16 Oct
Le Mans vs Toulouse: AI prediction and betting pick
On 16 October, Le Mans host Toulouse. The AI models' pick is both teams to score at 1.60: 12 of 16 models chose it.
- Ligue 1, matchday 7 of 34
- +13°, overcast
- Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans
published UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.60Now 1.57 · 1.60 when published
AI models' pick · 12 of 16 for this bet, 4 for others
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
likely score
1:2 9%2:1 8%0:1 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 3 days a draw drifted from 3.44 to 3.52 — fewer bets on the draw.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.60 → 1.57 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (both teams score) has shortened from 1.60 to 1.57: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.57−0.03 | 2.28+0.04 | |
| We published both teams score at 1.60 | ||
| 1.60+0.01 | 2.24 | |
| 1.59opened | 2.24opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for both teams to score. 4 more went for over 2.5 goals.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 13.10 at 16:02 UTC
Neither Le Mans nor Toulouse have got through a single game this season without conceding. In Le Mans' three home matches both teams have scored every time, with an average of 3.7 goals there, 2 of their own and 1.7 against. Toulouse tell the same story on the road: 2 scored and 2 conceded per game in three away trips, an average of 4 goals, and not once has the opponent been shut out. The two sit side by side near the foot of the Ligue 1 table, 14th and 15th on six points after six matches, and a tight, scoreless stalemate suits neither of them.
Where we could be wrong
There is a doubt, though. Toulouse have drawn a blank twice this season and both of those games were at home, where they look less comfortable than on their travels. Le Mans keep the ball only 41.8% of the time and manage 11 shots a game, so if the hosts drop deep and concentrate on defending their goal, they may not find the net themselves. We're still backing both teams to score at 1.60.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Injuries and suspensions
Le Mansno absences listed
Toulouseno absences listed
managers: Patrick Videira · Jens Askou · main formations this season: 3-1-4-2 · 4-2-3-1
Recent matches
Le Mans| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Paris Saint-Germain | A | 1:3xG 1.4–4.3 | L |
| 02.10 | Guingampclub friendly | A | 1:2 | L |
| 19.09 | Lorient | H | 2:1xG 0.9–1.0 | W |
| 13.09 | Lens | H | 2:2xG 2.6–1.6 | D |
| 05.09 | Nice | A | 1:1xG 1.3–1.1 | D |
| 30.08 | Rennes | A | 2:3xG 3.1–3.1 | L |
Toulouse| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Monaco | A | 2:2xG 1.5–1.3 | D |
| 03.10 | PAUclub friendly | H | 2:3 | L |
| 19.09 | Le Havre | H | 3:2xG 1.9–2.3 | W |
| 12.09 | Lorient | A | 2:2 | D |
| 03.09 | Lille | H | 0:1 | L |
| 29.08 | Brest | A | 2:2xG 1.1–3.0 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Ligue 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.7 / 2 | 1.5 / 1.8 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.6 / 2.2 | 2.1 / 1.5 | 1.6 |
| shots | 10.5 / 17.2 | 13.7 / 15.2 | 13.8 |
| shots on target | 4.7 / 5.5 | 4.5 / 5 | 4.8 |
| corners | 2.8 / 6.5 | 4.5 / 4.8 | 4.8 |
| fouls | 14.8 / 10 | 16.7 / 12.7 | 11.9 |
| yellow cards | 2.5 / 2 | 1.7 / 1.3 | 1.6 |
| matches over 2.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| both scored | 100% | 67% | |
| clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 2 / 1.7 | 2 / 2 | |
| average total | 3.7 | 4 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| both scored | 100% | 100% | |
- Le Mans shoot less often than the league average: 10.5 shots vs 13.8
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Le Mans, away games only for Toulouse
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2-0-4 | 9–8 | 6 | WLLLL |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1-3-2 | 10–12 | 6 | LWDDL |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1-3-2 | 9–11 | 6 | DWDLD |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2-0-4 | 8–16 | 6 | LWWLL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1521
- 16-3012
- 31-4533
- 46-6041
- 61-7503
- 76-9012
- 0-1510
- 16-3002
- 31-4503
- 46-6050
- 61-7523
- 76-9013
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
