18 Oct
Lorient vs Monaco: AI prediction and betting pick
On 18 October, Lorient host Monaco. The AI models' pick is both teams to score at 1.72: 7 of 16 models chose it.
- Ligue 1, matchday 7 of 34
- +14°, mostly clear, wind 21 km/h
- Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, Lorient
published UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.72AI models' pick · 7 of 16 for this bet, 9 for others
Split panelOur football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
likely score
1:2 9%0:1 9%0:0 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 3 days a Lorient win drifted from 3.52 to 3.58 — fewer bets on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.72 → 1.73 since we publishedView
The biggest move is both teams score: from 1.69 to 1.73.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.73+0.01 | 2.02−0.01 | |
| We published both teams score at 1.72 | ||
| 1.72+0.04 | 2.03−0.06 | |
| 1.68−0.01 | 2.09 | |
| 1.69opened | 2.09opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for both teams to score. 5 more went for a Monaco win. The other 4 chose other bets: double chance and a Monaco handicap.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 13.10 at 16:02 UTC
Monaco have been stingy on the road: 0.7 goals conceded per away game, an average of two goals in their trips and over 2.5 goals in only one of three — hardly the friendliest numbers for goals at both ends. The other side of it is that in those same three away games their opponents did find the net 67% of the time, and the same share of Lorient's home games at Le Moustoir have featured goals from both sides, with the hosts producing 1.3 goals a game at an average total of 2.7.
The previous meetings point the same way: 1-3 in January, 3-1 in September 2025, 2-2 in March 2024 and 2-2 in September 2023. The market rates the chance of both teams scoring at 54%, and a Monaco attack with nine goals in five Ligue 1 rounds gives little reason to expect a clean sheet. Our pick is both teams to score at 1.72.
Where we could be wrong
The risk is a scrappy night in front of goal: drizzle and a 19 km/h wind do not help precise attacking play, and Lorient have already kept three clean sheets this season and drawn a blank once. If the hosts sit deeper against the league leaders, the game could easily be settled by one or two goals from one side only.
- 7 of 16 AI models back this bet: it is the most common answer, but more than half chose something else.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Lorientno absences listed
Monacono absences listed
managers: Alexandre Dujeux · Luis Filipe · main formations this season: 3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1
Recent matches
Lorient| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Paris | H | 1:0xG 0.6–1.0 | W |
| 19.09 | Le Mans | A | 1:2xG 1.0–0.9 | L |
| 12.09 | Toulouse | H | 2:2 | D |
| 05.09 | Lens | A | 1:0xG 1.6–1.2 | W |
| 29.08 | Troyes | H | 1:2xG 1.1–2.1 | L |
| 22.08 | Nice | A | 0:0xG 1.3–1.1 | D |
Monaco| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Toulouse | H | 2:2xG 1.3–1.5 | D |
| 03.10 | Pisaclub friendly | H | 2:0 | W |
| 18.09 | Lens | H | 2:1xG 1.8–1.2 | W |
| 12.09 | Strasbourg | A | 1:1xG 1.1–1.0 | D |
| 04.09 | Paris Saint-Germain | A | 2:1 | W |
| 30.08 | Marseille | H | 2:0xG 1.7–1.4 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Ligue 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1 / 1 | 1.7 / 0.8 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.1 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.3 | 1.6 |
| shots | 10 / 13.8 | 11.2 / 14 | 13.8 |
| shots on target | 3.5 / 3.8 | 4.5 / 4.3 | 4.8 |
| corners | 2.5 / 5.8 | 3.7 / 5.7 | 4.8 |
| fouls | 9.2 / 15 | 10.8 / 11.3 | 11.9 |
| yellow cards | 1 / 2.2 | 1.8 / 1.3 | 1.6 |
| matches over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| both scored | 50% | 67% | |
| clean sheets | 50% | 33% | |
| failed to score | 17% | 0% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1.3 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 0.7 | |
| average total | 2.7 | 2 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| both scored | 67% | 67% | |
- Lorient score less than the league average: 1 vs 1.5
- Monaco shoot less often than the league average: 11.2 shots vs 13.8
- Monaco unbeaten in the last 5 league games
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Lorient, away games only for Monaco
Head to head
3–5–2Lorient wins · draws · Monaco wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco vs Lorient | 1:3 | 16.01.26 | |
| Lorient vs Monaco | 3:1 | 27.09.25 | |
| Monaco vs Lorient | 2:2 | 17.03.24 | |
| Lorient vs Monaco | 2:2 | 17.09.23 | |
| Monaco vs Lorient | 3:1 | 16.04.23 | |
| Lorient vs Monaco | 2:2 | 11.01.23 | |
| Monaco vs Lorient | 0:0 | 13.02.22 | |
| Lorient vs Monaco | 1:0 | 13.08.21 | |
| Monaco vs Lorient | 2:2 | 14.02.21 | |
| Lorient vs Monaco | 2:5 | 06.01.21 |
- both scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 8 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4-2-0 | 10–5 | 14 | DWDWW |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4-1-1 | 9–4 | 13 | WLWWD |
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 2-2-2 | 12–9 | 8 | WLLWD |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2-2-2 | 6–6 | 8 | WLDWL |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2-2-2 | 5–7 | 8 | WWLDL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1501
- 16-3001
- 31-4521
- 46-6022
- 61-7511
- 76-9010
- 0-1520
- 16-3010
- 31-4521
- 46-6033
- 61-7520
- 76-9001
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
