18 Oct
Angers vs Marseille: AI prediction and betting pick
On 18 October, Angers host Marseille. The AI models' pick is under 2.5 goals at 2.31: 8 of 16 models chose it.
- Ligue 1, matchday 7 of 34
- +14°, mostly clear, wind 16 km/h
- Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers
published UTC
AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals
2.31AI models' pick · 8 of 16 for this bet, 8 for others
Split panelOur football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
likely score
1:2 9%2:1 8%2:2 6%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 3 days an Angers win drifted from 3.10 to 3.22 — fewer bets on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Under 2.5: 2.31 → 2.31 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Over 2.5 1.62 → 1.61, Under 2.5 2.32 → 2.31.
Price changes
| When | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 · our bet |
|---|---|---|
| We published under 2.5 goals at 2.31 | ||
| 1.61−0.01 | 2.31 | |
| 1.62 | 2.31−0.01 | |
| 1.62opened | 2.32opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for under 2.5 goals. 5 more went for a Marseille win. The other 3 chose a bet each: double chance, a Marseille handicap and a total-goals bet.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 13.10 at 16:02 UTC
Goals look hard to come by here, because both attacks are stuttering. Marseille have managed an average of 0.7 goals in their three away games this season and conceded 1, an average of 1.7 goals a game, and not one of those matches produced more than two goals — nor has there been a single one in which both teams scored. Angers are just as frugal at home: a goal a game with an average of 2.3 goals, and over 2.5 goals landed in only one of three. A wind of 25 km/h and the fact that the two sides sit side by side in the table — Angers 12th on seven points, Marseille 13th on six after six rounds — both encourage caution, and the market rates the away win at 45%, with nothing to suggest a comfortable win. Our pick is under 2.5 goals at 2.31.
Where we could be wrong
The previous meetings are the worry, because nobody tends to keep a clean sheet in them: in January Angers lost 2-5 at home, and a year before that, in October 2025, the sides drew 2-2. Both defences are leaky — Angers have conceded 10, Marseille 12 — and one quick goal could open the game right up.
- 8 of 16 AI models back this bet: it is the most common answer, but the other half chose something else.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Angersno absences listed
Marseilleno absences listed
managers: Stephane Gilli · Bruno Genesio · main formations this season: 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Recent matches
Angers| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Brest | A | 1:5xG 1.4–3.8 | L |
| 19.09 | Troyes | H | 2:0xG 2.3–1.0 | W |
| 12.09 | Le Havre | A | 0:0 | D |
| 06.09 | Rennes | H | 1:2 | L |
| 29.08 | Auxerre | A | 3:1xG 1.6–1.8 | W |
| 23.08 | Lille | H | 0:2xG 2.0–1.2 | L |
Marseille| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | Troyes | A | 2:0xG 1.3–1.1 | W |
| 20.09 | Paris Saint-Germain | H | 1:2xG 1.8–4.3 | L |
| 17.09 | BeşiktaşEuropa League | A | 1:4 | L |
| 11.09 | Rennes | A | 0:1xG 1.3–1.9 | L |
| 06.09 | Paris | H | 2:3 | L |
| 30.08 | Monaco | A | 0:2xG 1.4–1.7 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Ligue 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.2 / 1.7 | 1.5 / 1.3 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.6 / 1.7 | 1.5 / 2.2 | 1.6 |
| shots | 14 / 16.8 | 11.8 / 16.7 | 13.8 |
| shots on target | 3 / 6.3 | 4.3 / 5.7 | 4.8 |
| corners | 7.2 / 5.8 | 4.3 / 4.8 | 4.8 |
| fouls | 10.8 / 13.2 | 10.5 / 10.8 | 11.9 |
| yellow cards | 1.7 / 1.7 | 1.3 / 2.3 | 1.6 |
| matches over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| both scored | 50% | 33% | |
| clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1 / 1.3 | 0.7 / 1 | |
| average total | 2.3 | 1.7 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| both scored | 33% | 0% | |
- Angers score less than the league average: 1.2 vs 1.5
- Marseille shoot less often than the league average: 11.8 shots vs 13.8
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Angers, away games only for Marseille
Head to head
1–3–6Angers wins · draws · Marseille wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angers vs Marseille | 2:5 | 17.01.26 | |
| Marseille vs Angers | 2:2 | 29.10.25 | |
| Angers vs Marseille | 0:2 | 09.02.25 | |
| Marseille vs Angers | 1:1 | 04.10.24 | |
| Marseille vs Angers | 3:1 | 14.05.23 | |
| Angers vs Marseille | 0:3 | 30.09.22 | |
| Marseille vs Angers | 5:2 | 04.02.22 | |
| Angers vs Marseille | 0:0 | 22.09.21 | |
| Marseille vs Angers | 3:2 | 16.05.21 | |
| Angers vs Marseille | 2:1 | 23.12.20 |
- both scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 7 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2-1-3 | 11–12 | 7 | LLDWW |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2-1-3 | 7–10 | 7 | LWDLW |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2-0-4 | 9–8 | 6 | WLLLL |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1-3-2 | 10–12 | 6 | LWDDL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1513
- 16-3012
- 31-4523
- 46-6021
- 61-7510
- 76-9010
- 0-1512
- 16-3001
- 31-4500
- 46-6032
- 61-7522
- 76-9031
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
