17 Oct
Lille vs Brest: AI prediction and betting pick
On 17 October, Lille host Brest. The AI models' pick is both teams to score at 1.64: 13 of 16 models chose it.
- Ligue 1, matchday 7 of 34
- +10°, clear
- Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille
published UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.64AI models' pick · 13 of 16 for this bet, 3 for others
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
likely score
2:1 10%2:0 8%1:0 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 3 days a Brest win shortened from 4.67 to 4.10 — money is coming in on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.64 → 1.64 since we publishedView
The biggest move is both teams score: from 1.68 to 1.64.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| We published both teams score at 1.64 | ||
| 1.64−0.01 | 2.15+0.02 | |
| 1.65−0.01 | 2.13+0.01 | |
| 1.66−0.02 | 2.12+0.04 | |
| 1.68opened | 2.08opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for both teams to score. 2 more went for a Lille win. One more went for over 2.5 goals.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 13.10 at 16:02 UTC
Brest's away form makes the case for goals at both ends. In three away games this season both sides have scored every time, with an average of 3.3 goals in those matches — 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Lille have not been kept scoreless at home either, and the last two meetings finished 1-1 in February 2026 and 3-3 in August 2025. The market leans the same way: both teams to score is rated at 57%, and over two days the home win has drifted from 1.68 to 1.81, so nobody is banking on Lille keeping a clean sheet.
Where we could be wrong
But what if Lille's home run holds? At the Pierre-Mauroy they have conceded only once in three matches and kept two clean sheets, while Brest already have one game this season in which they failed to score at all. If the visitors park their open approach and start cautiously, a single goal between the two sides would be enough to send the bet down. We're still backing both teams to score at 1.64.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Lilleno absences listed
Brestno absences listed
managers: Davide Ancelotti · Julien Lachuer · main formations this season: 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Recent matches
Lille| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Le Havre | H | 1:0xG 1.4–1.3 | W |
| 02.10 | Zulte Waregemclub friendly | H | 2:1 | W |
| 20.09 | Nice | A | 1:2xG 1.6–1.5 | L |
| 13.09 | Troyes | H | 2:0xG 1.6–0.4 | W |
| 08.09 | Real BetisChampions League | H | 2:3 | L |
| 03.09 | Toulouse | A | 1:0 | W |
Brest| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Angers | H | 5:1xG 3.8–1.4 | W |
| 03.10 | Monzaclub friendly | H | 2:2 | D |
| 20.09 | Auxerre | A | 1:2xG 0.3–1.0 | L |
| 13.09 | Paris Saint-Germain | H | 0:1xG 1.2–1.2 | L |
| 05.09 | Le Havre | A | 2:1xG 2.4–2.0 | W |
| 29.08 | Toulouse | H | 2:2xG 3.0–1.1 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Ligue 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.5 / 0.7 | 2 / 1.5 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.4 / 1.7 | 2.2 / 1.2 | 1.6 |
| shots | 11.5 / 16.2 | 19 / 11.2 | 13.8 |
| shots on target | 5.5 / 3.8 | 6.3 / 4.2 | 4.8 |
| corners | 3 / 5.3 | 5.3 / 3.8 | 4.8 |
| fouls | 11.7 / 13.7 | 13.3 / 14 | 11.9 |
| yellow cards | 1.3 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 1.5 | 1.6 |
| matches over 2.5 | 33% | 83% | |
| both scored | 33% | 83% | |
| clean sheets | 67% | 0% | |
| failed to score | 0% | 17% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1.7 / 0.7 | 1.7 / 1.7 | |
| average total | 2.3 | 3.3 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 33% | 100% | |
| both scored | 33% | 100% | |
- Lille shoot less often than the league average: 11.5 shots vs 13.8
- Brest shoot more often than the league average: 19 shots vs 13.8
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Lille, away games only for Brest
Head to head
3–5–2Lille wins · draws · Brest wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille vs Brest | 1:1 | 14.02.26 | |
| Brest vs Lille | 3:3 | 17.08.25 | |
| Brest vs Lille | 2:0 | 10.05.25 | |
| Lille vs Brest | 3:1 | 06.12.24 | |
| Brest vs Lille | 1:1 | 17.03.24 | |
| Lille vs Brest | 1:0 | 22.10.23 | |
| Lille vs Brest | 2:1 | 24.02.23 | |
| Brest vs Lille | 0:0 | 11.01.23 | |
| Brest vs Lille | 2:0 | 22.01.22 | |
| Lille vs Brest | 1:1 | 23.10.21 |
- both scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 3 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4-2-0 | 10–5 | 14 | DWDWW |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4-1-1 | 9–4 | 13 | WLWWD |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4-1-1 | 12–10 | 13 | WLWWW |
| 6 | Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 3-2-1 | 11–8 | 11 | WWWLD |
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 2-2-2 | 12–9 | 8 | WLLWD |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2-2-2 | 6–6 | 8 | WLDWL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1520
- 16-3030
- 31-4510
- 46-6000
- 61-7511
- 76-9032
- 0-1522
- 16-3040
- 31-4521
- 46-6023
- 61-7511
- 76-9021
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
