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data updated 14.10 03:20

FINISHED

Real Madrid vs Villarreal 1:0: result and odds

Real Madrid vs Villarreal finished 1:0. The AI models' pick was over 3.5 goals at 1.71, and it lost.

published · updated UTC

Real Madrid
Villarreal

AI models' pick: Over 3.5 goals

1.71

AI models' pick · 5 of 16 on this bet · 3 more in the same direction

Split panel

Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results

lost−1.00 units
what these numbers mean
won / lost
The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
Why this betAll odds

likely score

1:112%odds 12.96

2:1 9%1:2 8%2:2 7%

The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 6 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

What the odds were

line before kick-off, last update 10.10 18:15

result11.36+0.11X5.73−0.7627.23−2.01
total 3.5O1.71 — matches our betU2.17−0.02
both to scoreyes1.42−0.14no2.67+0.35
double chance1X1.10+0.04121.13+0.02X23.13−0.77
handicapH1 −22.49+0.45H2 +21.54−0.26

Over 17 days a Villarreal win shortened from 9.24 to 7.23 — money is coming in on the away side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Over 3.5: 1.71 → 1.71 since we publishedView

This market has barely moved: Over 3.5 1.71 → 1.71, Under 3.5 2.19 → 2.17.

Over 3.51.71 → 1.71our betUnder 3.52.19 → 2.17
1.701.801.902.002.102.2013 daysno data24 Sep25 Sep26 Sep27 Sep10 OctWe published · 1.71Under 3.5 2.17Over 3.5 1.71

Price changes

Price changes in the Total 3.5 market
WhenOver 3.5 · our betUnder 3.5
1.71−0.012.17+0.02
1.72+0.012.15−0.04
27 Sep – 10 Oct · no snapshots for 13 days
We published over 3.5 goals at 1.71
1.71opened2.19opened
59 snapshots · the prices changed 2 times

How the match went

half-time 0:0

match report · 10.10 22:00

It was goalless at half-time. Real Madrid broke the deadlock through Yan Diomande on 62 minutes, converting a Federico Valverde pass. Ten minutes later Vinícius had a goal ruled out by VAR and was sent off, leaving Real Madrid to close out a 1-0 win with ten men. Villarreal shaded the shot count, 15 to 11. They also held more of the ball, 54% to 46%. Villarreal's xG finished at 0.64, well short of Real Madrid's 0.99, the total that delivered the only goal. Our over 3.5 goals pick at 1.71 went down, as the match finished with just one goal in total, well under that mark. Before kick-off the market had Real Madrid favourites at 1.36 and Villarreal out at 7.23, with the exact 1-0 finish quoted far higher than either price.

  1. 10'VillarrealRenato Veiga YC
  2. 19'Real MadridJude Bellingham YC
  3. 45'Real Madridon Marc Cucurella, off Álvaro Fernández Carreras
  4. 52'Real Madridon Vinícius, off Trent Alexander-Arnold
  5. 56'Villarrealon Nathan-Dylan Saliba, off Santi Comesaña
  6. 56'Villarrealon Carlos Romero, off Juan Foyth
  7. 62'Real MadridYan Diomande (Federico Valverde)1:0
  8. 63'Real MadridVAR check · Yan Diomande
  9. 67'Villarrealon Gerard Moreno, off Ilias Akhomach Chakkour
  10. 67'Villarrealon Georges Mikautadze, off Sergi Cardona Bermúdez
  11. 68'Real MadridJosé Mário dos Santos Mourinho Félix YC
  12. 72'Real Madridgoal disallowed (VAR) · Vinícius
  13. 72'Real MadridVinícius RC
  14. 77'Real Madridon Eduardo Camavinga, off Arda Güler
  15. 81'Real MadridIbrahima Konaté YC
  16. 83'Real MadridAntonio Rüdiger YC
  17. 84'VillarrealPau Navarro YC
  18. 86'Real Madridon Denzel Dumfries, off Yan Diomande
  19. 86'Villarrealon Nizar El Jmili, off Alberto Moleiro
  20. 87'Real MadridAurelien Tchouameni YC
  21. 90+4'Real MadridKylian Mbappé YC
Match stats: Real Madrid vs Villarreal
Real MadridstatVillarreal
0.99expected goals (xG)0.64
11shots15
4on target4
46%possession54%
9corners3
8fouls13
4saves3
5yellow cards2
1red cards0
what these numbers mean
expected goals (xG)
How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
feed rating
The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.

Starting line-ups

Real Madrid

formation 4-2-3-1 · manager José Mourinho

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1T. Courtois7.7
  • 18Álvaro Fernández7.2
  • 22A. Rüdiger6.8
  • 16I. Konaté6.7
  • 12T. Alexander-Arnold6.7
  • 14A. Tchouaméni6.5
  • 8F. Valverde7.7
  • 25Y. Diomande — highest feed rating in the match8.2
  • 5J. Bellingham6.5
  • 15A. Güler6.8
  • 10Kylian Mbappé6.3
substitutes
  • 6E. Camavingaon 77'6.6
  • 17Marc Cucurellaon 45'6.6
  • 24D. Dumfrieson 86'6.1
  • 19Carlos Espí
  • 13A. Lunin
  • 26Sergio Mestre
  • 9Endrick
  • 20Bernardo Silva
  • 7Vinícius Júnioron 52'5.9
  • 27Thiago Pitarch
  • 21Brahim Díaz
Villarreal

