18 Oct
Paris vs Rennes: AI prediction and betting pick
On 18 October, Paris host Rennes. The AI models' pick is Paris to win at 2.29: 11 of 16 models chose it, 1 more went in the same direction.
- Ligue 1, matchday 7 of 34
- +12°, cloudy, wind 16 km/h
- Stade Charléty, Paris
published UTC
AI models' pick: Paris to win
2.29Now 2.25 · 2.29 when published
AI models' pick · 11 of 16 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
likely score
2:1 9%1:2 7%1:0 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 3 days a Paris win shortened from 2.29 to 2.25 — money is coming in on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Paris: 2.29 → 2.25 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (a Paris win) has shortened from 2.29 to 2.25: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Paris · our bet | Draw | Rennes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.25−0.04 | 3.47+0.02 | 3.08+0.09 | |
| We published a Paris win at 2.29 | |||
| 2.29 | 3.45 | 2.99+0.01 | |
| 2.29 | 3.45+0.04 | 2.98−0.03 | |
| 2.29opened | 3.41opened | 3.01opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for a Paris win. 3 more chose close bets in the same direction: Paris draw no bet and Paris not losing. 2 more each for over 2.5 goals and for at least one side failing to score.
- 9 of 161our betodds 2.29Claude
GrokDeepSeek Flash
GLMMiniMaxMistral
Dots3-NoteNemotron SuperNemotron Ultra - 2 of 16DNB 1same directionodds 1.67ChatGPT
Gemini - 1 of 161Xsame directionodds 1.38
Sonar - 2 of 16O 2.5odds 1.66QwenXiaomi MiMo
- 2 of 16BTTS noodds 2.38DeepSeekKimi
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 13.10 at 16:02 UTC
Three home games in Ligue 1 have cost Paris just 0.3 goals a game, two of them clean sheets. Rennes on the road look nothing like that: a goal scored and 2.5 conceded per game, and not one away match in which they have kept a clean sheet. The market still treats the game as level, 2.29 on the hosts against 2.99 on the visitors, and the prices have not moved at all in two days, which leaves Paris rated at 41% at a price of almost two and a half. Recent form backs the home side too: eight scored and four conceded in the last five rounds, 11 points from six games.
Where we could be wrong
The previous meetings are the awkward part. Rennes won both, 1-0 in Paris in November 2025 and 2-1 at home in May. The visitors see more of the ball (56.2%), shoot more often at 18.8 attempts a game and sit higher in the table on 13 points to 11. Rain and wind around kick-off should suit whoever is happier to keep it simple and play on the counter. Even so, we're backing a Paris win at 2.29.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Parisno absences listed
Rennesno absences listed
managers: Liam Rosenior · Franck Haise · main formations this season: 4-2-3-1 · 4-1-4-1
Recent matches
Paris| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Lorient | A | 0:1xG 1.0–0.6 | L |
| 19.09 | Strasbourg | H | 2:1xG 1.1–0.2 | W |
| 12.09 | Lyon | H | 0:0 | D |
| 06.09 | Marseille | A | 3:2 | W |
| 30.08 | Nice | H | 3:0xG 2.4–0.8 | W |
| 22.08 | Troyes | A | 0:0xG 1.8–0.4 | D |
Rennes| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | Auxerre | H | 4:1xG 2.6–1.8 | W |
| 02.10 | Lavalclub friendly | A | 0:1 | L |
| 19.09 | Lyon | A | 0:4xG 1.4–3.1 | L |
| 16.09 | Sturm GrazEuropa League | A | 0:0 | D |
| 11.09 | Marseille | H | 1:0xG 1.9–1.3 | W |
| 06.09 | Angers | A | 2:1 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Ligue 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.3 / 0.7 | 2 / 1.7 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.7 / 0.6 | 1.8 / 2.2 | 1.6 |
| shots | 13.8 / 9.3 | 17 / 15 | 13.8 |
| shots on target | 4.3 / 3 | 6.2 / 5.3 | 4.8 |
| corners | 4 / 3.5 | 6.2 / 6.8 | 4.8 |
| fouls | 13.7 / 9.8 | 13 / 11.3 | 11.9 |
| yellow cards | 2.2 / 1.2 | 2.2 / 2.2 | 1.6 |
| matches over 2.5 | 50% | 83% | |
| both scored | 33% | 67% | |
| clean sheets | 50% | 17% | |
| failed to score | 50% | 17% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1.7 / 0.3 | 1 / 2.5 | |
| average total | 2 | 3.5 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| both scored | 33% | 50% | |
- Paris score less than the league average: 1.3 vs 1.5
- Rennes score more than the league average: 2 vs 1.5
- Rennes: 4 wins in the last 5 league games
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Paris, away games only for Rennes
Head to head
0–0–2Paris wins · draws · Rennes wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes vs Paris | 2:1 | 10.05.26 | |
| Paris vs Rennes | 0:1 | 07.11.25 |
- both scored in 1 of the last 2 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 1 of 2
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4-1-1 | 9–4 | 13 | WLWWD |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4-1-1 | 12–10 | 13 | WLWWW |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3-2-1 | 11–4 | 11 | LWDWD |
| 5 | Paris | 6 | 3-2-1 | 8–4 | 11 | LWDWW |
| 6 | Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 3-2-1 | 11–8 | 11 | WWWLD |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1511
- 16-3030
- 31-4500
- 46-6021
- 61-7501
- 76-9030
- 0-1541
- 16-3014
- 31-4511
- 46-6022
- 61-7501
- 76-9033
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
