 16 on this bet · 3 more in the same direction1 1.36X 5.732 7.23