formation 4-2-3-1 · manager Iñigo Pérez

starting XIfeed rating
  • 25P. Gulácsi6.5
  • 23Sergi Cardona6.6
  • 12Renato Veiga6.2
  • 6Pau Navarro6.3
  • 3A. Freeman7.3
  • 18P. Gueye6.8
  • 8J. Foyth6.8
  • 10Alberto Moleiro5.9
  • 14Santi Comesaña6.5
  • 11Ilias Akhomach6.4
  • 22Ayoze Pérez6.1
substitutes
  • 15S. Mouriño
  • 7Gerard Morenoon 67'6.3
  • 9G. Mikautadzeon 67'6.7
  • 16C. Macia
  • 28Joselillo Gaitán
  • 27N. El Jmilion 86'6.2
  • 5A. Diatta
  • 2Logan Costa
  • 21T. Oluwaseyi
  • 1Luíz Júnior
  • 20Carlos Romeroon 56'6.7
  • 24N. Salibaon 56'7.0

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models bet on over 3.5 goals — the bet lost. 3 more chose close bets in the same direction: over 2.5 goals and over 3 goals. 3 more each on both teams to score (lost) and on Real Madrid −1.5 (lost). The other 2 chose a bet each: a Real Madrid handicap and a Real Madrid win.

  • 5 of 16O 3.5our betodds 1.71ClaudeGeminiGrokKimiQwenlost
  • 3 of 16BTTSodds 1.56ChatGPTGLMXiaomi MiMolost
  • 3 of 16H1 (−1.5)odds 1.66DeepSeekDeepSeek FlashMiniMaxlost
  • 2 of 16O 2.5same directionodds 1.24MistralNemotron Ultralost
  • 1 of 16H1 (−1)odds 1.32Sonarvoid
  • 1 of 161odds 1.33Nemotron Superwon
  • 1 of 16O 3same directionodds 1.35Dots3-Notelost

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 09.10 at 11:21 UTC

The last two meetings finished 2-0 and 0-2, Real Madrid getting through both without any shootout, and the market rates over 3.5 goals at just 56%. At home, though, Madrid are running at 4.7 goals per game, and all three fixtures at the Bernabéu have gone over 2.5. Villarreal have yet to keep a clean sheet in four away trips, they ship 1.8 goals a game on the road, and both teams have scored in three of those four. Form points the same way: Real have 12 goals scored and six conceded in their last five, Villarreal nine and eight. This ground produced a 3-1 in October 2025, and in May 2024 the two served up a 4-4.

Where we could be wrong

The caution lies elsewhere. One away trip in four passes without a Villarreal goal, and the January game followed exactly that script. Should Real get their noses in front by the middle of the second half, they can comfortably drop the tempo, and the fourth goal may never arrive. Even so, we're backing over 3.5 goals.

  • 5 of 16 AI models back this bet and 3 more chose a close bet in the same direction: it is the most common answer, but the other half chose something else.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first
Real Madrid
Recent matches: Real Madrid
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20.09Atlético MadridA1:2L
15.09ElcheA3:2W
12.09Rayo VallecanoH4:1W
08.09InterChampions LeagueH2:1W
04.09Real BetisA0:1L
Villarreal
Recent matches: Villarreal
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20.09LevanteH3:1W
17.09MálagaA3:1W
14.09Real BetisH1:2L
08.09Borussia DortmundChampions LeagueA2:3L
05.09Deportivo La CoruñaH2:3L

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstReal MadridVillarrealLaLiga
goals2.4 / 11.6 / 1.61.5
xG2.5 / 12.1 / 1.31.5
shots17.9 / 1315.9 / 12.613.4
shots on target7.1 / 4.46.3 / 3.84.7
corners7.1 / 46.8 / 4.44.9
fouls8.4 / 14.111 / 12.312.4
yellow cards2.3 / 2.81.6 / 22.1
matches over 2.575%75%
both scored63%75%
clean sheets25%0%
failed to score13%25%
home / away
goals3.3 / 0.51.4 / 1.4
average total3.82.8
matches over 2.575%60%
both scored50%60%
  • Real Madrid score more than the league average: 2.4 vs 1.5
  • Villarreal shoot more often than the league average: 15.9 shots vs 13.4
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Real Madrid, away games only for Villarreal

Head to head

last 10

6–2–2Real Madrid wins · draws · Villarreal wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Villarreal vs Real Madrid0:224.01.26
Real Madrid vs Villarreal3:104.10.25
Villarreal vs Real Madrid1:215.03.25
Real Madrid vs Villarreal2:005.10.24
Villarreal vs Real Madrid4:419.05.24
Real Madrid vs Villarreal4:117.12.23
Real Madrid vs Villarreal2:308.04.23
Villarreal vs Real Madrid2:319.01.23Copa del Rey
Villarreal vs Real Madrid2:107.01.23
Villarreal vs Real Madrid0:012.02.22
  • both scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 7 of 10

Other matches this round

All LaLiga results
3:0Barcelona–GetafeOur pick:H1 (−2.5)prediction won5 of 16 on this bet · 5 more in the same direction1 1.10X 11.072 23.901:2Deportivo Alavés–Atlético MadridOur pick:2prediction won7 of 16 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction1 4.38X 3.732 1.81CANCELLEDRayo Vallecano–Athletic BilbaoOur pick:22.566 of 15 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction1 2.76X 3.242 2.61