24 Oct
Valencia vs Villarreal: AI prediction and betting pick
On 24 October, Valencia host Villarreal. The AI models' pick is Villarreal to win at 2.11: 11 of 16 models chose it, 1 more went in the same direction.
- LaLiga, matchday 10 of 38
- +23°, overcast
- Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
published UTC
AI models' pick: Villarreal to win
2.11AI models' pick · 11 of 16 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 99 won · 74 lost · 6 void · +4.43 units All results
likely score
1:2 9%0:1 8%0:2 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 6 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
There is only one snapshot of the line so far — movement will appear with the next runs.
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for a Villarreal win. 2 more chose close bets in the same direction: Villarreal not losing and Villarreal draw no bet. 2 more each for both teams to score and for over 2.5 goals.
- 10 of 162our betodds 2.11ChatGPTDeepSeek
Gemini
GrokKimiQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMiniMaxXiaomi MiMo - 1 of 16X2same directionodds 1.33
Sonar - 1 of 16DNB 2same directionodds 1.58Claude
- 2 of 16BTTSodds 1.60Mistral
Dots3-Note - 2 of 16O 2.5odds 1.73Nemotron SuperNemotron Ultra
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:54 UTC
The table tells the story here. Valencia sit 19th with six points from nine rounds, while Villarreal are 11th on nine. At home Valencia average 0.5 goals scored and 2.3 conceded, and they have failed to score in three of their four home games; across the season it reads five goals for and 11 against. Villarreal have 10 scored and six conceded, with 17 shots a game and the bulk of the possession, and on the road the numbers sit at 1.4 goals at each end. The prices lean the same way, with the visitors rated at 45% and the hosts at 29%. The last 10 meetings have brought Valencia two wins, three draws and five defeats, and exactly a year ago, in October 2025, Villarreal left Mestalla with a 2-0 win.
Where we could be wrong
Draws do keep turning up in this fixture, though: 1-1 in February 2025 and 1-1 in Valencia in August 2024. Villarreal are juggling the Champions League as well, so the travelling line-up may not be their strongest, and they have yet to keep a clean sheet away from home this season. We are still backing Villarreal to win at 2.11.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Valencia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10 | Athletic Bilbao | H | 0:0xG 1.5–0.7 | D |
| 11.10 | Racing Santander | A | 2:2xG 1.7–1.3 | D |
| 20.09 | Real Sociedad | H | 2:3xG 1.6–2.6 | L |
| 15.09 | Deportivo Alavés | A | 1:0xG 0.7–1.1 | W |
| 11.09 | Sevilla | A | 0:1 | L |
| 06.09 | Barcelona | H | 0:5xG 0.7–4.1 | L |
Villarreal| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10 | Elche | H | 0:0xG 2.2–0.3 | D |
| 13.10 | NapoliChampions League | H | 3:1xG 1.2–1.7 | W |
| 10.10 | Real Madrid | A | 0:1xG 0.6–1.4 | L |
| 20.09 | Levante | H | 3:1xG 4.3–0.5 | W |
| 17.09 | Málaga | A | 3:1 | W |
| 14.09 | Real Betis | H | 1:2xG 1.9–3.5 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | LaLiga |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 0.8 / 1.9 | 1.6 / 1.6 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1 / 1.6 | 2.1 / 1.3 | 1.5 |
| shots | 10.5 / 15.9 | 15.9 / 12.6 | 13.4 |
| shots on target | 2.6 / 5.5 | 6.3 / 3.8 | 4.7 |
| corners | 4.3 / 4.3 | 6.8 / 4.4 | 4.9 |
| fouls | 10.5 / 11.3 | 11 / 12.3 | 12.4 |
| yellow cards | 2.1 / 1.9 | 1.6 / 2 | 2.1 |
| matches over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| both scored | 38% | 75% | |
| clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 0.5 / 2.3 | 1.4 / 1.4 | |
| average total | 2.8 | 2.8 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| both scored | 25% | 60% | |
- Valencia score less than the league average: 0.8 vs 1.5
- Villarreal shoot more often than the league average: 15.9 shots vs 13.4
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Valencia, away games only for Villarreal
Head to head
2–3–5Valencia wins · draws · Villarreal wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal vs Valencia | 2:1 | 22.02.26 | |
| Valencia vs Villarreal | 0:2 | 25.10.25 | |
| Villarreal vs Valencia | 1:1 | 15.02.25 | |
| Valencia vs Villarreal | 1:1 | 31.08.24 | |
| Villarreal vs Valencia | 1:0 | 17.03.24 | |
| Valencia vs Villarreal | 3:1 | 02.01.24 | |
| Valencia vs Villarreal | 1:1 | 03.05.23 | |
| Villarreal vs Valencia | 2:1 | 31.12.22 | |
| Villarreal vs Valencia | 2:0 | 19.04.22 | |
| Valencia vs Villarreal | 2:0 | 30.10.21 |
- both scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 3 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Athletic Bilbao | 7 | 2-3-2 | 7–6 | 9 | WDDD |
| 12 | Villarreal | 9 | 2-3-4 | 13–13 | 9 | LWWLD |
| 13 | Espanyol | 9 | 2-2-5 | 11–12 | 8 | WLLDL |
| 18 | Elche | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11–17 | 7 | DLWDD |
| 19 | Valencia | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6–15 | 6 | LWLDD |
| 20 | Málaga | 9 | 0-4-5 | 6–18 | 4 | DLLDL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1521
- 16-3013
- 31-4501
- 46-6022
- 61-7510
- 76-9017
- 0-1501
- 16-3021
- 31-4556
- 46-6011
- 61-7511
- 76-9034
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
